Baker Mayfield In Big Packages
August 31st, 2025
“I’m OK with that, ‘Grizz.'”
This is very interesting to Joe on a couple of levels.
Per the intel from Steve Patton of @PattonAnalytics, the more the Bucs last year used “big” personnel, the better Baker Mayfield played.
“Big” personnel, as Patton defined it, is either 12, 13 or 21 personnel. The first number refers to how many running backs are used. The second number refers to how many tight ends are used. For example:
10 Personnel = 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WRs
11 Personnel = 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs
12 Personnel = 1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs
13 Personnel = 1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR
21 Personnel = 2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs
22 Personnel = 2 RBs, 2 TEs, 1 WR
As you can see in the graphic below, only Saint Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were better in “big” personnel groupings.
Why does this interest Joe? Because Joe has a hunch the Bucs will run more big personnel groups in the first few weeks of the season because All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs is on the shelf recovering from knee surgery.
On Wednesday, Wirfs told the Sage of Tampa Bay sports, Ira Kaufman, that his goal is to get on the field for Week 4 against the Super Bowl-champion Eagles but his hope is the home opener against the Jets. Wirfs did admit the Jets game may be wishful thinking.
Until then, backup tackle Charlie Heck will step in for Wirfs. So Joe expects the Bucs to use more max-protect, likely meaning more big personnel to make up for Wirfs’ absence and cover for Heck.
Fortunately, Mayfield shines in that grouping.
Lamar is an actual cheat code https://t.co/iws2vUUfmS pic.twitter.com/NE5tNwEpNk
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) August 23, 2025
August 31st, 2025 at 9:52 am
Just knowing that we have a Stud Franchise QB is comforting that our Team is in Good Hands. We have a Top 10 potent Offense. It’s that Putrid Pass Defense that will dictate where this team goes this year. LFG!!
August 31st, 2025 at 10:07 am
Truth be Told tells the truth. Putrid is a compliment for that horrifying excuse for a “pass defense.”
August 31st, 2025 at 10:33 am
Since we have a coach that is scared to take deep shots. I would like to see more 2 back sets myself. We have 2 dynamic Rbs out of the backfield. Use them more.
August 31st, 2025 at 10:56 am
Oh, I read the title to fast. Got excited for a second.
August 31st, 2025 at 10:56 am
The Ravens and the Bills both finished behind the Buccaneers in pass defense. That stat is misleading. DVOA had the Buccaneers in the top half. Our rush defense was elite.
August 31st, 2025 at 11:05 am
I liked the 2 back set last year because we have three backs that can be effective, and it leaves the defense guessing.
With lesser talented RBs I don’t think it would work nearly as well in that effect.
August 31st, 2025 at 11:06 am
Chart also reveals the Bucs may have underutilized their “big” packages. Hard to imagine that offense left some chicken on the bone.
August 31st, 2025 at 12:23 pm
Buddha, I would not call our Run D elite. We came in at 9th giving up 4.3 y/a. The Bucs were 4th in surrendering only 1,672 rushing yards for the season, and #5 in allowing 94 1st downs from rushing. Not bad, but misleading IMO.
When your D is so piss poor at defending the pass, why should an opponent struggle to rush the ball? The Bucs gift wrapped 4,147 total passing yards (#29), 212 1st downs from passing (#28), a Qbr of 97.3 (#26), and 27 TDs from passing (#20). Passing TDs allowed is surprising that it is not higher considering how bad the pass D was (with all the injuries – I don’t put that on Todd).
The more surprising thing is the Bucs were as high tied for #14 in net yards per pass play at 6.1 yard avg. That IMO is pretty damn good to have such a poor pass D (bottom 5) and middle of the pack yards per pass. That shows how we were such a “bend but don’t break” D. With the injuries, I think Todd had to play that style of soft D – like we say on here – 10 yards off the WR. But when the opponent got to the Red Zone, he tightened it up.
I hated watching the ’10 yards off the ball’ D as much as anyone, but give the man some credit. With all the injuries, the Bucs did ok, not great, but ok.
August 31st, 2025 at 12:31 pm
Biggest problem with our defense last season was getting off the field on third down. This was a result of faking blitz, than dropping our OLBs into zone coverage. QBs had to much time to find receivers in the soft zone. Teams have figured out Todd’s dendencies. The only team he’s fooling is his own. I really believe Todd should name either Caldwell, or Foote as full time DC, and let them call the defense on Sundays.
August 31st, 2025 at 1:37 pm
I got confused Senor Harry.
It seemed that you choose to say 4th best in yards against the run was not elite — deciding to point out that in yards per carry we were actually 9th best.
Then when calling our pass defense piss poor — essentially ignored the fact that we were 14th in net yards per pass play.
If you are equating the net yards in rushing as the key stat — then be consistent and equate the net yards allowed in passing as the key stat.
So, 9th in rushing average and 14th in passing average. Neither elite but neither piss poor.
August 31st, 2025 at 1:46 pm
Well, 21 is the opposite of a big package, but because the Bucs RBs are so versatile as runners, pass catchers and blockers, I imagine that slowed defenses down, not really knowing which back was going to do what.
August 31st, 2025 at 1:59 pm
Need to run bigs more often. I’d like to see the graph without the 21.
Grizz and Carbs need Plan A against ATL to assume Heck needs help. Put a TE beside Heck, have a back chip the edge, screen that side, run a flair to the RB on that side, and definitely run at that edge to pound him into the ground. LFG!
August 31st, 2025 at 2:02 pm
In response to the defense problems. The biggest problem with the defense last year was injuries plain and simple. There were not enough quality back ups to play and the ones that did got hurt too. Bowles knew that and was trying everything he could to manufacture pressure and confusion last year. This year we are deeper with better players, now if that damn injury bug will leave us alone we should be ok. It’s not the scheme’s fault if you don’t have the players to execute it properly.
August 31st, 2025 at 2:12 pm
Not sure what it’s called but I like when they send the TE in motion and snap the ball just as the TE gets halfway down the OL and ends up being the lead blocker up the middle for the RB.
August 31st, 2025 at 2:28 pm
Don’t forget Lamar has both Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely at TE. They are both ultra studs and probably the best receivers on his team. Having them both on the field makes the Ravens unpredictable because it also looks like run formations. So it’s not just Lamar but his Tight Ends that make big formations so useful.
With the Bucs, fear of counter-style runs makes it easier to pass out of these formations.
August 31st, 2025 at 3:02 pm
which todd defense shows up? the one that shut down mahomes in the sb? or the one that blitzed stafford while cooper kupp was running free?
August 31st, 2025 at 6:12 pm
Best way to help Heck is to run the damn ball.
Don’t need an extra TE to do what an RB is more than capable of, but you also can’t do that on every single play without it becoming a tell. Also, it’s not like Baker has been proficient throwing to anybody outside of Mike, Chris, &. Cade. I’d include Chaad & Bucky, but their recieving totals are bogged down by a ton of negative yardage as recieving targets because they catch the bulk of their “passes” behind the LOS.
I’m all for it situationally, but I don’t think Heck bad to the point he’s some glaring liability and how much help is he going to need if the QBs first/only read is designed to be show early in the development of the play?
Like, we’ve got that empty set Bucky caught the TD from Bridewater from against the Steelers. An easy tweak there would me to have Bucky/Chaad line up in the flank and just motion them back to the backfield. While the D is adjusting their coverage, snap the ball. Now you can run draws, play action, & screens off that one tweak.
Simple, yet satisfying. No need to put a hat on a hat on another hat that’s on your head.
August 31st, 2025 at 7:24 pm
I saw where Bake has a real cute lil tattoo on the outer side of his left thigh. So, now I see what is behind a lot of the ‘fascination’ on here. I mean, it is VERY ‘sexy’ I must admit LoL. To each their own haha. I sure hope he can come through with a HUGE season. It’s all on HIS shoulders. This team will only go as far as he can take them. If he’s not on point and under control, then I don’t think this Bucs team stands a chance.
August 31st, 2025 at 9:08 pm
“On Wednesday, Wirfs told the Sage of Tampa Bay sports, Ira Kaufman, that his goal is to get on the field for Week 4 against the Super Bowl-champion Eagles ”
——–
I keep secretly hoping it’s all a ruse, and Wirfs will be out there vs Atlanta.
I know it’s not going to happen, but I keep hoping it will.
August 31st, 2025 at 11:04 pm
Blaming injuries is what losers do.
August 31st, 2025 at 11:28 pm
A lot of that is having a good running game – when defenses see that personnel and you’re running the ball well, that opens things up for the QB.
September 1st, 2025 at 5:45 am
No problem at all with 11, 12 and 21 personnel. 13 or 22? Maybe if Tez makes it impossible to keep him off the field? Good stuff Joe! I hope that Heck proves he can handle it without help though. Atlanta!
Go Bucs!
September 1st, 2025 at 8:12 am
I believe bucs were 28th in the league in 3rd down stops, which leads to worse field position and negative time of possession. that was amplified in the playoff loss
September 1st, 2025 at 8:24 am
American football linemen are unnaturally large. Everything else such as the heart and the knees break down. Rugby guys run a lit so they are more normal size.
September 1st, 2025 at 10:17 am
Coltol. Football Database gives a percentage of 3rd down stops.
Bucs were at 14th best. Allowing 3rd down conversions at 38.1 percent of the attempts.
The range for all teams were between 32.4 percent (Detroit) and 50.2 percent (Carolina).