The Bucs, The 2025 Draft Class And Production
April 30th, 2025
Production matters.
Joe has heard the following chatter on social media the past few days and some of the takes were from sports radio hosts and their observations of the Bucs draft this past weekend.
And Joe cannot really disagree with what seems like a general perception of the Bucs draft.
It seems — that’s the keyword here, seems — that the Bucs put a little more stock into production than projection. And it seems the folks at NextGen Stats.
Per their data, they believe the Bucs were one of the teams in the draft that collectively this past weekend focused more on production. Per a chart devised by NextGen Stats, the NFL-owned advanced stats outfit, only four teams leaned more on production in their draft classes than the Bucs.
But it wasn’t just production for the Bucs. It seems the Bucs’ draft class also measured out to be a little more athletic than average, barely in the top half of the league.
So it seems the Bucs had a philosophy entering this year’s draft. They seemed to believe production in college translates into production in the league.
Joe isn’t sure that focus is a result of this being the first Bucs draft since 2015 that former assistant general manager John Spytek didn’t have a major voice in the Bucs’ personnel room or not.
Spytek is the current general manager in Las Vegas.
Production versus traits pic.twitter.com/vvfQ7XnT75
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) April 29, 2025
April 30th, 2025 at 12:25 am
Production is pretty important.
April 30th, 2025 at 12:25 am
I’d be curious to see how our drafts measured out from the last couple of years in comparison. Might be more telling as to whether Spytek’s absence had any effect, or if this has been our MO for a while…
April 30th, 2025 at 12:49 am
Will find out in a couple of years. Licht’s drafts pre-Spytek were, well, spotty.
April 30th, 2025 at 1:42 am
What’s more important then internal relative weight is that the bucs are one of four teams in the top right quadrant: more traits AND more production
April 30th, 2025 at 1:50 am
Indeed. 2014 – 2017 drafts vs 2017 – now, quite different overall results.
April 30th, 2025 at 1:51 am
*2018 – now
April 30th, 2025 at 2:16 am
Long road to the post season…. Gotta have spare parts that fit
April 30th, 2025 at 3:13 am
This was a risk mitigation draft.
We lost four games mid season with Evans and Godwin injured – draft the WR with the highest floor – Egbuka.
We were minus five on turnovers and in a four way tie for 27th place in interceptions – draft two cornerbacks who had at least one season with several interceptions.
We had to blitz too often to get sacks – draft a DE and an OLB who produced more sacks than most.
We lost too many close games – take a WR with a floor of gadget player in the seventh round to be a wild card who may get us another win somewhere.
This surely was not a best player available draft.
We may disagree greatly about who the best players available were at different points in the draft. But, it certainly wasn’t Egbuka at the 19th pick the first round. But, with his high floor, Egbuka did meet a need and was as safe a pick as can be made in the NFL draft.
I can understand the reasons for drafting this way. It looks like the kind of drafting that enhances job security. But, it doesn’t feel like the kind of drafting that wins Super Bowls.
Time will tell.
April 30th, 2025 at 4:07 am
Toopanca … ‘I can understand the reasons for drafting this way. It looks like the kind of drafting that enhances job security. But, it doesn’t feel like the kind of drafting that wins Super Bowls. Time will tell’.
Part of me agrees with you Toopanca, but another part of me believes that we’re still in the hunt, primarily because the hunt hasn’t even begun yet. We’ve still got the rest of free agency (and some decent salary CAP money) to further improve our defense.
And that’s admittedly what I’m concerned about this year: our defense. We allowed 325 points on the season in 2023 … 19.1 PPG average, enroute to a #5 ranking. But our offense only scored 348 points … 20.5 PPG average … and we went 9-8.
But last year our offense literally exploded & scored 502 points in 2024 … 29.5 PPG average. That’s an incredible improvement of 9 PPG, and resulted in a #4 ranking offensively. But our defense slid backwards, allowing 385 points in 2024 … 22.6 PPG average to a #16 ranking. That’s going backwards by 3.5 PPG average, and it cost us several games IMO (including the wildcard loss).
Bucs didn’t make any dramatic defensive improvements in free agency (we added Haason Reddick & Anthony Walker, and re-signed LVD, Anthony Nelson, Bryce Hall & Greg Gaines). Average age: 30. Improved our depth via the draft (2 CBs & 2 DE/OLBs) but I doubt any of those 4 are inline for a starting job this Sept (you never know though, and I do think the 2 CBs will get some decent field time this season). Bottom lin e though is that I think we still need a couple more defensive improvements to be a bonafide Super Bowl contender this season.
April 30th, 2025 at 5:32 am
Production is fact. Potential is JTS and Diva. I give Jason credit for learning from his mistakes. PFF stats? Nah…
Go Bucs!
April 30th, 2025 at 5:33 am
Looks like the Dolphins have cornered the “less traits less production” market, lol.
April 30th, 2025 at 6:25 am
We repeatedly see the 4 game losing streak blamed on the fact that Evans and Godwin were out thus justifying spending the first round pick cramming another receiver in to the fold when defense is where the holes are in this team….
We dont see much of the blame for that 4 game losing streak on the fact that the defense gave up 41, 31, 30 and 23 points in those 4 games.
In 2 of the 4 games of that streak the offense had more that 300 yards passing….that said the other two were not good and the offense collapsed playing the niners….