Bucs’ Playoff Probability Rises
November 15th, 2024
So on Monday, Joe highlighted NFL.com data models showing the Bucs’ shot at the playoffs is 33 percent.
New York Times spreadsheeters had the Bucs with a 15 percent probability.
After last night’s Eagles win against the Commandoes, the Bucs numbers have improved. The New York Times model bumped the Bucs to 18 percent and NFL.com hiked Tampa Bay’s postseason chances to 37 percent.
It’s all about the Bucs’ remaining schedule. That explains why the Bucs, at 4-6, have much better odds of making the postseason than the Rams, Bears and Seahawks, which all have 4-5 records.
NFL data analytics queen Cynthia Frelund freshly crafted her own data and has stamped the Bucs at 8.6 wins this season. Of course, there’s no such thing as a “.6” victory, so that means she sees the Bucs losing three more games.
Damn, if the Bucs actually lose three more games against the likes of the Giants, Panthers (twice) and Raiders, plus the imploding Cowboys and slimy Saints, then Joe will ready for big changes. That would be an unacceptable result.
One thing, however, is very clear from all the data studies, a 10-7 record will be required to make the NFC postseason.
((For those wondering, here’s the New York Times explanation of its postseason probability numbers …. “We create an offensive and defensive projection for every NFL team from a linear regression model that incorporates various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate. These projections estimate how many points each team would be expected to score and allow in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site. We then assign a probability of how likely a team is to win a given me by adjusting for opponent and location. Taking into account each team’s current record, health and remaining schedule, we use these game-by-game projections to simulate the rest of the season (including the playoffs) 100,000 times.”)
November 15th, 2024 at 8:38 am
I truly will not invest my feelings into the notion of us making the playoffs. I watched how the first falcons game, the KC game and the 9ers game ended. We dont deserve to be in thr playoffs. We deserve a Defensive Coordinator. God Bless and Go Bucs.
November 15th, 2024 at 8:39 am
So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance
November 15th, 2024 at 8:43 am
100% Bucs win out the season and make a deep run in the playoffs. It’s going to happen, Keeping it real in Ireland.
November 15th, 2024 at 8:46 am
Bucs will run the table
November 15th, 2024 at 8:59 am
Go Bucs!
November 15th, 2024 at 9:00 am
Hopeium is my illegal vice of preference.
November 15th, 2024 at 9:08 am
Per my Italian friend Miguel, “just cut the BS”. This season is over. Look at the real bright side, higher draft ang an a new oaching staff.
November 15th, 2024 at 9:27 am
Are the pints going down good today, Irish Laughter? 😆
November 15th, 2024 at 9:33 am
I’d never trust anything from an Italian man who’s named Miguel….
November 15th, 2024 at 10:06 am
Making the playoffs is meaningless. Lots of bad teams make the Wild Card. That Eagles team the Bucs beat last year was a mess. If you don’t make the second round, you aren’t a contender at all. That should be the standard. All this 9-8, 8-9 formula stuff to sneak into the tournament is nonsense.
November 15th, 2024 at 10:09 am
My household we still believe in the Baker we trust big fan of young Bucky Love the danger of Rashad White by Kevin’s coming back hell even the defense is getting a little stronger I know I know it doesn’t take much for it to get any stronger but it is…..let’s freaking go Bucs
November 15th, 2024 at 11:05 am
Let’s go Broncos!
I am fully confident (health dependent) in the Bucs being at least 5-2 after the bye. My fear are those last 2 division games. Gonna need both and after how last year went… I have my doubts.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:12 am
Remember that time we won out our last 8 games, the Super Bowl, after our bye week? Repeat that, let’s go!
November 15th, 2024 at 11:12 am
Once we resign Mike Edward, the defense will play well enough to win the division. While in the playoffs Bowles will get himself fired with his decision making like last playoff game in Detroit. He flat out gave up.
Horrrrrble!
November 15th, 2024 at 11:12 am
In 2020^
November 15th, 2024 at 11:14 am
Gulp. In my household, we still believe in punctuation.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:16 am
I’m with SteveK!!!
The sun is shining!
I predict we will not lose this Sunday.
Go Bucs!!
November 15th, 2024 at 11:22 am
Playoffs, Playoffs!!!. My goodness with this defense!, playoffs.
LOL, I don’t think so. Joe says it best with this defense any team is cabable of beating this team. Yes, losing 3 of the next 7 truely possible if not likely.Really you do not want to see this defense in the playoffs. Please remember even with Jamal Dean , back, he plays soft and the middle of the field will be a problem, especially with little edge rush. We just need a few better players, till then please don’t talk playoffs.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:27 am
Playoffs!? This team blows.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:34 am
Joe didn’t mention the Chargers. Herbert will have a career day against this defense. Then 4-2 in the six games Joe mentioned makes the season record 8-9. This is the most likely scenario.
November 15th, 2024 at 11:34 am
Bucs deserve a new Dc and a Hc. Bring on bellicheck. He has a new girlfriend and the sun will be good for him.
November 15th, 2024 at 12:12 pm
Bowles can win out and if we lose again in the first rd of the playoffs, I believe he’s done. Ownership wants to see us trending upwards, at best we’re going sideways. I anticipate a bold move this offseason, this team has talent to be better than year after year of 5 game losing streaks and 9-8 playoff spots.
November 15th, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Bucs deserve a better fan blog too negative on here.
November 15th, 2024 at 12:39 pm
9-8 Bowles , always ,,, now if we can go 10-7 and that loss comes to the Chargers ,, our NFC tiebreaker will look pretty good including beating Wash head to head ,,, lots of football still to play,,, one game at a time
November 15th, 2024 at 12:50 pm
Don’t give 2 shi$$ if they win out. Radio needs to go. Chargers bounced Marty after a 14 win season. I’ve seen enough he’s a 500 coach at best. We’re banking on playing bums to finish right. Time to go
November 15th, 2024 at 12:55 pm
Expanding on NFC record ,,if we beat panthers 2x, saints, cowboys , Giants ,,, that puts us 9-3 in NFC,,, then look ,,,Seattle already has 4 losses, (NFC) , Rams have 4 losses (NFC) , AZ has 3 losses (NFC),, GB has 3 losses (NFC), Minn 2 losses (NFC), Wash 2 losses (NFC) so , in my scenario , 9-8 winning those games gets us in and who wants to play us on wildcard weekend
November 15th, 2024 at 12:59 pm
6-1?
Come on. Has Bowles even had a stretch like that ever? In 8 years?
November 15th, 2024 at 1:00 pm
Sorry ,,, one last I just figured,, even SF already has 3 conf losses and in a 3 way tie it comes to Conf (head to head out) so let’s win those games and see
November 15th, 2024 at 1:12 pm
Nothing in Todd Blows career shows he can finish 6-1 or better. He is so inept as a coordinator that he routinely makes bad QB’s look better than they are. QB’s and offenses are having their season best day and sometimes career best against this clown.
Bucs will win 3 maybe 4 more games and be in the 7 or 8 win category.
November 15th, 2024 at 1:14 pm
Sean McVay won the Super Bowl after the ’21 season, promptly lost 11 games the following season (TONS of injuries) Did that mean he was a crappy coach?
November 15th, 2024 at 1:48 pm
One game at a time. This team is so bad, they can’t even think about the playoffs. Todd has learned how to lose close games, make bone headed in game decisions, and put the team a position to fail. What makes anyone think he will magically improve over the next 7 games? This team will be lucky to win 4 more games. The guy needs to be gone and Jason needs to find some decent FAs in the off-season and unload some of the horrible players on defense.
November 15th, 2024 at 2:30 pm
Buc fan base deserves a better team.
November 15th, 2024 at 2:32 pm
We have to get healthy! We have played the second most difficult schedule in nfl history and honestly we could have won every game. Now the schedule gets easier two wins over NY Giants and Carolina will
Put us at 6-6 let’s see where we stand at that point.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:31 pm
Bucs aren’t making the playoffs with a QB that can’t compete passes over 7 yards.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:45 pm
Algo doesn’t like mathematics apparently.
And, LOL to the idiot who bashes Baker and cries for his poster boy, when Baker’s offense has outperformed any other Bucs offense, with a QB who is now throwing to bricklayers, Kenny Bell II and Jaelen Dardung Jr.
Glennon would really be tearing it up, though. His pocket presence and escapability would translate into 15 more sacks than Baker has eaten and a whole lot of “good grief what was that” reactions. D-bag.
November 15th, 2024 at 3:46 pm
Tampa is a good team but currently the injuries are devastating. Tampa should not lose 3 more games with the remaining schedule. If they do they don’t deserve the playoffs. I see a run out as easily possible (with Evans back). I still don’t see a deep playoff run with the current repeated secondary issues. Stay positive though this team beat Detroit!
November 15th, 2024 at 9:39 pm
View from 132 Says:
November 15th, 2024 at 10:06 am
Making the playoffs is meaningless. Lots of bad teams make the Wild Card. That Eagles team the Bucs beat last year was a mess. If you don’t make the second round, you aren’t a contender at all. That should be the standard. All this 9-8, 8-9 formula stuff to sneak into the tournament is nonsense.
Tell that to the giants that defeated the perfect Pats….. just get in!
November 16th, 2024 at 7:24 am
Who cares. This defense has proven it cant stop any team with a decent offense.
November 16th, 2024 at 11:54 am
10-7. The negativity on this board is hard to take. Guess most of you weren’t around 10 15 years ago. At least we got a shot, unlike many many years of misery. Derrick Brook’s last game we were a 7 point favorite at home against a team that snuck in the playoffs as a wildcard. That team won a superbowl. You never know.
November 16th, 2024 at 12:02 pm
10 wins is doable, we should be favored every game but one down the stretch. The negativity here is terrible. Guess you were not around 10 20 years ago when our seasons were over in September
.Derrick Brooks’s last game we were favored by 7 at home. Wildcard team beat us and went on to win the Super Bowl. Maybe cause I am a Mets fan but ya gotta believe!