Baker Mayfield: Better Than Average
June 6th, 2024
Flipped the script.
The Bucs bucked the trend last year.
Good guy and NFL stathead Chase Stuart of FootballDatabase.com did some research earlier this year and twittered out the results. One reason, he believes, for quarterback play dropping off last year was that defenses were getting more sacks.
(Yes, even the Bucs had four more sacks this past season. No, seriously.)
However, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield plays by his own rules.
Mayfield had his third-lowest sack percentage of his career last season, getting put on the ground on 6.6 percent of his sacks. Per Stuart, the league average for quarterback sacks percentage was 7 percent.
Maybe this is why Mayfield set a career-high of yards thrown in a season and touchdowns thrown in a season?
Also, you could make the point that the Bucs offensive line wasn’t as horrible as the loud crowd wants you to believe it was.
The disparity between OL talent and DL talent was very noticeable in 2023. And QB play was down.
Across the NFL, QBs were sacked on over 7% of passes while averaging under 11 yards per completion.
Graph below:
Black line/Right Y-Axis: Sack Rate
Red Line/Left Y-Axis: Yd/Cmp pic.twitter.com/x3TstEYI5o— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) January 11, 2024
June 6th, 2024 at 9:13 am
2 OBSERVATIONS
1. Pretty sure that sudden massive peaks in 1998 was Randy Moss and 2011 was Calvin Johnson. (BTW, Stood next to Calvin last month. OMG! He’s huge. Peak shape. He could play.)
2. Interesting that the NFL has so much WR talent, salaries are skyrocketing, and yet the average YPC goes down.
June 6th, 2024 at 9:17 am
Mauch gave up 7 sacks last year so let’s see how he does this year, it’s not only strength, it’s also about technique, and knowing the rushers. With Godwin in the slot, I expect more option routes and quick slants that will reduce sacks. With a better run game, 3rd down will be more manageable.
June 6th, 2024 at 9:41 am
Believe it or not the Bucs Oline was very solid in pass protection last year….
Run blocking wasnt as great but its hard to make a evaluation on that when your #2 running back for half the year is KeyShawn Vaughn
June 6th, 2024 at 9:43 am
The Lions playoff game is when pass protection fell apartment….lots of that due to poor game planning by Canales
June 6th, 2024 at 9:50 am
I think I watched different games last season. The one’s I saw had historically slow starts and there was a six game loosing streak in the middle of it.
I would be hard pressed to call that QB above-average.
June 6th, 2024 at 10:06 am
We saw average vs greatness in the Superbowl in overtime. The average QB lead his team to a FG and the best QB lead his team to a walk-off TD. Not an int. Mahomes didn’t get stopped before he reached midfield. Having an average QB nowadays won’t get the chip. The days of teams being lead with defense is done.
Do you really have confidence in Baker to lead his team to a TD to win a game, in the playoffs? If so, why?
June 6th, 2024 at 10:33 am
The NFL has become flag football. Snap, step, throw. I’d love to see attempts sorted by yardage downfield. The modern greats rarely throw deep… no time and not worth the big hit on the QB.
June 6th, 2024 at 10:40 am
Best QB in the Division gives you a chance to win majority of weeks
All you can ask for as a fan
June 6th, 2024 at 10:40 am
Craig, there was no 6 game losing streak and in that 4 game losing streak your referring to, 2 of those games Mayfield lead a go ahead score in the final minutes only for the defense to blow it against the Falcons and Texans…..
Only morons who wanted to see Mayfield benched for Trask blamed Mayfield for that Texans loss.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:04 am
he is hard to get, i give him that.
he is slightly above average and does have room and time to grow into a very good qb. I just would not put that label on him after 1 decent year.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:07 am
I’m sure the Bucs are hard at work solving two major issues. Slow starts by the offense and long sustained drives given up by the defense. Even though the D was able to keep teams out of the end zone for the most part, those long drives took away at least one offensive possession a game.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:35 am
“Maybe this is why Mayfield set a career-high of yards thrown in a season and touchdowns thrown in a season?”
That his best performances were in the fourth quarter playing catch-up against prevent defenses has a lot to do with it.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:50 am
This is on the head coach, who yearns for 1974 football. It’s that simple. And that’s not going to change no matter how much better Coen is than Canales was.
Unless Jason lets Todd know in no uncertain terms, this is the real prove it year. No more excuses about cap, post Brady depression, whatever. Just win – and that happens best by the philosophy of outscoring the opponent (attack minded) versus keeping the opponent from scoring more than you (turtle minded). Of course you try to do both but it’s a matter of the strategy and emphasis that goes into gameplanning.
C’mon, Todd – you can evolve! Do it.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:51 am
What’s weird is that if you did a regression line through these datasets, you’d find a significant downward trend in
June 6th, 2024 at 11:53 am
What’s weird is that if you did a regression line through these datasets, you’d find a significant downward trend in both sack rate and yards per completion. It’s true though that since 2020, sacks are up and YPC are down.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:59 am
They have been claiming it’s now a quarterback/receiver/offense league since Montana hit Dwight Clark for the win against Dallas way back when. Defense has won a lot of Super Bowls in that time and will continue to do so. Mahomes was not at his best last year and the Chiefs wideouts were mediocre. They had the best defense in the league and won it all anyway.
June 6th, 2024 at 12:02 pm
Baker eluded a lot of sacks last year. Brady would have been turned into a quadriplegic.
June 6th, 2024 at 1:19 pm
I think ‘chihuahua’ is the perfect analogy. I’m not sure I have ever seen even the first episode of “Conan The Barbarian” or whatever… Only just Conan O’Brien. But, I didn’t get the whole “THE Women” thing either… THEIR Women makes much more sense.
June 6th, 2024 at 2:20 pm
He’ll be much better this season with a better IOL.
June 6th, 2024 at 3:32 pm
The NYG gave up 85 sacks in 2023…85!!!
That’s 20 more than #2/3…(tied at 65 – WAS & CAR)
While NYJ & TEN tied for #4/5 by allowing 64 a piece.
Context adds perspective. No one should complain too loudly about Bucs surrendering 40.
June 6th, 2024 at 3:36 pm
I am a Baker guy. With that being said any quarterback on any roster in the NFL can get the job done if they have time to throw and a running game. (Except Ryan Leaf). It’s no simpler than that, believe me I am no expert like a lot of you guys. If Baker has a better running game and has time to throw that equals wins. Of course he is going to make a mistake here and there and yes he unfortunately he will have a game where he not at his very best. I want Baker here until he retires I hope that’s a great 10 year stretch. Go Buc LFG
June 6th, 2024 at 3:58 pm
Joe. I’ve bin screaming that our line isn’t as trash as people are saying. Even hainsey isn’t trash like most make him out to be. There is 2 parts to it tho. Pass blocking has bin better than average and that’s with hainsey. Now the run blocking is the problem. Hainsey isn’t the best at that I will admit but why are they trying to run behind him anyways when you got wirfs doesn’t make sense. Gotta play to our guys strengths. These offense was built to pass just like our defense was built for man vs man not zone yet for some reason we arnt playing to our guys strengths
June 6th, 2024 at 5:34 pm
I’m a Baker fan myself, but I believe he was taken to the ground on 100% of his sacks- not 6.6.
June 6th, 2024 at 7:32 pm
Team’s most important and best player. I’d rather have Baker than anyone. Easy to root for as long as he doesn’t mysteriously threaten the fan’s sense of manhood. IMHO!
June 6th, 2024 at 8:16 pm
What’s his win loss record? Yeah he’s above average, like 51% but according to fanbois he matches up against Brady and Mahomies
June 6th, 2024 at 10:58 pm
It wasn’t the offensive line that was keeping Baker on his feet, it was his escape ability. I lost count of how many times Baker would shrug off a sure fire sack and start to scramble and look for an open receiver.
June 6th, 2024 at 11:35 pm
Totally disagree. The O-line was as terrible as PFF reports say they were. Baker just happened to be a greater magician than anyone gives him credit for. Praying the O-line is much better this year for Baker’s health AND for the running game.
June 7th, 2024 at 2:23 am
History tells me that if our offensive line makes Baker run for his life like last year, his luck will eventually run out.
Hey at least all of us will finally get to see Trask with the ones!
Go Bucs!
June 7th, 2024 at 8:01 am
“Mayfield had his third-lowest sack percentage of his career last season, getting put on the ground on 6.6 percent of his sacks.”
That’s not accurate. Sack percentage is the percentage of times sacked WHEN ATTEMPTING TO PASS.
June 7th, 2024 at 8:09 am
“Baker Mayfield: Better Than Average”
This too is inaccurate. Mayfield’s 2023 sack percentage of 6.6% puts him at 21st among the 33 quarterbacks with the required minimum number of pass attempts. This is from the same database you linked to: Pro Football Reference.
June 7th, 2024 at 9:34 am
If you’re not on the ground it’s not a sack.
Baker was a magician escaping sacks, as has been noted. Tarkenton-like.
June 7th, 2024 at 11:31 pm
Actually “Big” Bakers 2023 stats match him up with Mahomes, you just don’t like it.
June 8th, 2024 at 4:41 pm
Actually Bakers 2023 passer rating was 94.6 while Mahomes’ was 92.6, so…
June 8th, 2024 at 4:44 pm
Playoff passer rating: Mahomes 100.3, Bakers 106.3. So I’m not sure why comparing the 2 is strange Big??