Unpredictability
May 22nd, 2024
Bucs coach Todd Bowles.
With former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, you could be sure the Bucs were going to run up the middle and then feed Mike Evans.
The latter goal was smart. Evans is one of the best receivers to ever play the game. The running-up-the-middle element wasn’t so smart. Try as he might, Canales was never going to turn Rachaad White into Marshawn Lynch.
While individually the Bucs improved (Baker Mayfield had a career year, White developed into a major passing weapon, Evans led the league in touchdowns) the Bucs offense was blah. Maybe boring.
The way Bucs coach Todd Bowles spoke about new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, this year’s offense will be more diverse, heaven forbid.
“He has a very wide variety of plays that he can do from certain formations,” Bowles explained. “It’s not just the same thing. The action may look the same, but the play may not be the same and the tweaks and the adjustments off of it [are] very difficult and complex that way.
“That’s what we’ve got to get down, offensively.”
Bowles added he likes the “precision” of Coen’s offense. Now in OTA goals, Bowles said, are for everyone to get on the same page so the offense and the learning can grow.
Joe remembers last year, a rare time in the press box you could hear one fan holler (it’s a closed press box), a fan screamed after maybe the sixth run up the middle in a row, the fan bellowed, “Quit running the ball!”
Usually you hear fans holler to run the ball, not to quit running the ball. Joe thinks about that and laughs every time.
Fair to suggest fans won’t get uptight this fall with repetitive plays from Coen, as Bowles explained.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:05 am
I went to an Airforce v. Navy game in Annapolis one year.
Each team had about 55 offensive plays. Both teams ran the ball over 45 times.
I was shouting stop running the ball, the forward pass has been invented.
Hated when that game went into overtime.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:10 am
My biggest complaint last year was about ‘predictability’, and this is on coaching.
I expect better game planning this year, with an emphasis on match-ups and taking advantage of our opponents weaknesses while avoiding their strengths.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:10 am
That’s what we’ve got to get down, offensively.”
Get down like four flat tires!
Yeah, I think coach feels that sense of urgency that some of us fans feel as well, especially the Oline. They need to be on the field together as much as possible.
Joe from the OTA’s do you get a sense of what the oline will look like? Does it seem to you that decisions have been made as to which player will be in which position?
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:13 am
People keep mentioning that was Bakers career year like he was one of the top 3 QBs in the game. Hopefully that run game gives him some help because it rare players have career years 2 years in a row.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:30 am
I’m more worried about what Coen can do to remedy the slow starts & scoring more points in the first half more than I care for play calls or designs.
Predicatbalility is overrated, because even if the D knows its coming they still gotta stop it. I can guarantee you there’s always at least 1 of 11 defenders who’s got a bead on what an offense is trying to do, these guys all watch the same tape but trying to stop it between whistles is still the challenge.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:45 am
Mayfield will have a better year. Better Players, Better Play Calling, Better Mojo Between Players and hopefully a better run game…..Canales was not all that.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:52 am
Having a beefier Center is going to help the offense to be more efficient and effective. At the end of the day, you can have the best playcalling in the business but if you don’t have the players to execute it, then it will be difficult to achieve success.
May 22nd, 2024 at 9:58 am
Awesome story about the fan yelling Joe.
And the theme of the story – complexity.
Ahh, complexity. Todd the genius loves him some complexity. If he could only teach his players what his beautiful mind sees. Maybe Coen can, and if he does, maybe he can help Todd teach his players to play pass defense.
May 22nd, 2024 at 10:03 am
this is todd’s offense.
was with lefty, was with canales
the up the gut stuff was too moronic not to be driven from above
thats like saying the EV push is organic and not driven by this administration.
total bs
May 22nd, 2024 at 10:05 am
“Quit running the ball!”
You probably heard me from California yelling that!
May 22nd, 2024 at 10:15 am
Bingo, Mike, bingo
May 22nd, 2024 at 10:32 am
Canales performed as a rook OC would. If he were not so upbeat and charismatic, he’d be run out of town on a rail like Flat Brim was.
At least Coen seems to have deeper NFL chops on him.
Time will tell if the team traded a C- for a C+.
May 22nd, 2024 at 10:48 am
Up the middle didn’t work the year before and they did it again last year. If it happens this year I would think TB is the culprit. Leave Coen alone.
May 22nd, 2024 at 11:29 am
Cobraboy Says:
Canales performed as a rook OC would. If he were not so upbeat and charismatic, he’d be run out of town on a rail like Flat Brim was.
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When a new offense is installed it’s not unusual for the team to take most of a season to learn the offense. It took Brady almost the entire season to learn the offense when he arrived here.
The Bucs offense under Canales DID improve by the time they got to the playoffs and we gave the Lions all they could handle in the second round. There was not a chance that any OC would have been run out of town in that situation.
May 22nd, 2024 at 12:57 pm
Predictability says so much, and so last season. Love the yelling to run the ball or do not run the ball. Screaming so much last season to not run the ball and just throw it. Stressful predictability.
May 22nd, 2024 at 1:12 pm
Complexity will require time. For the team to achieve competency in any offense, they’re going to have to execute well, over time. That only comes with repetition.
We’ll likely have a new center who will be learning a new system, while adjusting to the speed of the NFL.
I think that means there will be an install period, which will be basic concepts, then throughout the season our competency will allow for additional complexity.
The good thing is, all of the offenses in the division will be undergoing the same issue. Should be a lot of fun to watch as the Bucs begin to ‘get it’ – looking forward to it!
May 22nd, 2024 at 1:15 pm
Well Canales is in Carolina. We get more experience in Coen. It should be more interesting this year.
Go Bucs!!!!
Joe is Dave Pear El Bucco Realisto??????????
May 22nd, 2024 at 1:15 pm
Fixing the ‘running game’ is going to do wonders for this offense.
Going from 32nd to say 18th in overall running stats would boost this offense (and team) in so many ways….
Probably add 5 or 6 points to the per game average – and turn this team into a legit Super Bowl contender.
May 22nd, 2024 at 1:29 pm
In 2023 the team that ran the most on 1st down was the Bears … 42.55% of the time … followed closely by the Bills (42.36% of the time) then the Ravens (40.55% of their 1st down plays).
The Bucs ranked #30 in the NFL last season in running on 1st down … only 26.59% of their 1st downs. Only the Texans (24.93%) and the Vikings (23.24%) ran less than we did on 1st down. And for the record, the Bucs ran even less on our 1st downs in 2022 … 22.43% of our 1st downs … ranking us #32 in the league in Todd Bowles first year as HC.
Of course all that’s how much we ran on just 1st downs. Bucs did run more last year (41.9% of our offensive plays, ranking us #23 in run attempts) than we did in 2022 (ran on only 33.3% of our plays, ranking us #32 in the NFL). Our problem has been personnel-related (OLine, RBs) and play design/play calling. HOPEFULLY we’re on a solid path to fixing that this year.
May 22nd, 2024 at 1:30 pm
In 2023 the team that ran the most on 1st down was the Bears … 42.55% of the time … followed closely by the Bills (42.36% of the time) then the Ravens (40.55% of their 1st down plays).
The Bucs ranked #30 in the NFL last season in running on 1st down … only 26.59% of their 1st downs. Only the Texans (24.93%) and the Vikings (23.24%) ran less than we did on 1st down. And for the record, the Bucs ran even less on our 1st downs in 2022 … 22.43% of our 1st downs … ranking us #32 in the league in Todd Bowles first year as HC.
May 22nd, 2024 at 1:34 pm
The stats from last season don’t even remotely support the conclusion that ‘With former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, you could be sure the Bucs were going to run up the middle and then feed Mike Evans.’
May 22nd, 2024 at 2:01 pm
DR, I think it might be the utter futility of our rushing attempts that made it seem like we ran more than we actually were. Assuming your figures are accurate and they always are spot on.
May 22nd, 2024 at 2:29 pm
Fred … you’re spot on with ‘I think it might be the utter futility of our rushing attempts that made it seem like we ran more than we actually were.’ We were just a bad running team in 2022 & 2023. When you rank #32 in Rushing Yardage (because we only averaged a dismal 3.4 YPC rushing) you win the Bad Running Team Award every time. And when you’re a bad running team, it really doesn’t matter all that much WHERE you’re running. We pretty much sucked all over the field.
Personally I think it comes down to beasts in the trenches more than anything else. In 2020 & 2021 the trenches were manned with D Smith, Marpet, Jensen, Cappa & Wirfs. There are some beasts in there. Quite a change IMO in 2022 when we lost Marpet, Jensen & Cappa. And oh ya, Fournette & Gronkowski. Takes time to replace players of that caliber.
May 22nd, 2024 at 2:49 pm
You guys, we’ve been bottom of the bunch running the football every season since Dirk Koetter took over. With variety of OL combos and RBs that have come & gone, we might just not have the right mix of continuity and personnel to get out of that hole…until we do. I find it hard to believe our struggles can be attributed to being any 1 thing.
3 OCs in 3 years isn’t going to help BUT we also have alot of talent new & returning to evaluate in order to make sure we have our IOL group sorted out and maybe the added talent in the RB room can be our best shot in a few yrs getting back to being at the least a league average running team.
May 22nd, 2024 at 4:12 pm
Hadn’t thought about Dirk in a long time. Thank you for the reminder, Dude. Fully agree about 3 OCs in only 3 years. 3rd time could be the charm – Coen.
May 22nd, 2024 at 5:21 pm
To piggyback on what White Tiger said, here is what I learned from Tom Brady in 2020. A team has to have a lot of potential to build on. It has to grow incrementally from week to week. It has to peak at playoff time. Sounds simplistic but it is not. There is so much that a championship season involves.
Go Bucs!!!
May 22nd, 2024 at 6:00 pm
@Dude.
I get what you’re putting down, but at the NFL level, if your predictable enough that the defense knows you’re running the football on a very specific down due to the personnel on the field, that means on a run play they can crowd the box which makes any gains you hope to get that much more difficult. If you mean imposing your will on the other team no matter what the play is, this isn’t that Bucs team dude, at least not yet. If the reports are true, last year had to be a bit agonizing for Baker if he’s seeing the def formation not favoring the play that Canales called, then he was forced to run the play anyways because he wasn’t allowed to audible? (I find that story a little hard to believe). Should be refreshing to see how this offense starts, performs, adjusts throughout the season. I find it interesting that when Coen was first hired that reports were that it would be an easy transition from Canales because of the similarities, and yet everything I’m readying, it sounded like Canales wanted to run something like what Coen is going to run, but couldn’t stick to the script.
May 23rd, 2024 at 12:01 am
Canales was determined to run the football in hopes of a balanced offense, he continued to work his philosophy, I don’t discredit him for that. He just didn’t have an adequate offensive line, yes the offensive line was the problem. He was determined to get the running attack moving in a positive direction to achieve the balanced offense he strived for. This of course is all my opinion. I really think Canales envisioned a balanced attack, he certainly did not want to put the offense all on a passing attack, and certainly not with Mayfield.
May 23rd, 2024 at 8:23 am
All the people who complain about Baker not getting serious till the fourth quarter can blame Canales. Daves three yards and a cloud of dust offense failed and then Davy panicked and let Baker take over. Bucs would have won 11 if The defense could have held Bakers miracle comebacks against Atlanta 1 and Houston. The Panthers will be historically bad this year as their shorty sophmore QB does not have Bakers ability to rescue Canales from the Woody Hayes syndrome.
May 23rd, 2024 at 8:40 am
Geno711. I am a veteran have a respectful Memorial day. Your diatribe on the Navy vs Air Force game is both ignorant and disrespectful. The service academies simply can not recruit the huge 300 pounders needed to buy time for a QB or conversely flatten the opposing QB. This is due to height and weight restrictions to fit in a Tank, Submarine, or Jet\helecopter cockpit. The Wishbone is perfect for the service academies as they are smaller, faster, and smarter. They can run a complex wishbone system and make smart decisions on the fly under duress. This is the only way they can compete with Division one state financed schools with the exception of private schools Notre Dame, BC, Stanford, USC and a few more.
May 23rd, 2024 at 12:49 pm
@zoocomics
good stuff man, good read
May 23rd, 2024 at 1:58 pm
A ‘QUALITY’ coach realizes there are times during a game that you need to make adjustments. Fine if you plan on running up the gut but if it is not working perhaps setting up the run with the pass works.
May 23rd, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Rachaad White was not the problem with the bucs running game. With such poor play calling he still had a good season. Not great or really good. Just average.
With better play calling and better line play Chaad will have a breakout year.
Bucky ‘Bucs’ Irving will be a good option as the second back.
May 24th, 2024 at 7:37 pm
Still think Canales was a glorified cheerleader. I’m so, so, so glad we have Coen! I think this season is going to be special.