Dependable Third Down Baker Mayfield
June 15th, 2025
Third down man.
Well, this is refreshing.
Baker Mayfield wasn’t the most accurate quarterback on third downs last year in the NFL. But he was close.
Per handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, the veteran was the fourth-most accurate quarterback on third downs.
Now Joe doesn’t know, nor did Sharp explain, how he determined “accurate.” Was it just completion percentage? Did Mayfield throw on-target better than most quarterbacks? Did receivers have the fourth-least amount of drops on third down?
This is all a mystery to Joe.
However, what is very good is the guy responsible for devising the third-down offense is now the Bucs’ shot-caller on offense, Josh Grizzard. So he knows what works and doesn’t for Mayfield on this money down.
This makes Joe feel a little better. A three-finger pour of good Kentucky bourbon does, too.
most accurate QBs on 3rd down
1. Joe Burrow
2. Geno Smith
3. Kirk Cousins
4. Baker Mayfield
5. Brock Purdy
6. Daniel Jones
7. Patrick Mahomes
8. Cooper Rush
9. Jalen Hurts
10. Lamar Jackson
11. Jayden Daniels
12. Joe Flacco
13. Kyler Murray
14. Jared Goff
15. Russell Wilson
16.…— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 14, 2025
June 15th, 2025 at 12:03 am
It’s Saturday. .
Make it a five finger pour, Joe! You’ve earned it.
June 15th, 2025 at 12:54 am
Ooops, there goes our quarterback, leading Mahomes in another stat, again. 🤣
June 15th, 2025 at 1:15 am
It’s strange how Deshaun Watson was one of the best qb in the league and then he went to Cleveland to save them and he completely and utterly fell apart. J. Winston went there and also completely and utterly fell apart 😳 poor poor Jameis 😢 but Baker didn’t as a rookie. In 2020 he had KC beat, until the targeting no call play that cost them the game and KC played in the superbowl 2 weeks later. That was Cleveland, Baker had beating KC… the superbowl team. I see JW down in the 30’s and Watson is nowhere to be found in the top 35. Baker is fixing to turn it on and show the NFL what he is made of😃
June 15th, 2025 at 5:56 am
Hmm. 3 QBs in front of Baker in 3rd down accuracy? Maybe that’s inaccurate. Burrow, Smith and Cousins. Those three don’t hold a candle to Baker in 3rd down conversion rate. Because Baker can out scramble those three. The Bucs led the league in 3rd down conversion rates. Because Baker is a tougher QB than the other three. Our QB led the league in 3rd down conversions.
June 15th, 2025 at 6:07 am
As you’ve shown before joe, Bucs had the BEST 3rd down percentage in the NFL last season, making 50.9% of their 3rd down attempts. Baker was obviously a monstrous part of that, both with his passing AND with his running. He has an outstanding 2024, and I’ll be ecstatic if he duplicates that in 2025.
What I’d also like to see though is for Todd to go for it on 4th down more in 2025. In 17 games last season we only ‘went for it’ on 4th down 14 times. We made it on 9 of those (64.3%). That ranked us an impressive 8th in the NFL. We actually ranked BETTER than that (2nd) in 2023 (66.7%), making 12 of 18 attempts on 4th down.
Obviously Todd doesn’t like to gamble much on 4th down, because those are very low ‘4th down attempts’. Last season 7 teams ranked higher than we did:
1 – Washington – 23 attempts – 20 made – 87.0%
2 – Buffalo – 22 attempts – 16 made – 72.7%
3 – Kansas City – 17 attempts – 12 made – 70.6%
4 – Philadelphia – 27 attempts – 19 made – 70.4%
5 – Denver – 22 attempts – 15 made – 68.2%
6 – Atlanta – 31 attempts – 21 made – 67.7%
7 – Detroit – 33 attempts – 22 made – 66.7%
7 – LA Rams – 24 attempts – 16 made – 66.7%
9 – Tampa Bay – 14 attempts – 9 made – 64.3%
Interestingly all those teams EXCEPT the Falcons had winning records AND made the playoffs. ALL those teams attempted MORE 4th down conversions than we did, and all of them made considerably more than we did. 4th down conversions very often led to TDs, which often makes a difference in winning vs losing (as opposed to settling for FGs on 4th down).
For example, Washington beat us in the playoffs last year because they converted 3 of 5 of their 4th down attempts, and went on to score 2 TDs on those 3 successful conversions (had they ‘settled’ for FGs, they would’ve scored 8 less points and lost the game).
June 15th, 2025 at 6:18 am
100 percent of coaches know how important 3rd down conversions are. 2024 Mayfield had 50.9, followed by Mahommes 48.5, Lamar Jackson 48.2, Goff 47.6, Burrow 46.7, Daniels 45.6, Josh Allen 44.1, Purdy 42.6, and rounding out the top ten Jalen Hurts 41.7. Baker threw for more touchdowns than any of those these QBs the last two years. He’s the best QB in the NFL leading a team that is getting close to being one of the better teams in the NFL. Defense moves into the top ten we are the best team in this league.
June 15th, 2025 at 6:25 am
That’s with top 2 receivers missing half the season and a quarter of the season. Throwing to rookies and practice squad receivers. I guess Mayfield is maybe a mid tier player. Idiots.
June 15th, 2025 at 6:56 am
— DefenseRules
As always thanks for your detailed posts.
I was REALLY surprised not to see the Lions on that list.
I presume they would be if the list was based on “attempts” vs “percentage” … right?
June 15th, 2025 at 7:15 am
Todd … Lions were on that list, tied for #7 with Atlanta. They BTW had the MOST 4th down conversion attempts (33) of any in the Top-10, as well as the most successfully made (22).
June 15th, 2025 at 7:16 am
Joe, now that we’re in a long dry spell regarding football news, maybe an update on cheerleaders and their NFL ranking should be a topic. Underwear practices would be good.
June 15th, 2025 at 7:32 am
We lucked out when we got Baker. And he lucked out when we took him in. Match made in heaven. We have a franchise quarterback for the next 10 years. If you don’t like Baker, you’re not a football fan.
June 15th, 2025 at 8:34 am
I feel like some of the teams on this list padded their stats because they played the Bucs
June 15th, 2025 at 8:49 am
Great point Daveboy… Most Quarterbacks need a system that fits them, good coaches, no off field issues, and no vicious critics. As soon as Watson and,Winston lost those four they crumbled. Most star athletes are coddled from Middle school on. They never learn to deal with adversity. Meanwhile Baker was barely recruited. Walked on to Texas Tech than benched for mahomes. Walked on Oklahoma and won the Heisman. Drafted by a 1-31 team and turned them around. Then his toughness did not served him. Trying to play thru an injury hurt his stats. Andrew Berry decided to bet the house on Watson. They both lost. Watson lost his coddle network and crumbled. Critics turned on Baker. It was vicious. Panthers gave up on him too. Mcvey knew better. There was no coddling but The desperate Rams gave him a chance. Baker maxed it. Teams gave him insulting backup deals or ridiculously low one year deals. But Mr. Walk on was used to this. He believed in himself and he was experienced. He can be his own OC now. He made 2 rookie OCs fabulously rich and he is about to make another one plus himself rich.
June 15th, 2025 at 8:59 am
Cousins stats inflated by this one opponent he faced twice that decided to leave everyone short wide open.
June 15th, 2025 at 8:59 am
haha right on voyager!
June 15th, 2025 at 9:05 am
DR the distance to convert on 4th down is a factor as well unless the game is on the line. I’ll bet the majority of those 4th down attempts was 2 yds. or fewer, unless, like I said, late in game, had to convert situations. Also driving deep into opponents territory may factor in
June 15th, 2025 at 9:53 am
It also helps to have a Chris Godwin and a Mike Evans on third down. Also I notice Bucky Irving being used on many third downs just because he is so reliable.
June 15th, 2025 at 11:42 am
— DefenseRules
Oy. My bad. Right there in front of me.
Note to self, lay off the Jell-O shots!
June 15th, 2025 at 12:38 pm
2024 3rd down conversion rates
1-Tampa Bay 51.11%
2-Baltimore 50.46%
3-KC 47.31%
4-Detroit 46.98
5-Cincinnati 46.73%
The last 3 games of 2024
1-Tampa Bay 64.10%
2-Baltimore 61.54%
3-Detroit 48.57%
4-Cincinnati 43.25%
5-KC 38.71%
Big difference in the Bucs and Chiefs in the last 3 games.