Close Games And The Turnover Battle
October 17th, 2025
Staying away from picks.
Joe has a hunch if the Bucs pull off the upset on Monday night in Motown, the only way it will happen is the Bucs taking advantage of a turnover.
The Bucs have done a good job with turnovers, currently +4 in the turnover differential battle. Baker Mayfield, who was tied for the league lead last year in picks, has been remarkable in whittling that number (16) down to just one through six games.
Additionally, the Bucs have only lost two fumbles.
Meanwhile, maligned Bucs cornerback Jamel Dean is on a heater with two picks and a forced fumble in the past three games. Yes, you read that correctly.
Bucs coach Todd Bowles yesterday explained that he believes one turnover could mean the difference between a loss and the Bucs going 6-1.
“Those decide the games – it’s clear to see,” Bowles said of takeaways. “Obviously, we’ve been doing a great job offensively not turning it over and creating ones of late on defense.
“Against a really good team [like Detroit] this time of the season, it’s going to be critical coming down to the end of the ball game.”
Last year the Bucs prevailed in a slobberknocker game with the Lions winning 20-16. The difference? Detroit quarterback Jared Goff had one more interception (two) than Mayfield (one).
Mayfield seemed to think that despite only throwing one interception so far this season, he can do better.
“Mentally, you can put more of an emphasis on it,” Mayfield said of protecting the ball. “There are times where I am taking chances and I think there are throws early on, especially you look at Week 1 Atlanta, some turnover-worthy plays, for sure that just did not happen to go that way.
“It is a balance of understanding where we are at in the game, needing to take shots, certain things like that and just being on the good side of things this year. Hopefully, keep that rolling.”
Turnovers are nice but getting points off turnovers is just as critical, perhaps more so. With a depleted receiving corps and Bucky Irving not expected to play, can the Bucs put points on the scoreboard after a pick or fumble recovery?
Ringing up 30 points without Mike Evans, without Chris Godwin, without Emeka Egbuka, without Jalen McMillan and without Irving against a solid defense like San Francisco suggests the Bucs can.
October 17th, 2025 at 12:04 am
I saw where Baker had 8 touchdowns of 20+ yards. No one else has more than 4. Looks like he is accurate at the long ball.
October 17th, 2025 at 12:20 am
What’s this? A Joe not scoffing at turnovers? Methinks, I must be dreaming. 🙂
October 17th, 2025 at 12:33 am
We got this one too. All good. And im taking vacation time at work so i can watch it.
Now go get Maxx Crosby, Jason 🙂
October 17th, 2025 at 1:06 am
MadMax Says:
October 17th, 2025 at 12:33 am
Now go get Maxx Crosby, Jason 🙂
^^^^^^^^^^
Do I believe that Jason Licht would give up more draft capital than other teams to acquire an elite pass rusher? No, not at all.
October 17th, 2025 at 1:09 am
Mayfield with the very self aware comment. He is The Dude. Absolutely.
October 17th, 2025 at 1:17 am
^ its technically a 2nd since we’ll be picking very late….i think he’ll do it, just wait. But you’re right, the firsts lately which ive been behind have hit…the 2nd’s not so much. But we’re in win mode now, so i think a 1st for Maxx and picking up his salary is worth it. Jason can restructure things and work under the salary cap.
October 17th, 2025 at 2:40 am
I can hear Jason now …lol…”dammit max, got me going after another Maxx” haha
when it works and is coming together, roll with it. Mr. Brady is over there…he can help us work something out
October 17th, 2025 at 3:28 am
I’ll only drink NA Beer for a month if Jason pulls the trigger on a trade for a decent pass rusher. He just doesn’t do it. Whether it’s a good or bad thing, he just doesn’t do it.
October 17th, 2025 at 5:27 am
^ dude, we dealt a 3rd for JPP, so STFU with that kind of non sense
October 17th, 2025 at 5:59 am
I think we have a great shot at beating the Lions either way. Baker has limited his turnovers this year. If our defenders can show up in the first half? We got this.
Go Bucs!
October 17th, 2025 at 6:32 am
Blitz the guy.
October 17th, 2025 at 6:57 am
We only have ONE fumble. I refuse to concede that Bucky coughed it up
October 17th, 2025 at 6:58 am
Myles Garrett in the middle next to Vita Vea would be far more disruptive- and he’d cause our OLB’s to get substantially more sacks too!
October 17th, 2025 at 7:44 am
Stpetematt, you don’t know what you’re talking about. Garrett was Browns 1 pick in 2017. Baker was Browns 1 pick in 2018. Garrett had a winless rookie year 0-16. They had been 1-15 the year before. Bakers rookie year he was 7-5-1 in the 13 games he played. Mayfield has always believed that the QB is the leader of the team. He jumped on Garrett’s butt for that stupid play against the Steelers smacking the QB with his own helmet and was suspended for multiple games and Baker called him out for hurting his team. Diva Garrett didn’t like that. Garrett worked behind the scenes to screw Mayfield. So Stpetematt, maybe we could trade Baker for Myles. Myles Garrett is a heck of a player. He is also locker room poison for a team first group like we’re building.
October 17th, 2025 at 8:10 am
turnovers will be the key to this game!!!!
BUCS defense will have 5 sacks and 3 INTs!!!!!!
BUCS 32
LIONS 17
6-1!!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
October 17th, 2025 at 8:32 am
Beeej….
Soooooo agree.
One of the many replay officialing decisions we got screwed on.
Emeka’s awesome diving catch that they decided to not even review and the Jets TD catch that was dropped in the endzone but they awarded the TD on, were purely terrible.
So there are many flaws this system… not reviewing a play that should be reviewed is a travesty and then I was always thinking that when they did instant replay that they would review it correctly but they can’t even get that right.
I guess even technology can be worked around and bias (Vegas???) can still prevail.
October 17th, 2025 at 8:38 am
Lions extend olive Branch, set up matchup between backup DBs and backup CBs. STILL not worried about the offense though. Limit hits on Baker with bookend TE looks. Big game for Otton. Might finally see Culp do something. Tucker’s gonna have to do something because White’s looking at a serious workload. Our tackling in the secondary is vastly improved, should help against Lions high completion percentage attack. Should be some long drives and clock burning this week. Can we pressure QB? Need good final injury report on defensive side.
October 17th, 2025 at 9:16 am
@813: I sure hope so. Feeling actually a little bit of optimism about this one. Still, Bucs have got to outplay the refs, too. Man, the Jets really are a sorry lot. All that ref help and no win? Pathetic. Go Bucs: Defang Detroit and outwit the refs!!!
October 17th, 2025 at 9:22 am
The Bucs have improved on the biggest issues that were causing this team to lose last year. I don’t think it’d be an upset if the Bucs win. If they protect the ball they’ll win by 2 scores. This offense is hot and if the defense can put a complete game together then watch out….
October 17th, 2025 at 9:57 am
ORLBUCFAN
i respect DET and dan campbell a ton…
i think this game will play out just like the 9ers game….
you’re right about the refs unfortunately lol!!!
6-1!!!!!
GO BUCS!!!!!
October 17th, 2025 at 11:56 am
Detroit… +49 point differential. Bucs… +14. Which, happens to be middle of the pack in the league. And, Campbell & Goff together, are 20-8 against the spread following a Loss. Too many close games + Too banged-up with injuries = your 5.5 point DAWG.
October 17th, 2025 at 12:11 pm
I wouldn’t play Mike. I’d just roll with what you got up there on that turf, and see what happens. Focus on keeping Bake clean, by getting the ball outta his hands ‘quick’ with a short passing game. Mix-it up a little, and catch ‘em off guard by going a little no-huddle. ‘Dink & Dunk’ them to DEATH, all up and down the field, with some ‘quick-hitting’ run-plays. Wear ‘em down, control the clock, and try to keep it close. Then, get that late turnover, and Make ‘Em PAY!!!!
October 17th, 2025 at 12:28 pm
@813
I think you’re right. I think it’ll end up simulator in a lot of ways to how the 49ers game ended up but it will probably be slightly tougher to pull it off.
It would be For the Best if we came Right Out and jabbed them Hard in the nose and then Quickly Punched them straight in the mouth. It Really All Comes Down To what Grizz has up his sleeve…
@Bee
Bingo!
I’d add that we REALLY NEED the D line to smother Goff. THAT’S a tall order bug if we can produce the proper amount of pressure, their levy Will Break. And that’s on Todd. How good his original game plan and THEN he Has To remain aggressive and flexible. He HAS TO remain Closely Engaged and pushing hard against the envelope!
On the other hand if he sets it to what Has Been the usual “cruise control” game plan (until Very recently), and lightly at best maneuvers until the half,…. It WILL BE a long night. So… Let’s hope he’s floating like a butterfly and stinging like a “Bee” on Monday night..
October 17th, 2025 at 12:37 pm
Did I miss something? Why would the Raiders trade Crosby?
October 17th, 2025 at 12:38 pm
BOLD PREDICTION:
SirVocea seals win in Detroit with pick six.
October 17th, 2025 at 1:59 pm
Turnover differential. A stat that REALLY DOES matter.
Baker has been great protecting the ball this year and we’re starting to get turnovers on D.
We’ve got a few guys due to force a turnover. Zion, Morrison, Parrish, SVD, Winfield, Tykee… C’mon boys, make it happen!