JoeBucsFan.com Picks A 10-7 Season
September 5th, 2025
Two points to get out of the way.
First, 10-7 is a strong record befitting of strong teams. Besides Lovie Smith’s 2012 Bears, 10-win teams in NFL history are nearly always very good. (Those Bears opened 7-1 and imploded; then the Bucs hired Lovie.)
Second, Sage of Tampa Bay Sports Ira Kaufman, the venerable JoeBucsFan.com columnist, says the Bucs are an 11-win team. “And I’m not budging!” Kaufman barked. “This team is damn good.”
Joe realizes 71.5 percent of fans polled here last week believe the Bucs will have 11 or more wins.
About 41 percent called 11 wins (the most popular answer) and another 30 percent chose either 12 or “13 or more wins.” About 18 percent went the 10-win route.
So Joe is not aligned with the majority of Bucs fans. Joe would love to be there, but getting to 11 was tough for Joe considering Josh Grizzard is a first-time playcaller, the Bucs are scary thin at inside linebacker, the Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin injuries, and the Bucs are relying heavily on three critical cogs who are old for their respective positions: Mike Evans, Lavonte David and Vita Vea. There’s also the Bucs’ struggles in prime time games.
Still, Joe is very confident in the Bucs being able to be a better 10-7 team than they were last year.
Yeah, you are what your record says you are, but Joe thinks the Bucs will/should play more consistent football this season. No more ‘oh, sh**, we’re 4-6 and need to climb our way out of this.’
No more struggling terribly against garbage clubs in December (at Carolina) and January (New Orleans at home).
This year, Joe expects to see a 2025 Bucs team that looks very ready for the postseason before it starts. And that’s really all that matters.
September 5th, 2025 at 5:58 pm
They are playing a tuff schedule. The key is winning at least 2 playoff games. I like that rookie Emeka and veteran baker.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:10 pm
Im going with 11-6, Joe. I think that’s actually conservative. Your Wirfs comments aren’t scaring me. Yet.
Go Bucs!
September 5th, 2025 at 6:11 pm
10 wins means a “strong” team. 11 wins means “damn good” according to the Sage. We were damn good the last couple of years. A couple of breaks and who knows? This year is different. We’re better than that. 13 wins ties the franchise record. Come on, this our 50th team is close to going down as the best team in Tampa history. 14+ wins. That won’t mean anything unless we win the Super Bowl also. So the 3rd Lombardi will be the icing on the cake.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:15 pm
I can see them winning more than 10 games pretty easy if they have some key wins early against the better teams. Bad thing is the last couple years they haven’t really showed up consistently against the upper tier NFL teams. Yeah they beat the Lions and Eagles, but when they played the Eagles they were dang near ready to fire their coach. The other thing is prime time games at night. I think this will be the biggest indicator if they are a real team. Gotta show up and win these prime time games
September 5th, 2025 at 6:21 pm
bowles needs the defense to step up or hes gone after this year
September 5th, 2025 at 6:21 pm
Late prognostications are generally a little bit better than the earlier ones, I suppose. Gotta play the games to find out.
Currently, we’re undefeated.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:31 pm
I believe 10 wins would be the bottom and 13 wins would be the top. Ithru my eyes! The Sage’s 11/6 is a very good guess if you had to pick one.
The BUCS need a statement win in Atlanta! If the players that start can do what they are paid to do, the Bucs will cover the spread. Perhaps 27 to 13.. IMHO. The road to Levi’s Stadium in February runs through Atlanta on Sunday!! Get it done!?
September 5th, 2025 at 6:33 pm
Thanks Joe but who cares? It’s an opinion. I have been wagering on NFL football for more than 50 years and I put no value on preseason selections, though I do value odds makers “numbers.” There is always regression in the NFL and it works in both directions, those that were horrible last year, and those that were good. The Buccaneers are starting with a lot of adversity due to injuries. They will need to make adjustments. The line between winning and losing is small. Witness last night’s game. The Falcons played no starters during the preseason; that gives a big advantage to t he Buccaneers who are disadvantaged by the injuries. Should be interesting.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:34 pm
If you’re correct, we need to replace Bowles. There is too much talent for on 10-7.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:36 pm
I had them as an 11-win team for both of the prior two seasons. And, they should’ve been. With a better coach they would have been. I’ve learned my lesson for this season, though.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:38 pm
Joe,
Most of us early 11-6 predictors (myself included) are now on the 10-7 bus.
Too many injuries. Wirfs was a big blow. JMac was a big blow. Otton, Vea, and AWJ are already dinged up.
Well, the poll was after JMac injury, and Joe was 10-7 before that. –Joe
September 5th, 2025 at 6:47 pm
Still a lot of question marks with this team. Will Reddick play like he did last year with the Jets or the guy that was with the Eagles? Will Grizzard be a good play caller? Will Winfield return to the All Pro player he was 2 years ago? Will Dennis stay healthy? Will Bowles continue to play soft zone and drop his D lineman into coverage? I say our ceiling is 12 wins and the floor is 7 wins.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:48 pm
Even with the injuries I can see an easy 10 wins this season. Keep it in mind and I use the keyword should here, but we should get better as the season goes getting back Wirf, Godwin, j Mac and some other guys for defensive.
September 5th, 2025 at 6:54 pm
I agree with the Sage and picked 11 wins.
That said, a lot depends on avoiding multiple injuries at a position where we can’t afford it.
I’m concerned about our left tackle and hoping like heck the backup to Wirfs can hold his own and stay healthy himself!
September 5th, 2025 at 6:59 pm
We lost 14 games year 1. Maybe we win 14 games year 50.
September 5th, 2025 at 7:11 pm
Does anyone know where to get the white creamsicle jersey with the 50 year patch on it? Everything online at Nike or Bucs shop is sold out and it doesn’t say if they’re gonna sell more. Live in Western US so local Bucs shop I can’t get to. Any help would be much appreciated!
September 5th, 2025 at 7:18 pm
Ten or 11 wins seems about right as the Bucs under Bowles always come out flat and underperform a few times a season under Bowles, last year both ATL games and Denver and they lose primetime games. This year, probably those throwback games and the MNF Houston game. BTW, I am surprised Joe did not write up an article about how Deion Sanders has the same philosophy as Coach Bowles concerning timeouts as Neon Deion left 2 in his pocket at the end of Buffalo’s 27-20 loss to GA Tech.
September 5th, 2025 at 7:51 pm
Anything less than the NFC championship game is a disappointment. This is the second best roster in the NFC! Lions are better but that’s only team with more talent top to bottom! Let’s get it Bucs!
September 5th, 2025 at 7:51 pm
I’m looking forwards to seeing the first ‘that’s it, ballgame. I know it’ proclamation on week 1 if we go down by a tuddy in the first qtr.
Reminder – week to week, don’t get too high, don’t get too low.
LFG. 11-6 for me!
September 5th, 2025 at 8:23 pm
Bowles is still in charge so it’ll be an 8 to 10 win season, and a quick exit from the playoffs.
He is still the HC due to the weak division. In any other division, he would have been fired years ago.
September 5th, 2025 at 8:40 pm
Joe: 12-5. Yes I am an optimist!
September 5th, 2025 at 8:53 pm
I’m still flabbergasted that so many seem to think that the Bucs winning 10 or 11 games is about Bowles. That a different HC would have us winning 12, 13, 14 games.
It’s much more about our players than about our coaches. Reality to me is that the Bucs have a decent starting lineup … IF everyone is healthy (and stays healthy). Our depth has improved somewhat, but we’ve got some noticeable deficiencies that weren’t addressed this off-season.
Joe mentioned ILB … yea verily, that’s a potential deficiency (just like it was last season). Myself & others keep mentioning lack of NT depth behind Vea (lose Vita for several games & I think a lot of eyes will be opened). Safety is a big ??? also IMO … our 2 starters missed a total of 12 games in 2024.
If we can stay healthy, we’ve got a chance to be a Top-10 defense. If we start losing folks, we’ll probably be more like middle-of-the-pack, like we were last year. Fingers crossed now.
September 5th, 2025 at 8:55 pm
Watching the Chiefs game. Chargers up after a quarter. Watched Cowboys Philly last night. Watch our team last year, every game. This Buccaneers team has a better receiver room, better running back room, and better OLine room than all 4 of them. Hands down. Probably as good a tight end room. If Baker can orchestrate this thing properly we might just average 35 points a game. We average 35 points a game we will win more than 10-11 games. And probably the Super Bowl.
September 5th, 2025 at 9:13 pm
This is a tough one..
I want to go with 11 wins or more. (That’s my homerism)
My gut on the other hand is not there. Far, far too many injuries to Key, KEY cogs that added up spells Trouble….. ALREADY! Key Game pieces…
I DO NOT get why Jason Licht isn’t “going for it” this year ? It seems as Clear as Crystal that if he “Believed” then he’d be loading up for Bear! He Must Certainly IS Not… We are ANOREXIC at KEY POSITIONS! THIN! Jason Licht IS NOT all in..
Brand spanking new Offensive Shot Caller… What could go wrong???
And just to stop the bleeding I’m only going to wrap it up with One More Gut Punch and leave the rest alone for now because what I’ve mentioned alone is Plenty to Sweet Over…
And that last point to consider is the Defensive side of the ball and the UTTERLY LOUSY secondary record that has been a MAIN STAY Year over Year! There Certainly isn’t ANY PROOF that it’ll be coached ANY BETTER and there IS NOT ANY GUARANTEES that this head coach will listen to Anybody! I SERIOUSLY DOUBT that Bowkes will be taking instructions or advice from some clock watcher… He CERTAINLY DID NOT TAKE ANY ADVICE FROM THE ONE THAT “WAS” HIRED TO PERFORM THOSE DUTIES LAST YEAR! So why would he take that Very Same advice this year????
He won’t…
So, with THAT said, 10/7 seems like a reasonable (with a good amount of luck) blessing under this current “regime”. Doesn’t it?
Licht’s not in. So why should I expect more than him?
I can Still dream though so I’m going with “D.a.m.n the Torpedoes!” Rossy Colored glasses on… 11/7 And I Hit the Lottery!
September 5th, 2025 at 9:20 pm
Kenton, I Feel what you’re saying AND I LIKE IT! One question though.
Can Baker do something with the defense? They could Really use the help AND A LEADER to guide them. If only….
But man You’re SPOT ON with the Offensive side of the ball!
September 5th, 2025 at 9:21 pm
Interesting….
According to Hard Rock Bet, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most bet team to win Super Bowl LX.
@ +2500
September 5th, 2025 at 9:22 pm
12 – 5
September 5th, 2025 at 9:26 pm
4 and 2 in division. 3 and 1 against afc east. 2 and 2 against nfc west. That’s leaves 1 win to get vs Texans, lions, or eagles. 10- 7.
September 5th, 2025 at 9:28 pm
O Defense Rules…. You seem to be Missing the Point.
It’s NOT the head coach that thousands are scratching their heads over. No. No it’s the “Defensive Coach” that seems to be the End All Be All at the core of ALL the anxiety..
Hope that helps
September 5th, 2025 at 9:32 pm
Yep, I was part of the 18% along with you, Joe. Anything better than that, and they truly do have a chance to compete for the NFC title. It’s the injury bug that has already reared its ugly head that has me dubious about any more wins than 10. In fact, I would not be surprised if they start out 0-2, 1-3. Anything better than that and I’ll be very happy.
September 5th, 2025 at 9:34 pm
O and DR, I missed another crucial point that you mentioned in your write up as curious.
There is No Longer a need to ponder the absence of quality. It’s actually quite simple.
Jason Licht IS NOT All In. If he were, he’d e performing his duties MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVELY concerning Supplying “Talent” in CRITICAL AREAS OF DESPERATE NEED. He’s not….
Hope that helps to clear that up for you.
September 5th, 2025 at 9:44 pm
Good lookin out yo! 😂
September 5th, 2025 at 9:50 pm
12 -14 wins. 6 Just in in the division. Then 6-5 or 8-3 against rest of the league. Mark it. Aim big boys. Maybe this is the perfect 5oth season… Destiny…. Baker and Evans CoSuperbowl mvps. Go BOWLES!
September 5th, 2025 at 9:51 pm
Obvious One, clearly things are not so obvious to you as you seem to think they are. The Bucs had $81.5 million in dead cap money in 2023, $62.5 million last year and $36.7 million this year.
Whittling that down for several years and still winning the division is remarkable. Free agents cost money that the Bucs just haven’t had, unless you propose they go even further in the hole and field a team of four superstars and the rest relative rookies to stay under the cap.
Next year, incidentally, the Bucs only have $234,000 in dead cap money (at this point) and none the following two years. That will free up the money they need to re-sign not only their own players, but pick up a high end free agent or two.
September 5th, 2025 at 9:52 pm
Playoff record is what matters.
September 5th, 2025 at 9:55 pm
Obvious One, the defense has someone to lead them. He’s won a Super Bowl as a Defensive coordinator. He’s won a Super Bowl as a defensive back. This team has poured resources into this offense for 5 years and until last year’s injury disaster has kept us competitive. Defense Rules explained we have 4 new starters on that side of the ball. The only way we score 30+ per game will be for our defense to improve. I’m thinking Inside Linebacker with Dennis and Bullard is better than advertised. We do need Vea to stand out and we’re a little weak with depth on our defensive line. Kancey is healthy and Tykee and Parrish and McCollum are playmakers. Reddick may be a pro bowler-he’s capable of alot. This team can’t win with anything other than team. Icing on the cake? Kicker and punter!!
September 5th, 2025 at 10:01 pm
Should have mentioned Winfield. The defense is gonna be much better this year. And we’ll prioritize it this next draft and get Walker healthy and this team is competitive for some years. We’ll see.
September 5th, 2025 at 10:14 pm
9-8 missing the playoffs.
Sorry.
September 5th, 2025 at 10:34 pm
A lot of pewter colored glasses on this article…
Should be at least an 8 win team because they play that many lesser teams..
But they play several teams that can score against good teams and the Bucs defense leaves receivers as open as college teams and the rest of the teams have coaches that most likely out coach/out smart Bowels….
IF the Bucs make it to the playoffs, like so many others predict, the Bucs most likely put out in the 1st round…. Not for lake of talent but HC/DC is their down fall…
September 5th, 2025 at 11:00 pm
A lot of pewter colored glasses on this article…
Should be at least an 8 win team because they play that many lesser teams..
But they play several teams that can score against good teams and the Bucs defense leaves receivers as open as college teams and the rest of the teams have coaches that most likely out coach The Bucs HC…….
IF the Bucs do make it to the playoffs, like so many others predict, the Bucs most likely get put out in the 1st round…. Not for lack of talent but HC/DC is their weakness..
September 5th, 2025 at 11:02 pm
Defense rules and Kenton for the win ✌🏼👍🏼
September 5th, 2025 at 11:09 pm
In my opinion the Buccaneers are 12-5 in the regular season.
Go Bucs Beat the Falcons !!
September 5th, 2025 at 11:21 pm
Should be at least an 8 win team…
But they play several teams that can score against good defenses and the Bucs defense leaves receivers as open as college teams..
the rest of the teams have better coaching…
IF the Bucs do make it to the playoffs, like so many others predict, the Bucs most likely get put out in the 1st round…. Not for lack of talent but HC/DC is subpar!
September 6th, 2025 at 12:26 am
11-6
Have $180 on the over for 9.5 wins.
$20 on The Bucs -1 at Atlanta
My deep shots
$70 on the Bucs to win the NFC Championship at 16 to 1
$70 on the Bucs to win the Super Bowl at 35 to 1
$30 on Baker to win MVP at 32 to 1
September 6th, 2025 at 12:43 am
From Chat GPT;
As of September 5, 2025, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have odds of +1200 to win the NFC Championship, according to BetMGM. This implies an approximate probability of 7.7% for the Buccaneers to secure the NFC title and advance to Super Bowl LX.
As of September 5, 2025, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have Super Bowl odds ranging from +2500 to +3000 across various sportsbooks. This translates to an implied probability of approximately 3.2% to 3.9% for the Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LX.   
As of September 5, 2025, Baker Mayfield’s odds to win the NFL MVP are approximately +2800 to +3500 across various sportsbooks. This translates to an implied probability of about 2.7% to 3.5% for Mayfield to secure the MVP award this season.
Despite these odds, the Buccaneers are among the most bet-on teams for the Super Bowl, according to Hard Rock Bet.  This suggests that bettors see value in the Buccaneers’ potential to exceed expectations.
Glad I got my NFC, Super Bowl tickets in early!
September 6th, 2025 at 3:46 am
8.5 is the correct number. 8 wins and 1 tie.
September 6th, 2025 at 7:15 am
Yeah, Joe…I’m still saying 11 wins. I’ll guess at playoff wins in December. LFG!
Goin’ chikn’ huntin’ Sunday afternoon with chicken wings and beer. To get in the mood in gonna play chikn’ huntin’ by Insane Clown Posse on my stereo. If anybody else decides to listen to it be advised: it’s NSFW….TO SAY THE LEAST.
September 6th, 2025 at 7:17 am
But it describes how I feel about the Fool Cans 100%
September 6th, 2025 at 7:18 am
Yard birds!
September 6th, 2025 at 7:37 am
Going game by game, I have us 12 dash 5….however we will always lose a game or 2 we shouldn’t….so 10 dash 7 it is.
September 6th, 2025 at 7:39 am
What Scotty said–Licht is NEVER gonna sacrifice the future for NOW. The team will simply get better and better via the draft and occasional free agent
September 6th, 2025 at 7:48 am
12-5
The offensive line looks stellar to me.
September 6th, 2025 at 10:14 am
14-3 (or better)
I posted my predictions over month ago here on Joe’s…. Go bucs
September 6th, 2025 at 10:15 am
10-7 cashes a win total bet for me 3years in a row!$$$ that should be attainable…whose with me on Ebuka getting over 3.5 tds this season!? He might have that before Godwin gets back! LETSGO!!!
September 6th, 2025 at 10:17 am
If Vegas has the over/under at 9.5 you guys should be rich by season’s end.
September 6th, 2025 at 11:05 am
The Bucs should have won 12 games last season, and would have done so had the defense pulled their weight in a couple of close losses. This season, I’m going to put some faith in Bowles’ judgement, Dennis’s health, and the quality play of two starting rookies and go with the 11-win crowd…at least until any or all three fail.
September 6th, 2025 at 1:08 pm
Wrong as usual, Joe. Two years ago, I looked at the schedule, looked at the team, and predicted a 10 or more win team. We won nine games during the regular season and an additional playoff game. The following year I said we would be better, we were. This year there’s no way this team wins less than 11 games during the regular season. Put a freaking stamp on it.
September 6th, 2025 at 1:34 pm
Scotty Mack, thanks for setting out the dead money issues the Bucs had and have.
September 6th, 2025 at 1:42 pm
10 wins is the floor. I predict a 12-5 record, reflecting an improved defense and better depth ( in case of a repeat of the rash of crucial injuries). Keep in mind that Bucs lost 2 close games to a so-so sub-.500 Falcons team last year, win those and the Bucs would have had 12 wins. It’s a very achievable goal.
September 6th, 2025 at 1:50 pm
Two years ago, the Bucs got a new OC, and they won one more game than the year before. Last year they got a new OC, and they won one more game. This year they got a new OC, and that says 11-6 is a good bet. Please, please, no objections about correlation not being causality.😉
September 6th, 2025 at 2:28 pm
I haven’t done my year official picks yet… Outside of two years ago, I’ve done pretty good, getting the win/loss exactly right for years until Bowles took charge.
Anywho, lets go game by game, as my final picks for the season…
WK1 @ATL – W 1-0
WK2 @TEX – L 1-1
WK3 NYJ – W 2-1
WK4 PHI – W 3-1
WK5 @SEA – L 3-2
WK6 SF – W 4-2
WK7 @DET – L 4-3
WK8 @NO – W 5-3
WK10 NE – W 6-3
WK11 @BUF – L 6-4
WK12 @LAR – L 6-5
WK13 ARI – W 7-5
WK14 NO – W 8-5
WK15 ATL – L 8-6
WK16 @CAR – L 8-7
WK17 @MIA – W 9-7
WK18 CAR – W 10-7
So 10-7, although some of these games I’m not to sure about. Like going to Miami in week 17, I have a win, but that’s more about thinking Miami will already be out of the playoff picture and playing scrubs, if not, then I’m not so sure that’s a W. Also that week 13 game vs the Cards, they are going to be a good team this year, and that’s a tough matchup, but I think the Bucs win it.
My locks…
WK15 vs ATL, Thursday night, Bucs ALWAYS lose this game
WK12 @LAR, Sunday night, Bucs ALWAYS lose this game
In fact, looking at the schedule, if it plays out that way the Bucs would be 0-4 in primetime games, and 10-3 otherwise.
Anyways, 10-7 should be good enough to get the Bucs into the playoffs.
September 6th, 2025 at 3:21 pm
If this is true…
> 71.5 percent of fans polled here last week believe the Bucs will have 11 or more wins
Ya’ll are more delusional than I thought. 11 or more? That’s happened how many times in 49 seasons? Todd has never won 11 regular season games. Neither has Baker.
8 or 9 is likely. 10 is a reasonable pick. 11 is homerism. Homer Simpson.
September 6th, 2025 at 3:32 pm
10 wins should be the floor with this team.
If they only hit the floor then there’s a problem with the roster, coach or both.
September 6th, 2025 at 4:28 pm
If the Defense doesn’t level up a notch or two over last season, they could be only 7-10 due to the other injuries.
The pass rush absolutely must be better and the secondary has to play better. Dean isn’t the answer and should lose his job to another player by midseason.
September 6th, 2025 at 5:31 pm
Hey, you guys you can pop on your Rosey Cored Glasses ALL YOU WANT. However…
In “Reality” the “Winning” came under Bruce Arians and HIS Head Coaching. And he WAS involved with All aspects of HIS team… Now THAT’S THE FACTS!
As Soon As Bowles was gifted the job the Entire Team took a MASSIVE nose dive! AND THAT INCLUDES while we still had Most of that Super Bowl team IN TACT.
You fellas are GREAT at making up excuses for Bowles but Your results LACK LUSTER! Did you think that it was only me and a few dozen that comment on his Poor excuse for running a team? No. Not so much. I noticed Joe isn’t exactly in Awe of Bowles either… No Big surprise there either.
You can GO AHEAD and throw in MANY PROFESSIONALS that call it for what it is.
And just incase you have Forgotten…. WE HAVEN’T SNIFFED A SUPER BOWL AT ALL since Arians heart condition. We have been crawling on our Bellies in EMBARRASSING FASHION (besides the offense). And ONLY THE OFFENSE CAN DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT!
Remind me? Who’s been in charge of the defense this whole time? And let me put it out there..How was it Under Arians? “DOMINATING WINNERS”!
Under Bowles…. CRAWLING ON OUR BELLIES advancing DUE TO OTHER TEAMS LOSSES AND “NOT” OUR DOMINANCE, EMBARRASSINGLY and in WHIMPERING FASHION, winning??? the WEAKEST DIVISION IN ALL OF FOOTBALL? BARELY….
You call that great? Well that’s YOUR standards. I AM interested in someone running this team that has a skill level of Bruce Arians rather than GOMER PYLE!
And I’m gonna talk about it ALL I PLEASE UNTIL BOWLES CAN SHOW ME HE CAN LEAD THIS TEAM TO GREATER HIGHS! We have been LUCKY! Not DOMINANT…
Our defensive ranking for two years running has been NOTHING LESS THAN ABYSMAL…. He hasn’t earned flowers.
You guys seem as desperate to have a mediocre coach as much as I and Many others are DESPERATE to have a Truly Accomplished Coach.
Are you guys asking us to settle for less than better than what we’ve had to settle for? Are you guys insinuating that we couldn’t possibly do better than a defensive coach that has a secondary IN THE “BOTTOM 3 IN ALL OF FOOTBALL”? 29TH RANK YEAR AFTER YEAR and that’s good enough for YOU???
Let me ask you this then. WHY THE HELL SHOULD ANY OF US LISTEN TO YOU GUYS? Incase you haven’t figured it out, You Guys have Very SLOPPY and Unimpressive Expectations for what a Head Coach, SHOULD BE.
If he delivers, I’ll personally pick flowers for him. If it’s more of the same from him, EXPECT MUD!