Not Much Success In Rushing Success
September 11th, 2025
Good news/bad news.
There’s bad news and good news here. But as Gregory Peck once said in the movie “MacArthur,” good news can wait. Bad news can’t.
So Joe will start with the bad news. The Bucs’ run game stunk at Atlanta to begin the season. Just looking at Bucky Irving’s stats, you don’t have to be a trigonometry major to figure that out.
According to the advanced NFL stats Twitter feed of @DougAnalytics, the success rate of Bucs running plays was largely unsuccessful. The Bucs had the seventh-worst success rate on runs in the league on Week 1.
A successful play in advanced stats is when an offense gets 50 percent of yards needed to convert on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth downs.
So the Bucs struggled, running at a 31.6 success rate on running plays. Joe guesses a rearranged offensive line with two weeks to practice together was a factor.
Now the good news: The Bucs had better success with the run than the Dixie Chicks did with a healthy Bijan Robinson. That’s a very good thing. Atlanta had success on its running plays 29.2 percent of the time.
So while the Bucs’ running attack seemed stuck in park, their run defense seemed to be in midseason form.
And now Vita Vea may just be going up against a backup center on Monday night. That will be fun!
Offensive Rushing Success Rates
• Broken down by run concepts
• % within bars is the success rate of that run concept pic.twitter.com/nI1kPkyvfL— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) September 10, 2025
September 11th, 2025 at 12:34 am
I think poor/ predictable playcalling and poorly-timed running plays were the main reasons due our poor running game.
Last year, we threw on 1st downs a majority of the time and that setup our run game very nicely.
September 11th, 2025 at 12:35 am
*for not due
September 11th, 2025 at 12:44 am
The other ‘good’ news is that Houston was even worse, for what it’s worth.
September 11th, 2025 at 12:53 am
Looked alot like Leftnut/Canales run game to me. Tacklers in the backfield way too quickly.
Gotta give the O line a pass however. Last minute musical chairs did them no favors. Play calls?
Go Bucs!
September 11th, 2025 at 1:27 am
I agree with Erik on passing to set up the run. Coen attempted short yardage throws on early downs, letting WR/RBs get YAC. It was more unpredictable. I like what the Chargers did coming out throwing against KC, something no one expected them to do and it worked. It is still only game 1 for Grizz’.
September 11th, 2025 at 3:14 am
Not bashing Baker, he was hindered by not getting snaps before the game by Bowles, but if he’s more on target, in particular earlier in the game, it probably helps open up the running game more. Then again, the run game wasn’t nearly as creative as it was last year with Coen – meanwhile watching the Jags game, that looked like the Coen we saw last year, and the Jags had 200 yards rushing at 6.8ypc.
Wiz kid needs to just watch that Jags game for the play calling, maybe remember what was working last year, and along with the improved play we’ll see from Baker, that should fix things.
September 11th, 2025 at 3:39 am
OR Buc Says:
September 11th, 2025 at 1:27 am
I agree with Erik on passing to set up the run. Coen attempted short yardage throws on early downs, letting WR/RBs get YAC. It was more unpredictable.
———-
Correct, Coen did a fantastic job of simply mixing things up AND being very creative in the run game, with a ton of motion by the offensive line, after the ball was snapped, that really seemed to confuse defenses. Also, don’t forget on 3rd downs, he’d have Bucky and White out there, and would run quite a bit on 3rd down and short, again, keeping defenses off balance, and getting great production.
This offense is supposed to be the same offense, meaning all we’re doing is seeing the plays called in a different order, and that should be pretty easy to fix, all they need to do is look at what the Bucs called in various scenarios and then start comparing it to the Wiz Kid’s play calling, and that will tell the story of what is happening – if it’s just the reshuffled offensive line or Gizz being too predictable. In any case, I’d just replace the OC with AI and let it copy Coen from last year, it could do a better job than any human in replicating that.
September 11th, 2025 at 3:42 am
Moving that offensive line around had to have an impact on the running game. This offensive line is way better with Barton at center.