The Directionally Challenged Bucs?
July 23rd, 2025
Interesting tell on Bucs offense.
This is why Joe likes reading tidbits on the Bucs from guys like NFL humorist/data analyst Mike Tanier. Sometimes, having someone else not from New Port Richey or Bartow look at the Bucs brings a fresh perspective.
Now before Joe gets rolling here, let Joe establish something: Joe thinks former Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen, now running the show in Jacksonville, is the second-best offensive coordinator this franchise has ever had.
Second only to former Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians.
So while on face value, reading the following data may make someone holler, “What’s wrong with you, Coen?” Please keep in mind the Bucs offense was very, very good last year.
On face value, it appears that the Bucs’ offense last season was directionally challenged, as Tanier typed in Aaron Schatz’s FTN Football Almanac 2025.
Tampa Bay threw to the right side more often than the left side despite ranking much better in DVOA on the left side (second) compared to the right side (19th).
So the Bucs were the second-best team in the league throwing to the left side but Coen decided it was better to go right? Joe has a theory for that. It’s hard in the NFL to hide a tendency or a strength. The eyes in the sky (All-22 and NextGen Stats — GPS data from players and the football) don’t lie.
Joe will guess defenses knew the Bucs threw very well to the left and adjusted, flooding that side of the field. Maybe a tiny bit so.
As a result, Baker Mayfield read the coverages correctly and went to the right side.
What Joe would like to know is, why did the Bucs play so well throwing left and not right? Was it blocking schemes? Did Luke Goedeke being out four games at right tackle throw the data off?
Did missing Chris Godwin for much of the season tilt the scales to the left? Is Mayfield more comfortable throwing right?
There’s actually a lot to unpack. Still, at the end of the day, the Bucs were scoring points no matter what side of the field Mayfield targeted. And that’s the name of the game.
July 23rd, 2025 at 12:26 am
Could not agree more Joe on your last paragraph. We all saw a high-powered offense last year that could Run the ball and Pass well and expect quality play again this year out of that unit again. Sometimes stats can be used to try to make a point of something that is not an issue. If the Bucs had become predictable-then why did their Offense look so good basically the whole year? Go Bucs!!
July 23rd, 2025 at 1:05 am
Trends are trends until they’re not.
July 23rd, 2025 at 1:09 am
I thought this was an observation about the head coach.
July 23rd, 2025 at 1:24 am
I think this ‘throw left gets better results but we throw right more anyway’ involves Evans…..
Evans lines up on the right side mostly….
Evans is oftentimes double teamed by defenders…. typically leaving the outside WR on the left in single coverage.
So when Baker throws left – he connects more often and gets bigger plays because that WR only has 1 defender to beat.
But Mayfield threw right more often last year – because, well – because he’s got future 1st ballot HOFer Mike Evans over there – and especially after Godwin went down – Evans was Bakers best bet for a catch and 1st down the 2nd half of the season… even vs tighter coverage – Evans is usually money when you put the ball where he can get both hands on it.
I have said for years that there’s no such thing as a 50/50 ball when Mike Evans is the target. Its more like 80/20 – especially in the end zone. Just throw it up there a bit on the high side and – even against tight coverage -Evans will high point and/or fight for that ball and usually win.
July 23rd, 2025 at 6:46 am
Seems like most of those three receiver screens were set up on the left side of the formation – a play that was usually quite successful.
That, or the receivers on the left were single covered with Mike being doubled on the right but were unable to get open as often. When they did, it was a big play.
July 23rd, 2025 at 7:34 am
Easier for a right handed QB to THROW right…
July 23rd, 2025 at 8:40 am
It is highly unlikely that both sides would be even for attempts or success percentage. Meaningless stat.
July 23rd, 2025 at 9:30 am
I think it more has top do with the QB. He is the one throwing it after all.
Also, whenever I think of Mike making one of his great crazy catches, I my mind I always see him on the left sideline.
July 23rd, 2025 at 9:51 am
I feel like this whole idea is just very similar to why a screen play might work.
You show of a habit of plays that are successful — “Throwing to right side” or “Standard blocking for pass play”.
Then you note how the defense starts to overplay that play and you end up exploiting the defense with either the screen or in this case, the more directional throwing to the left side.
Dirk Koetter was not a great OC for us, but he had a habit of not using the tight end much in the pass game, but then all of a sudden the tight end would leak out to the left side of the field for some of our biggest plays in games. Caught other team by surprise.
July 23rd, 2025 at 11:24 am
Joe, your subtlety to give DefenseRules a reason to research more data is not lost on us. DON”T DO IT DR, don’t fall for it.
July 23rd, 2025 at 1:29 pm
coen is third. i cant believe you guys rated him higher than joe gibbs during the mckay years. i hear all of your stats, but the rules were way different then
July 23rd, 2025 at 2:32 pm
gonna break it all down yes to all of the above
July 23rd, 2025 at 7:19 pm
Bosch Says:
Meaningless stat.
^^^^^^
That.