Will Todd Bowles Be More Conservative On Fourth Down?
July 20th, 2025
A lot of Bucs fans assume Todd Bowles hiring a clock management/in-game-analytics guru means the Bucs will go for it more often on fourth down, and punt and kick less often.
That could be true. But suppose the Bucs defense is improved? That might make it harder for Bowles to be aggressive. And it could lead to his data guy wanting to take fewer chances with a strong defense. Of course, one could argue the opposite.
What’s clear is the Bucs, per FOX Sports data, went for it 14 times last season on fourth down. That ranked second-to-last in the NFL. Only the Vikings, a 14-win team, went for it less frequently.
Of the 10 clubs that went for the conversion least often on fourth down, only two missed the playoffs (Arizona and San Francisco). So being aggressive isn’t necessarily a winning formula.
Still, Bucs fans largely want more aggressive decision-making on the heels of a painful end to the 2024 season.
Six months ago the Bucs trailed 20-17 with 4:41 remaining at the Washington 14 yard line in the playoffs.
It was 4th-and-3. The Bucs had just failed on a quarterback sneak on second down, and Bucky Irving lost two yards on 3rd-and-1 courtesy of a Graham Barton screwup.
So Todd Bowles brought out the field goal unit, which tied the game at 20.
The Bucs never got the ball back.
July 20th, 2025 at 2:58 pm
The Bucs had 2nd and 1, after a 9 yard run from Bucky on first down. On 2nd and 1, why Coen even call a QB sneak, Washington was waiting on it. Why not attack Washington defense with a pass? I can’t blame Coach Bowles for kicking the Field Goal. They had two downs to get a yard, instead they went backwards. The exact same thing happened in the first Falcons game, but they punted then instead of kicking a FG. I think Josh Grizzard will be an upgrade from Liam Coen.
Coen made a lot of conservative calls with the game on the line
July 20th, 2025 at 3:04 pm
I’ve certainly kicked and screamed about our head coach not going for it on 4th and short, among many other things.
This is some interesting intel/stats, and some serious food for thought.
I’d be interested in seeing similar stats from previous years, which may suggest a correlation, or just a happenstance last year.
Good article, Joe. Thanks.
July 20th, 2025 at 3:15 pm
If they can’t make a single yard in two downs
Why would l have confidence in them making 3 yards in 1 play?
July 20th, 2025 at 3:45 pm
I’m not a fan of conservative defensive football. I get that Todd has been conservative.
But WHEN IT REALLY COUNTED…as in winning a 4th straight Division title Todd had a real pair of stones.
Final game of the year, MUST WIN against the Saints. Back and forth into the 4th Q. Baker threw an interception, which led to a Blake Grupe field goal. New Orleans took a 19–13 lead into the fourth quarter. With 10:49 left in regulation, facing a 4th and 8 at the New Orleans 42-yard line, Mayfield found Jalen McMillan deep downfield for a 33-yard gain. The rest is history!
4th and 8 with OVER TEN MINUTES TO GO. Todd had 3 options. Punt and play it really safe! Attempt a 50+ yard FG to get within a FG with TEN minutes to go.
OR go for the first down with EIGHT yards to go.
I almost crapped myself when he went for the first down with over ten minutes left!!!
I understand the griping but based on LAST season Todd showed how far he’s progressed. OR is it that he finally has confidence in his Offense?
July 20th, 2025 at 3:54 pm
Coen didn’t call a good game. It can happen.
This year, Bowles was forced to hire Zach Beistline as “Director of Football Research” to help with clock management, timeouts, etc. The Bucs have kept Zach incognito, so who knows if he’s any good or if Bowles will actually take his advice. Hopefully Bowles bought into the hire and picked Zach, as Bowles has done well hiring OC’s so far…
July 20th, 2025 at 3:59 pm
I’d like to see us be more aggressive from time to time. But be smart about it…like when your defense hasn’t made the other team punt all game – maybe you go for it. Maybe try to win the game with offense instead of giving the ball to elite QBs with multiple 4th quarter come from behind wins expecting your defense to win it.
I think we all know he’s still going to play it safe and try to win on defense…hopefully it works out for us this year.
Go Bucs!!
July 20th, 2025 at 5:04 pm
Wonder if this data guy would have said to go for 2 in the 4th against KC?
July 20th, 2025 at 5:21 pm
Joe … ‘What’s clear is the Bucs, per FOX Sports data, went for it 14 times last season on fourth down. That ranked second-to-last in the NFL.’
Yes Bucs only went for it 14 times on 4th down last season, but they made it 9 times (64.29%). We ranked #8 in terms of success rate. Ranked #2 in 2023 with Baker Mayfield at QB (66.67% … successful on 12 of 18 attempts). But only ranked #12 in 2022 with Tom Brady at QB (55.6%) … successful on only 15 of 27.
So Todd Bowles was much more aggressive on 4th down in 2022 than he was in 2023 or 2024. I wouldn’t call him a gunslinger, but he’s obviously not afraid to go for it (27 attempts in 17 games is probably a higher than average amount). I think maybe it’d be worth looking at EACH 4th down situation (distance to go, score at the time, etc) to see if the decision was optimum. We’ve obviously had fairly good success these past 2 years when we did go for it.
July 20th, 2025 at 5:40 pm
Obvious question deserves an obvious answer.
Todd is never going to change. He will cost us 3 games minimum with his conservative coaching style and sheer idiocy.
8-9 on the way. CBs still 15 yards off the ball. DL still dropping into coverage like it’s 1999. Making 3rd string QBs look like HOFers
July 20th, 2025 at 5:54 pm
Any day now, we will have AI play calling and competing AI analyses critiquing the AI play calling.
July 20th, 2025 at 8:01 pm
Every single coach in the league would have called for the field goal given those circumstances vs the foreskins.
Bowles WILL go for it on 4th down more often this year though I believe….
When you have a top offense and a top running game – its foolish not to roll the dice a bit more often on 4th and short…. ESPECIALLY if your defense is also playing well.
July 20th, 2025 at 9:43 pm
Everyone’s blaming Coen for that QB sneak but, i think that was a audible by Mayfield. Bowles should’ve realized that his defense wasn’t getting off the field and go for it, hopefully this upcoming season he will be more aggressive.
July 20th, 2025 at 9:47 pm
After seeing the Bucs lose multiple games during the regular season last season by not going for the lead and giving the ball back to the other team…the decision to not go for it on 4th was a bad call.
The defense was on its heels and had given up long drives all night. Plus there’s not a lot of time left so you’re counting on the defense to get a 3 and out, 6 and out which hasn’t happened all night.
You’re in your own red zone, if you don’t convert, at least you can help the defense out by backing WAS up and giving them a longer field. Instead of tying the game and kicking it off giving them a shorter field and more space to operate.
Bad call on Bowles part and shows that no matter what he’ll trust the defense over the offense with the season on the line.
If the defense is better this season maybe that means he’ll go for it more. Who knows. He hired a time management guy but its still Bowles decision to listen to him or not.
We’ll see what happens.
July 20th, 2025 at 11:58 pm
We can be sure, whatever the wrong move is, Todd will make it.
July 21st, 2025 at 12:04 am
I get the stats angle but I would love it if we only kicked the football on kickoffs and PATs.
LOL
Bowles is “defensive minded” coach and has definitely been one to depend on his defense to a fault. We have lost some games over that in my opinion. Fourth down fails have been known to get HCs fired though. As Joe has pointed out in the past. Taking the ball out of Brady’s hands late in a game is not the smart play. We have a gamer in Baker so I feel much the same way now.
Clock management is a different thing and Bowles and his clock dude need to get on the same page. Having faith that we can get a first down instead of having faith we can get a stop? I will take the former until our defense can show improvement.
Go Bucs!