Projections Suggest A Good Year For The Bucs

May 14th, 2024

Bucs coach Todd Bowles.

Warren Sharp has updated his strength of schedule for NFL teams in the wake of the draft. And if last season is any harbinger of the future, the Bucs could have another good season.

And hey, maybe another division title and a successful race to 10.

Last year Sharp projected the Bucs to have the ninth-easiest strength of schedule. So what did the Bucs do? Win the division for a three-peat.

Now, just based on what happened in 2023, Sharp, the noted handicapper turned statgeek, seems to project the same for the Bucs. Perhaps better as notes on Sharp Football Analysis.

* Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals).

* Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total.

Quick note: Sharp does not go by the previous season’s win-loss records to factor in his projections. He believes that is unwise given how much turnover there is from year to year with rosters.

He currently has the Bucs with the No. 11 easiest schedule.

Now previously, Jeff Kerr of CBS looked at the Bucs schedule and suggested the Bucs getting double-digit wins is not a crazy thought this fall. Judging by Sharp’s projections, Kerr may just be right.

As the sage Middle Eastern philosopher, the Gin of Rummy, Moe Howard, once said, “We shall see.”

The NFL, which uses 2023 win percentages to determine strength of schedule, is much kinder to the Bucs.

 

13 Responses to “Projections Suggest A Good Year For The Bucs”

  1. Bucnation Says:

    Bucs +300 to win the division

  2. Fred McNeil Says:

    I was worried about the Falcons a bit, but they seem to be careening towards a bad season lately. Quarterback controversy ahead for them.

  3. Boss Says:

    this assumes we have a good coach.

    When we are up by three and go into turtle mode and lose the game all bets are off.

    turtle todd until proven otherwise.

    I do not trust his in game decisions, his planning nor adjustments

  4. SB~LV Says:

    They will be a better team barring injuries

  5. Ha-Ha-Ha Says:

    Should have placed Bucs bets when The Atlanta Cousins were everybody’s darling.

  6. JimBobBuc Says:

    Gotta dominate in the division and hopefully pull some upsets against the big boys. The defense looks good with Whitehead back and maybe some upside with Bras and Tykee. If the IOL comes through under Carberry we can have at least an average run game to set up play action for Baker.

  7. D Cone Says:

    When two of the games in 2023 were against a team with a .118 the win rate percentage drops quite a bit. Schedule is a little harder than the numbers show.

    Carolina’s schedule could actually be a little harder because they didn’t get to play themselves twice last season.

    Any way you look at it only 3 Buc wins were against teams that ended up over .500 and they were all 9-8.

    Anyway if the Bucs are going to play one of the 8 games against teams that finished over .500 Week 1 it’s either the Lions or the Saints. Every other better than .500 team is already booked in Premier match Ups.

    Sunday Night Football isn’t announced yet. Can’t see Bucs vs Saints to be a big draw but Bucs @ Lions could be a possibility. Ford Field would be Nuts.

  8. First Name Greatest Says:

    Division will be a 3 team race

    If the Bucs run game and pass defense pass improves they are going to win it

    If Raheem can prove to be a competent head coach and Cousins heals up they can win the division

    If Dennis Allen can be a competent head coach and Carr can improve they can win the division

    Gonna be a fun and interesting year

  9. Rod Munch Says:

    I don’t know about that, just looking at the schedule, that looks like a rough lineup. Clearly, being in the NFC South helps a ton, but I also don’t think the NFC South is going to be the cupcake division its been. I think the Saints will be better, the Falcons will be clearly better, and certainly the Panthers will be better (although still not very good).

    We shall see, I’d love to see the Bucs do well, but my expectations aren’t great – although they are higher than last year at this time, and they way overachieved.

  10. BakerFan Says:

    Time for them to prove the EXPERTS wrong again, that includes the experts on here.

  11. Jake been there since the beginning Says:

    Just hold on, I think the big dawgs are looking alright, and if that happens we’ll be able to pass and run. Online domination!!!

  12. Shane Callahan Says:

    Agree with Jake. If Bucs don’t have the worst offensive line in the league again, it should give them another 3 or 4 wins and a deeper playoff run.

  13. Shane Callahan Says:

    (IOL) Love Wirfs!

 

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