Evidence The Bucs Have A Good Run Game
June 26th, 2025
Power runner, too.
Look, Joe absolutely loved how electric Bucky Irving was last year and how Bucky kick-started a moribund run game to a level Bucs fans hadn’t seen in a long, long time.
Yeah, those long runs were fun, seeing Bucky juke dudes out of their cleats. Talk about making guys miss.
But the sign of a good running game is to be able to get yards when you must get yards and the defense knows you’re about to slam the ball down their throats.
The ability to power run, get those tough yards between the tackles, is the ultimate sign of a good run game. Few teams were better than the Bucs last season.
Per the research of noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, the Bucs were one of the best teams at running on short-yardage (two yards or less for a first down). The Bucs were stuffed on short-yardage only 20 percent of the time. The Bucs were tied with Detroit and Dallas.
Only four teams, Tennessee, Chicago, Green Bay and Baltimore had short-yardage runs stuffed at a lower rate.
So yeah, when the Bucs need a yard or two, they can play smashmouth football. Very effectively, in fact.
rate of RBs being stuffed for no gain in short yardage:
44% – MIA, NE
43%
42%
41%
40%
39%
38%
37%
36% – LV
35%
34% – NO
33% – MIN
32% – SEA, LAC, DEN
31% – CIN, JAX, CLE
30%
29% – IND
28% – NYJ
27%
26% – KC, WAS, HOU
25%
24% – LAR, NYG
23% – BUF, PHI, SF
22% – CAR, ARI, ATL
21%…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 25, 2025
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June 26th, 2025 at 3:34 am
Joe … ‘Bucs were one of the best teams at running on short-yardage (two yards or less for a first down). The Bucs were stuffed on short-yardage only 20 percent of the time.’
So the Bucs had an 80% chance last season of making a 2-point conversion (2-yards) after scoring a TD. Thus if we went for 2-point conversions every time we scored TDs, for every 5 TDs we score we’d make 4 x 2-point conversions or 8 points (instead of 5 points max by kicking the point after).
No guts, no glory. Given those odds, why not go for 2-points after every TD? Since we scored 57 total TDs last year, making 2-points on 80% of those would’ve yielded 90 points instead of just 57 points if we kicked the point after and were 100% successful. That’s an average of about 2 points more per game.
Those 2 Overtime games we lost? We would’ve won both of those in regulation. Losses to the 49ers & Cowboys might’ve turned out different also (both teams would’ve had to score TDs at the end to win). Same thing for the wildcard loss to the Commanders. Bucs MIGHT have gone 14-3 in the regular season, then whooped the Commanders & gone on to win the Super Bowl just by going for 2-points after every TD. The KISS principle wins every time.
June 26th, 2025 at 3:50 am
I am of the opinion that Bucky did Juke some guys but more often he just followed some superb blocks. Many from his TEs and WRs. And even one from his QB! LOL
Sometimes He just made cuts at the LOS that did not appear to me to be impressive yet he gained yards and I still don’t know how.
Go Bucs
June 26th, 2025 at 4:52 am
DR, the 2 point conversion rate in the NFL in 2024 was 41 percent. Lowest rate in the last 15 years but under 50 percent is the usual. We’re gonna have to find another way to get our points per game up by 2 points. Good news is we have plenty of weapons to do just that! Todd Bowles going for 2? Hahaha! Todd learned early about one bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
June 26th, 2025 at 7:01 am
DR, excellent take! Of course you have to consider that defenses may play the run differently at the goal line than they would if it were 3rd and 2 at their 40 yd line.
June 26th, 2025 at 7:58 am
1-2 yards with a success rate of 80% is pretty good.
What I see is CAR and ATL right there too and with CAR upgrade at Receiver and ATL upgrade at QB both teams will be scoring more points and making this Division even more competitive.
Picking up 1 to 2 yards rushing on your own 25 is easier than taking it in from the opponents two. Box is a lot fuller in that situation.
In the case of 2 point conversions teams passed 71.9 % and ran 28.1% in 2024 which tells me teams felt that they had a better shot passing which proves my point. NFL Overall success was 46% Although the rush was more successful at 54% to think that the Bucs would make 4 out of 5 running the ball and increase scoring by 2 points a game is crazy.
By using the same kind of Math. If Bucs can miraculously out perform the NFL as a whole by a factor of 1.73 based on a 80% Buc success / 46% NFL Success rate Bucs scoring would have been 22.9 (NFL average PPG 2024) x 1.73 or 39.6 in 2024 and the best in NFL history by just under 1 PPG.
Most of the time Defensive Coordinators stay on their side of the ball in their wheelhouse. Maybe Bowles could draw up a couple trick plays to make the 2025 season more enjoyable.
June 26th, 2025 at 8:07 am
go back and watch Bucky and he has a unique way of bending his body near contact so that he’s very hard to tackle, kid is special
June 26th, 2025 at 11:29 am
I think every offensive lineman will improve this year.
Mauch and Barton will come back bigger and stronger.
Goedeke and Wirfs will come back healed up.
(Wirfs needs to lose some weight to protect his ankles and knees)
June 26th, 2025 at 11:30 am
Brederson has his swag back. And hopefully he also got stronger this off-season.