Mixed Bucs Messages From Oddsmakers
August 28th, 2025
So the over/under win total for the Bucs stands at 9 1/2 games.
However, as NFL analyst Connor Rogers of NBC Sports notes, a man who dabbles in gambling talk, the Bucs are currently favored by oddsmakers in 12 of their games.
Rogers thinks oddsmakers believe the “Falcons would be better” this season, so the Bucs’ win total was set lower. Joe’s not seeing the logic there. The Bucs lost twice to Atlanta last year. The Falcons can’t hurt the Bucs more than they did in 2024.
Rogers agrees with Joe in thinking the win total feels low. NBC analyst and former Bucs quarterback Chris Simms says the over/under 9 1/2 games for Tampa Bay “jumps out to me a little bit.”
Simms says his big question with the Bucs is at receiver because of major injuries to Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin. He’s high on Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka, but acknowledges one is a rookie and one is old.
Simms loves the Bucs’ trenches and Baker Mayfield, and thinks if the Bucs’ cornerbacks can hold up with Todd Bowles blitzing too much, they should be cruising past 9 1/2 wins.
August 28th, 2025 at 10:51 am
Get your money down now. Vegas has lowballed us every year Baker has been quarterback. I called it earlier that this year is going to be three in a row. Take it to the bank, guys.
August 28th, 2025 at 10:53 am
Well!! my thought is Mike and Baker aren’t getting any younger, if we don’ t win the NFC and represent we never will anytime soon?? Good thing about Upstate NY casinos all over the place… so yesterday I bet $500 for the Division and $500 to Straight out win the Super Bowl! I have that feeling!!! Go Bucs.
August 28th, 2025 at 10:53 am
Baker got hops!
August 28th, 2025 at 10:56 am
“One is old.”
That’s what Simms said? What an idiot. I never liked that guy anyhow.
August 28th, 2025 at 10:59 am
Big question should be Bucs defense. They were ranked way lower than the offense last season. Griz, or no Griz, Todd’s play calling is more of a worry for me. I just Reddick can cover receivers.
August 28th, 2025 at 10:59 am
Don’t see anything to be concerned about with the odds-makers putting the Bucs between 9-10 wins. That’s a lot better than last season or the season before.
Personally I think the Bucs can make it to 11-12 wins PROVIDING that injuries aren’t as pronounced as they were last season. We’ve got good starters for the most part, and our depth has improved, although it’s still weak in several position groups. All we can do now is let it play out.
August 28th, 2025 at 11:02 am
Joe, this season is tough. The question is how much does losing, Tristin Warfs, J Mac and Godwin hurt the team at the beginning of the season?. Plus now Otten has a new injury, does that keep him out a game or two. Suddenly all these injuries and the season has not started yet makes you wonder. I can see the team being affected more than they believe and losing the first few games of the season. At this point it possible that the could start the season 0-2. The first game in ATL, if you think this won’t be a dog fight , your mistaken and the game is on the road. Houston has a solid defense and is another game on the road. It sure sounds possible that J Mac and Godwin don’t return till the mid point meaning quality play. Remember the season has not started yet and we don’t know who else is going to be injured. Certainly possible injuries derail the whole season. Let’s hope not!!. This season may be the opposite , the team starts in the hole and picks up steam as the season goes.
I am hoping I am wrong, however, I see the above as a definite possibility!!!
August 28th, 2025 at 11:02 am
This is an at least 10 wins team even if that Putrid Pass Defense sticks around!
August 28th, 2025 at 11:07 am
Todd blew both Atlanta games, the Niners game, the Chiefs game, and the Washington playoff game to a rookie, all by himself. For a coach to lose 5 of 5 games that were in his lap, is an atrocity. How many winnable games will Todd blow in 2025? That’s where your high variance on the Bucs comes from.
August 28th, 2025 at 11:15 am
Joe, I couldn’t comment on your radio show post. It said tomorrow. I am working from home and thought I missed a day, lol. Tomorrow is Friday. It’s okay, happens to the best of us.
August 28th, 2025 at 11:21 am
I actually think this is a perfect o/u for us. When schedule came out I said best case scenario 10 wins. With the injurines we’re dealing with now I can easily see 9
August 28th, 2025 at 11:22 am
9.5 seems about right. Bucs should be the better team in 12 or 13 games but Bowles will piss away a few games like he does every year with poor game management and stupid decisions, like he does every year.
August 28th, 2025 at 11:23 am
Right now I’d be concerned about where we’ll be after Sept into October.
Very real chance they start out 1-3 with the big names out on offense and a defense that we have no idea how good or bad they’ll be yet. I wouldn’t be betting the farm on the over quite yet.
August 28th, 2025 at 11:26 am
Take the over.
August 28th, 2025 at 11:26 am
Wise guys who set the win totals probably do factor the lines into consideration, but they also consider factors such as the team’s ability to actually win games they are favored in. That said, the wise guys must think that something is going to make the Bucs lose some of these games which the Bucs should be favored in such as Todd Bowles, the bad primetime record, injuries, etc. to set the line at 9.5……
August 28th, 2025 at 11:31 am
Captain Oveur Over
August 28th, 2025 at 11:38 am
Todd Bowles is an average coach in 3 seasons he averages 9 wins a year, these are facts
The pass defense has been bottom 10 the last few years, which is disturbing under a defensive coach who is a former DB in the league
Injuries to Wirfs, Godwin, McMillan combined with a new OC (again) means the offense might not be as good
While 10 wins was fun last year, this team has to show improvement on the defensive side of the ball to win the knowledable fans over
August 28th, 2025 at 11:54 am
Is the Over/Under counting the giveaway games the Bucs are usually a part of? Every year there seems to be games the Bucs should have won, but somehow fall short. Just last season- Dallas, Atlanta (twice), Denver, San Francisco, Kansas City?
August 28th, 2025 at 11:58 am
10 wins is the floor for this 2025 Bucs team.
11 or 12 wins is the most likely with 14 being the ceiling.
Pretty close to a lock on the over… but then there’s Murphy’s law…
August 28th, 2025 at 12:07 pm
Bowles blitzes alot because defensive line is lacking in sacks, not because he’s blitz happy like the media makes him out to be.
Media is too lazy to learn the defensive line is failing and leaving the secondary out to dry.
Hopefully Redick has another year of 10 plus sacks and helps YaYa gets over 10 plus sacks. Add in Veta and Kancey in the middle to get both 10 sacks each, and the Bucs become a serious Super contender.
August 28th, 2025 at 12:24 pm
We only get 10 wins if the division is total thrash again. If 1 team emerges from the scrap heap, that number is much lower and we all get to finally see The ReTodd as he really is, over rated and hopefully out of time.
August 28th, 2025 at 12:31 pm
Chris Godwin was all world and one of my favorites, but let’s not forget that his foot was on backwards.
Odds are he won’t be close to the same
Different team without Chris. Shouldn’t have been in that game, brutal
Bridgewater hung JMac out to dry. Dudes in a neck brace- brutal
Todd Bowles is what he is.
August 28th, 2025 at 12:43 pm
Not sure it was Teddys fault ,,, it’s just one of those things that happened ,,, JMac is to his own detriment a tremendous leaper ,,,!He will be back with fresh legs
August 28th, 2025 at 1:41 pm
Todd needs to get more pressure with 4 rushers. If he is constantly blitzing , he is going to get the secondary killed like last year. Think the most important factor is how the defense performs on third downs. If they get a lot better, than 12 wins is obtainable.
August 28th, 2025 at 1:57 pm
Parsons!
August 28th, 2025 at 3:06 pm
I’m sticking with 11 wins.
No future killing Parsons trade though.
We did sign a guy from Miami who was a 5th round draft pick last year. Did well in college, but hasnt done anything as a pro yet. Similar in build to that Walker kid.
August 28th, 2025 at 3:30 pm
That’s just more fuel for the fire. Win one game at a time! It all starts in Atlanta!! Rise Up!!
August 28th, 2025 at 4:25 pm
“Simms says his big question with the Bucs is at receiver because of major injuries to Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin. He’s high on Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka, but acknowledges one is a rookie and one is old.”
I remember winning with only one good WR.
August 28th, 2025 at 5:48 pm
we won with only one good WR when we had the one of the best defenses of all time. we don’t now- and honestly our other receivers played pretty well also back then- they were hardly scrubs
August 28th, 2025 at 8:04 pm
I’ve won the over last two seasons, doing it again as I feel 10-7 feels right and is a winner…my personal bet of the year, Ebuka over 3.5 tds!! Could have that by the time Godwin gets back! $$$