Value Betting On The Bucs

June 23rd, 2024

Unless it’s a gift, or perhaps $10 or $20 just for fun, fans won’t catch Joe wagering on any form of a team’s season win total before late August.

Too much can go wrong — or right — before then.

But that doesn’t stop the burgeoning sports gambling industry from dissecting season-result wagers months before all the data and rosters are on the table.

A CBS Sportsline crew dove into the NFC South last week and, thankfully, a wise voice of reason and accomplished handicapper was against the lunacy that is the Falcons as big favorites to win the NFC South — and he was bullish on the Bucs.

Joe isn’t telling folks to gamble, but if you do, at least consult a proven guru who uses sound data and reason.

Alex Selesnick of CBS Sports is one of those guys. Per CBS, the operator of the noted @PropStarz social media is 461-350 on NFL bets entering the 2024 season.

Currently, the Falcons are a -120 favorite to win the NFC South, meaning a $120 bet on Atlanta will only profit $100 if you win. The Bucs are +300, so a $100 Bucs wager can score a $300 profit.

Selesnick is in a bit of disbelief when it comes to the Falcons.

“I’m not overly impressed with Atlanta’s roster, frankly. I think the -120, to me this is a much more even race in this division,” Selesnick said. “You look at Atlanta’s defense, I still think there’s major question marks on the defense. And frankly, I just don’t think they deserve to be such an overwhelming favorite in this division. … They’re very unproven.”

The Bucs’ roster talent puts a smile on Selesnick’s face and he says they have the best defense in the division with an offense nearly as good as Atlanta’s. He called the Bucs repeating as NFC South chapms a strong value bet.

Selesnick also likes Carolina as a potential value pick because they’re a whopping +1200 underdog. That means $10 wagered on the Panthers could pull back 12 times that in profit.

While Joe won’t pull the trigger with any significance now, that +300 on the Bucs winning their third consecutive NFC South crown sure is tempting.

11 Responses to “Value Betting On The Bucs”

  1. BigMacAttack Says:

    Golf has taken over nascar as the number 1 redneck sport. If you like to sports bet, golf is the place to wager.

  2. Bring back the lawn chairs Says:

    I like the Bucs at 3-1 to win the south. Having said that; a man should never gamble more than he can afford to lose.

  3. CallTheSaltTruck Says:

    I won betting on the Bucs at 8-1 odds last year. I echo the author and others in the topic. Be responsible with it. But yeah, 3-1 odds this year feels like another good bet.

  4. RBUC Says:

    I also wagered on the Bucs last season to end up the winner of the NFCS division even thou most predicted them to struggle. However, even thou the outside noise this season is similar I think we are in for a twist! I think 2 teams from the NFCS make the playoffs in 2024!! I’m drinking the Falcons kool-aid to be the division winner while the Bucs grab a wildcard spot. As a Bucs fan it would be cool to matchup against the Falcons for a 3rd time within the 2024 season knocking them out of the playoffs in their house 🚩☠️🏈!!

  5. MadMax Says:

    Bet the over on our Bucs, the under on the Ravens.

    I placed a 20 on Edmonton to win the stanley back in February…we’ll see tomorrow night…what a series that has been. Somebody placed a thousand on a parlay of Messi being the top scorer (i dont follow soccer), kc winning the SB, and edmonton winning the Stanley….they’ll win $580,000….is that crazy or what lol

  6. George Griffith Says:

    @RBUC I just can’t see pulling a wild card out of this division mainly because of the very hard schedule at the Bucs have this year I can see them at 10-7 at best but I hope they do better and find a way to Win It

  7. Rod Munch Says:

    It’s always fun to take like $100 and make a few bets before the season, it really does add to the fun of things if you spread the money around and make a few ridiculous prop bets. Talking $100 total – not per bet of course. I did that in like 2015 or so, and I’m still riding that same $100 – so the per year entertainment value is great. Just don’t expect to get rich or ever see that money again – that way you’re not going to feel bad when you had Brady as the league MVP and they give it to Rodgers, even though Brady was clearly better.

  8. Fred McNeil Says:

    If I were a betting man I’d take that bet.
    I think the Falcons will have a divided locker room if Cousins struggles the least bit.

  9. Steven Says:

    Are we not going for 4 in a row???

  10. heyjude Says:

    Like what Selesnick said about the Bucs and Falcons. Don’t agree about the Panthers quite yet. Just read the other article about Canales being 28th in avoiding 3rd downs, worse than Leftwich. I guess all that the Panthers could do is go up, but not certain that will happen. Canales only had one year as OC, and this is his first season as head coach.

    Go Bucs!

  11. Hodad Says:

    Joe Bucs Bet!