Warning Of Regression
June 23rd, 2025
Regression doesn’t mean bad.
Not everyone is on the Baker Mayfield bandwagon.
Mayfield has been a dynamite find by Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht and Todd Bowles. The last two seasons, Mayfield has had career years. Good stuff.
But wait, says Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis. It’s time for a regression.
Sure, Joe can see that. The thing is, what is regression? If Mayfield’s completion percentage goes down and he only hits 70 percent of his pass attempts, that’s regression. That’s also still damn good.
If Mayfield’s touchdown total drops from 41 to 39, that’s regression. It’s also damn good.
Just because Mayfield is likely to regress doesn’t mean he will suck or the Bucs will lose 11 games. Not too many quarterbacks have three straight career years. That doesn’t mean they should be thrown off the team.
So while Joe agrees the odds are pretty good Mayfield takes a half-step back, that doesn’t mean the Bucs are all of a sudden turning to Kyle Trask.
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:15 am
Coen was a hinderance to the passing attack, not the reason for its success. Coens mismanagement of early downs and reliance on BM, CO, CG, and ME to save the offense was a feature of his offense last year.
Grizzard should be an upgrade.
Mayfield tied the league lead in dropped passes per NextGenStats.
His true completion percentage was closer to 80%.
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:19 am
The old Zen saying, “You see where you place your attention.”. If you wish to see negative possibilities they’re certainly available, as are very positive possibilities.
It’s that time of the year when people are “looking” for stories. IE sometimes they need to get really creative.
Will Baker make mistakes this year? Absolutely! Will he force some passes that are converted to ints? Try too hard to extend a play and have a game changing turnover. Will he complete a game winning TD in the final minute of play.
All of these things are possible and even probable. He’s going to do it all. If he does it at his historical levels of performance in both college and the NFL the Bucs will be fine. Again. Was Brad Johnson considered the top QB when he won the SB? Brad was a great athlete and a true competitor. Baker possesses many of those same quailities. Give him the right team and he can win.
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:21 am
If Godwin back and the run game improves he could have his best year…
I’m still on record saying we should trade for elite te that carves up defenses. Otton in support role sounds better to me…
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:21 am
Be interested to see what Coen can do with Fabio
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:25 am
I will never watch the all 22. I will continue to comment. My takes will be HOT!
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:31 am
Regression. Coaching it is a current Bucs strength.
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:34 am
Watch More All22 Before Commenting … ‘His true completion percentage was closer to 80%.’
I remember looking at Baker’s deep throwing accuracy about a month or 2 ago, and he was actually very good. Very close to 50% accuracy on his deep throws. As everyone knows, Baker threw for his career high of 71.4% last year overall, meaning that his short stuff averaged slightly over 75% completion rate. That’s incredible IMO.
Can he duplicate that, or even improve on it, in 2025? At this point, none of us can even begin to know. Will Grizz constantly put him in positions where a high completion rate is very likely due to Baker’s skill, plays’ design and receivers’ talent? Will Baker stay healthy all season long? Will our OLine hold up and protect him even better than they did last year?
There’s probably 100 more questions that we can’t possibly know the answer to at this point. But there’s one thing I do feel vey confident about: we’ll get Baker’s best on every single play. And with that mentality, the chance of him (and us) being successful is very good.
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:36 am
I am staying positive. Baker is not at his peak yet. With the incoming possibilities of a fine-tuned roster, Baker will be even better! Rich Hribar will have to retract his regression analysis soon enough.
June 23rd, 2025 at 8:53 am
Mayfield plays an exciting but reckless style of football,and he’s getting older, the NFC South was the weakest conference in the league the last two years , they are improving as are most of the other teams in the league , their improvements are aimed at overtaking and replacing the top teams in their conferences , more effort will be required to stay on top, a Reckless style of play , leading to more possibilities of injury, already leading the entire NFL in fumbles and interceptions, age , and improved , targeted competition will all be obstacles that most be overcome to prevent regression, not impossible but more difficult, We will see.
June 23rd, 2025 at 9:01 am
“Sharp” analysis said the same thing last year lol it’s just narrative driven and people who won’t let go of bakers past with the browns.
June 23rd, 2025 at 9:04 am
Regression could also mean going from throwing 10 INTs, to throwing 16 INTs, to throwing 17 INTs.
So many ways to look at regression. My question is what more can we ask of Mayfield? Better efficiency on downfield passes? Less tipped balls? Not holding the football?
Even hearing that Grizz wants to emphasize downfield passing and improving their, I know it worked for us in spots, but the 70% completion pct was on account of our screen game being a catalyst for our passing attack. B
Bucky & Rachaad were our 3rd and 5th best receivers in terms of receptions, with Godwin being 4th after only playing 7 games. We’ll see how this offense gets rolled out and rolling.
June 23rd, 2025 at 10:09 am
😂 😂 😂 😂
June 23rd, 2025 at 10:10 am
Eventually if the pundits and “experts” keep predicting a regression they will be right, but as long as Evans, Godwin, and Bucky are healthy and effective Baker will Bake.
Baker will never be Josh Allen, Mahomes or a QB that makes others better, but give him weapons and a good play caller and he will be top 10-15 consistently. After having Brady and the clown show of Jameis, Baker is what this franchise needs
June 23rd, 2025 at 10:18 am
This is a website where people are allowed to say dumb things like: ” Baker will never be Josh Allen, Mahomes or a QB that makes others better….” You mean people like Cade Otton, Payne Durham, McMillan…….?
Mayfield makes everyone better because he is a great teammate where the guys love playing with him. Mayfield’s career right now mirrors HOF to be, Drew Brees. Before it is over Mayfield will have eclipsed everything Brees accomplished.
June 23rd, 2025 at 10:48 am
stpetebucsfan is back. Making it simple. It’s the team. DR keeping it simple. “The chances of us being successful are very good”. It’s football, not rocket science. I have watched Baker far too long to think he may regress-that ain’t happening. What you see is what you get, every play. We’ve got a chance to be very, very good. Because Tampa has patiently and quietly built a very, very good football team. Bakers last year at OU he got us to the playoffs (4 teams). Georgia beat us 54-48 in overtime. Georgia shocked the nation that year giving up barely a touchdown a game all year. Only time I ever saw Baker cry. I still haven’t forgiven Lincoln Riley for that God Awful defense. That night I remember thinking that this guy is good enough to win a Super Bowl. All he needs is a team that plays like him. Who’d of thought it’d be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But it is. And DR, trying to sneak in there something like a top ten offense? Poppycock! I’m close to thinking this might just be the most efficient offense I’ve ever seen. And I ain’t whistling Dixie!
June 23rd, 2025 at 10:55 am
Anyone that thinks we should go out and get an “elite” quarterback just doesn’t know what we already have. Time will explain it to those folks. There is a reason Baker finished in the top 4 in Heisman voting for 3 years. That’s only been done by 2 others at his level since 1948, Hershel Walker, Archie Griffin…. and Baker Mayfield.
The Baker haters love to talk about Baker being only 6″ 1″ . The reason Baker is only 6′ 1″ is to give the other quarterbacks like Burrows at 6′ 4″ and Josh Allen at 6′ 5″ a fair chance at being great quarterbacks too. If Baker was 6′ 5″ there would only be second place. This way in their minds they have a chance. You know it’s true!! 😂 2025 is when we separate the men from the boys.
June 23rd, 2025 at 11:42 am
Joe, do you go out of your way to quote these sports analysts about Baker Mayfield’s regression or are they that bias or stupid?
Is the bias so blatant!
June 23rd, 2025 at 11:51 am
agreed Allen Lofton-and BAKER DID LAST SEASON WITH much of the games wr rookies cause our stars were out!! This year will be EVEN BETTER IF IF IF AT LEAST a Couple of WR stay healthy-ANY 2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 23rd, 2025 at 12:11 pm
No doubt we have an elite QB and if he’s confident he has a defense that can hold the opposing QB under 350 yards, he can play accordingly and not feel like he needs a 40 burger to win every week.
June 23rd, 2025 at 12:37 pm
Unless Baker has a total meltdown, I’m not going to worry about a regression.
For example, if he only has 35 TDs this year, but we make it to the NFC championship or the SB, I wouldn’t see it as a cause for concern.
You can apply that idea to any other QB stat.
And, there’s 21 other guys on the field anytime he’s out there, too. That’s a lot of opportunities for something to go sideways that could negatively impact his numbers.
Every QB has up or down seasons. Baker regressing or having a bad season would get a lot more attention because he’s one of the better QBs in the league.
June 23rd, 2025 at 12:44 pm
Funny how Stafananski, Canales, Coen are considered offensive geniuses yet all had Mayfield
Maybe it’s just Mayfield that’s doing it
June 23rd, 2025 at 12:52 pm
A lot of QB play and stats are related to the surrounding players and coaches. Baker has similar or better talent around him as last year. Grizz is an unknown but so was Coen last year. Last year Baker and other players had to learn a new offense and this year they are off to a fast start in camp.
I would suspect a lot of the top QB’s have more turnover in players around them and they might be more likely to have a down year than Bake. Overall, I think the offense will be similar to last year if the injury bug doesn’t show up.
June 23rd, 2025 at 1:09 pm
A 70% completion rate ain’t what it was once was in the NFL. Five QB’s did it last year, including Mayfield of course—Geno Smith too, as the NFL continues to climb the pass happy ladder. Smith was rewarded for his completion efforts by being declared ‘ambivalent’ by his Seattle employers. So much so he is now a Raider.
Moreover, more than half of the NFL starters were completing 65% or more of their passes.
It’s still about limiting turnovers, getting turnovers, playing good defense and scoring enough points to win.
As running backs continue to become a larger part of a team’s arial assault I wouldn’t be surprised if someone hit 75% in the near future.
June 23rd, 2025 at 1:42 pm
Regression may be likely. But the teams most likely to regress are Washington, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and KC.