Stats Suggest Defense Needs Major Improvement For A Super Bowl Run
September 2nd, 2025
Recent history shows…
Clearly the Bucs are mostly all-in for trying to make a playoff run.
They’re much more all-in than the Cowboys were last year when Jerry Jones said the team was all-in before the season yet did nothing to upgrade the roster.
The Bucs sure looked committed this offseason when they drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round and signed edge rusher Haason Reddick.
(Yes, Joe knows the cynics out there would say if the Bucs were all-in they would have rented Micah Parsons.)
The Bucs also loaded up on cornerbacks in the draft. Last year, the Bucs had no legitimate depth at corner. Now they do.
It’s a good thing the Bucs drafted Reddick and drafted Jacob Parrish and Benjamin Morrison. Based on history this decade, the Bucs must improve DVOA to get to a Super Bowl.
What is DVOA? It stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. It’s a stat widely used by statgeeks and gamblers that measures efficiency. It was developed years ago by Aaron Schatz, the former owner of Football Outsiders (RIP). Even NFL teams use this measurement in their analytics departments.
You can read how Schatz developed DVOA here.
TikTok NFL analyst Theo Ash posted something on Twitter yesterday that intrigued Joe. Ash noted the median defensive DVOA of every NFC champion this decade is No. 3. Since Bucs coach Todd Bowles took over as head coach in 2022, the Bucs haven’t been close to that.
Joe did a little digging and here is how the Bucs’ defense has ranked in DVOA since Bowles arrived in Tampa Bay in 2019.
2019: 13th
2020: 4th
2021: 4th
2022: 14th
2023: 18th
2024: 11th
So what happened in 2022 other than Bowles took over as head coach? Jason Pierre-Paul was gone and Bucs sack king Shaq Barrett ruptured his Achilles in a midseason home game against Baltimore. He was never the same.
But Joe, Shaq had 19.5 sacks in 2019 and the Bucs had the fourth-best run defense and the DVOA was not great!
Yeah. And the Bucs also had Vernon Hargreaves starting at corner opposite of second-year corner Carlton Davis. They were learning a new defense, too. Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting were rookies. And, the Bucs had the fourth-most points per game in 2019 yet still had a 7-9 record.
Notice that the next two years when the Bucs won the Super Bowl and then damn near went back to the Super Bowl in the 2021 season, the defensive DVOA ranking was No. 4.
So Ash’s observation seems to hold water.
Bowles has shown he can transform a defense with the Bucs before. He’ll have to do so again if the Bucs want to make NFL history this fall.
The median NFC conference champion ranks 3rd in defensive DVOA since 2000.
The median AFC conference champion champion ranks 11.5 in defensive DVOA since 2000
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) September 1, 2025
September 2nd, 2025 at 4:30 am
Hope we don’t regret passing on Parsons….
September 2nd, 2025 at 5:33 am
As much as I love the Bucs, their D is definitely not a Super Bowl defense. Just look at Buc history of SB wins. Too many ifs, hopes, and doubts about the D. It’s a prove it year.
September 2nd, 2025 at 5:45 am
Fascinating concept Joe, for fantasy football. The linked article on how Schatz developed DVOA led me to the conclusion that DVOA is based on 2 words … ‘Trust me’. A computer crunches all the numbers, but SOMEONE making a bazillion value decisions along the way created the algorithms that the computers use to crunch those numbers. Yards is the obvious basis of comparison, with all kinds of ‘special rules’ developed to allow useful comparisons.
I suspect that DVOA is quite useful in evaluating trends, but not necessarily specific outcomes, simply because ‘yards’ don’t always tell the whole story … but POINTS do. In 2019 for instance, Jameis threw 30 INTs that included SEVEN Pick-6 for 49 points counted against the defense. The offense also had an additional 11 fumbles lost. The Bucs’ defense never saw the field on any of those 41 situations, yet got tagged with the POINTS ALLOWED. That same season, our defense had 2 Pick-6 of their own, plus 4 fumble returns resulting in 43 points for the Bucs’ offense.
So in 2019 the Bucs offense ended up ranked #3, scoring 458 points. But they really scored 415 points & the Bucs’ defense contributed the other 43 points. And the Bucs’ defense ended up ranked #29, allowing 449 points to be scored against them. But in reality only 400 points were scored against our defense, with the other 49 points scored against our offense. The rankings for that season would’ve changed considerably if those ‘situations’ had never occurred.
September 2nd, 2025 at 5:50 am
Stats?
All you need is two eyeballs.
Heck, Stevie Wonder could see it.
September 2nd, 2025 at 5:53 am
So apparently Parsons is going to need an epidural to get on the field week one?
September 2nd, 2025 at 6:07 am
Its not that big of a jump to go from 11th in DVOA (the average of the AFC Champions btw) to 4th or 5th. Just having Winfield back to form along with Dennis and Reddick on the field playing well could accomplish that…
A top 5 scoring offense combined with a top 10 defense in points allowed can absolutely compete for a Super Bowl.
The important thing for a “good” team is being relatively healthy towards the end of the season and the whole team playing its best football in December and January. That is how Super Bowls are won!
September 2nd, 2025 at 6:44 am
Still have the same D/C. Don’t expect much improvement on defense
September 2nd, 2025 at 6:46 am
I go by on what I see. Bucs had trouble rushing the passer from the edge last year. They made up for that by not covering on the back end very well. They had trouble getting off the field on third downs. One problem would help solve the other. Solutions. Tighter coverage, not giving receivers 10 yards of cushion. Letting your edge rushers rush instead of having them drop so much into coverage. Simplify the defense. It shouldn’t take players their third season to play fast. Turn the defensive play calling over to a full time D.C.. It’s rediculous having Co D.C.s. Pick either Caldwell, Foote or Strong, let them own it. Has to be confusing to the players having two voices during the week, than having the H.C. calling it on Sundays.
September 2nd, 2025 at 7:27 am
Almost every single Bucs fan knows our defense is not very good for a variety of reasons. Why don’t the Bucs know? Why do they keep drafting players with serious injury history like Morrison and magically expect them to be in the rotation, or guys like JTS who hardly played in college. If they really wanted to win the SB they would have made a deal for a few premier players. Instead we have guys like Braswell and YaYa who are not very good.
On top of that we have a DC that drops his DL in coverage and plays soft zone.
His blitz combinations rarely work and this team gives up third and long all game. Hell they even give up 4th and long.
If you watched Philly last season, the reason they were successful is because they got pressure on the QB with their base 4 rushers, They didn’t need to blitz much. The Bucs can’t even get pressure with 6 rushers.
I hope I am wrong, but I think Bowles is a horrible coach with a talented team that will never get to the SB as long as he has control of the defense.
September 2nd, 2025 at 7:39 am
Can’t coach talent
September 2nd, 2025 at 7:46 am
They fired Trask for being streaky yet the Bucs defense has continued to be streaky year after year.
September 2nd, 2025 at 7:47 am
Some coordinators come in and get it done year one. I really haven’t seen much improvement in the last three years.. some games are great others are terrible.
September 2nd, 2025 at 8:07 am
Yeah a median doesn’t mean you have to be top 3 case closed
September 2nd, 2025 at 8:24 am
I agree with DR’s data, it’s defensive points allowed that count, especially in the last 5min and overtime.
September 2nd, 2025 at 8:27 am
Signing Reddick to a 1 year contract is committed but trading for Micah and signing him to a 4 year contract would be renting him…wtf….can’t believe what I’m reading.