Big season coming?

Is this a layup bet on the Bucs’ best running back or a trap? This seems like a no-brainer wager but recent history is flashing a big ol’ yellow light.

Right about now, with less than a month until training camps open up, folks are looking to get ahead of the crowd and start mapping out their wagering battleplans for the season. Joe is no different.

While browsing (ahem) through Instagram last night, Joe came across a video from the PFF tribe. There, a narrator boldly stated that betting the over on Bucky Irving’s season-rushing total is about as much of a slam dunk bet in June as one will ever find.

Per the PFF tribe, the over/under of rushing yards for Bucky this fall is 1025.5. Last year as a rookie, Bucky had 1,112 rushing yards and he’s expected to get more touches this fall.

The PFF tribe strongly urged viewers to “smash” the over. The only thing in Bucky’s way, the narrator claimed, is an “inefficient veteran” at running back.

On face value, Joe agrees. This seems like a lead pipe lock bet. On face value, that is.

But then, Joe remembered typing a story about rookie running backs this decade entering their second season. Six rookie running backs this decade ran for over 1,000 yards. All but one (Jonathan Taylor) regressed in run production in their second season.

Still, Joe thinks taking Bucky and the over in rushing yards is a wise play. Joe isn’t sure any of the running backs who saw a dip in production in their second seasons this decade had an offensive line to run behind like Bucky does with the Bucs.

 

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