Inside The Peter Schrager Mock Draft
April 17th, 2024
“Ignore that, Ed. He thinks he knows what he doesn’t know, so there’s know way he knows what you and I think we know.”
So why is Peter Schrager’s mock draft different from all other mock drafts? And why should Bucs fans care?
Joe has answers.
First, Schrager states publicly that his mock draft for NFL.com is based on intelligence he’s gathered, in part, by talking directly to NFL decision makers. The NFL Network personality and longtime journalist is known for knowing everyone in the NFL. TheAthletic.com wrote a feature on that last week after following Schrager at the NFL Scouting Combine. Schrager, 41, was painted as a young Ira Kaufman.
Most important in that feature was the explanation that Buccaneers assistant GM Mike Greenberg is Schrager’s “oldest NFL friend.”
That doesn’t mean Greenberg texted Schrager screen shots of the Bucs’ draft board, but Joe expects Greenberg shared some draft intel the Bucs have gathered that has little or nothing to do with the Bucs.
If Schrager gets that’s that kind of scoop from six or seven reliable people, then he’s got quality intel with which to form a mock draft.
Schrager has the Bucs drafting Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton with their No. 26 overall pick. He played tackle in college but is considered a stud center prospect for the NFL. Joe’s written all about him and the history of Buccaneers Ring of Honor general manager Jason Licht valuing the center position dating back to signing Aaron Rodgers’ Super Bowl center to a multiyear deal in 2014.
Very interesting to Joe in the Schrager mock is that he has no team drafting former University of Washington and Indiana University quarterback Michael Penix in Round 1.
Joe knows more than a few people, including colleagues at JoeBucsFan.com world headquarters, that might soil themselves if the Bucs pass on Penix at No. 26.
However, perhaps Schrager’s most telling comments came on The Rich Eisen Show, where he was invited to explain his mock draft in detail. Schrager said he very easily could get intel next week that would lead him to put Penix being taken as a top-12 pick, but as of today, he can’t find a team for Penix in Round 1.
Joe thought that comment from Schrager summed up mock drafts very well. Even with information, the good ones are 90 percent guesswork.
April 17th, 2024 at 8:56 am
Everybody and his brother has a mock draft
April 17th, 2024 at 9:03 am
There are probably 9 or 10 prospects I’d be good with the Bucs drafting, Barton being one of them. The 3 that I wouldn’t care for would be Chop, Kool-Aid, and Penix.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:08 am
With all that intel, Schrager’s mock drafts should be great, but I’m not sure history bears that out? I would be very happy with Barton as he can play G and C. He’s not as big as JPJ, but Barton might be a better pick.
We have two very good receivers now in Evans and Godwin. We need to take advantage of them this year, and I don’t see Bowles/Coen starting Penix over Baker this coming season. Penix also high risk with his injury history, so no way we should pick Penix.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:11 am
This is a deep draft for quarterbacks so a good one could fall to 26. If Penix were there, it would certainly give the Bucs something to think about. He could be a steal. If not for his history of injuries, he’d probably be gone in the first 10 picks. If Penix is there, the Bucs should draft him then use their second round and two third round picks to shore up the offensive line, draft a wide receiver, and a running back (Braelon Allen). I know we need an edge rusher, but we’re likely not getting an impact edge at 26, so let’s roll with what we have and let Bowles scheme up pressure. I also think we’ll see growth in Diaby and Kancey, which should make a difference.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:14 am
If the Bucs draft Barton, he’ll play left guard.
The Bucs are not drafting a QB in the 1st round. I don’t even understand the point in discussing that in every draft article.
I’m also going to guess that Mike Greenberg has very little input on the Bucs draft board. He’s essentially the Bucs lawyer/accountant/capologist. He’s not a player scout.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:21 am
I saw another mock where the Bucs traded down and still took Barton in round 1.
As for Penix he is a quality QB that some team will take a shot at him in the late round 1. A recent playoff teams may take a shot at him that may be lurking and ready to pounce on him.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:25 am
My guess is Penix goes before the Bucs pick.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:33 am
Mock drafts is a one of the most stupid things around football, period.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:35 am
Barton would go to left guard and start immediately I would think, but would cross train at center.
It’s not just Ryan Jensen we never replaced, it’s Ali Marpet too.
I’d love to draft Penix, but the most ideal spot for that is if he starts to slip into the second, and then we trade up. There might enough QBs in this draft and his injury history for that to happen.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:40 am
Yeah remember when Lamar Jackson was a risky Qb to draft and Baltimore traded back up in the bottom of the first round and picked him. How did that work out. Just saying, if a good Qb is staring you in the face pick him and maybe you have a franchise Qb. Worth the risk that low in the first round. Just my opinion.
April 17th, 2024 at 9:47 am
I would be fine with Barton being our pick at #26.
He would be an instant upgrade at LG and could be plugged in for the next decade or so if he stays healthy.
His athletic testing is through the roof – RAS of 9.99 ranks him #3 out of 1,532 offensive lineman tested at the combine since 1987. That is very impressive…
April 17th, 2024 at 10:02 am
There are a lot of routes we can go this year due to the many needs. We could try to hit on both sides of the ball and it could make me happy, or we could go almost all in on OL & RB and I’d be happy as long as the players seem like the right fits.
This is like an offensive focused mock i did based on BPA but we still need to add a pass rusher IMO even if we focus on the offense:
R1 – Jackson Powers Johnson C (barton was gone). I kind of prefer Powers Johnson anyway I just like his vibe
R2 – Adisa Isaac DE
R3 – Chrisian Mahagony OG (top rated player on the site’s board at the pick)
R3 – Audric Estime RB
R4 – Malik Washington WR
RUn game fixed. Wr3 competition fixed. Pass rush depth fixed.
Would need to worry about CB and ILB next draft.
I’m really liking the idea of double dipping on this OL class, and grabbing a RB & WR all in the top 4 rounds tho. That aligns need + value for the most part.
April 17th, 2024 at 10:07 am
Drafting Penix would open a case of cans of worms for the Bucs. It would eliminate any impact of 1st round pick for next year. It could blow up the QB situation. Plus Penix could easily be a bust. Fabulous arm but so did Famous Jamis.
April 17th, 2024 at 10:18 am
Shmoke !
April 17th, 2024 at 10:26 am
Schrager has Verse going to Miami at #21 which IS within range for the Bucs to trade up….. hmmmm
Peter says the Bucs will take Barton at #26 – that (C) Zach Frazier goes to Detroit at#29 and JPJ falls out of the 1st round.
Interesting…..
I do believe Licht is willing to spend 1 of the two 3rd rd picks to trade up for either Latu or Verse if one of them makes it into the 20s under the right circumstances. But if it plays out like Schrager predicts – the Bucs likely won’t trade up for a high end Edge if Barton, JPJ and Frazier are all still on the board in the early 20s.
Licht would be more likely to save the 3rd rounder – draft one of those 3 stud interior OLinemen in the 1st, and then perhaps trade up at some point in the 2nd for Kneeland to take care of the need at Edge (which would be a lot cheaper than trying to trade up in the 1st rd).
I personally would be VERY happy if we get Barton. He may well be the best OLine player in this draft. The next Quenton Nelson perhaps….
April 17th, 2024 at 10:59 am
Jose, if you want Penix in the first round that means you want to replace Mayfield whom you have been drooling over for a year now. Can we stop with wanting all the shiny new toys and stick with what works?
April 17th, 2024 at 11:01 am
If Penix is there at 26, maybe we can trade down a spot or two and pick up an extra third? or fourth? for another corner. What is the going rate for trading down in that scenario? Anyone know?
April 17th, 2024 at 11:02 am
Also, the more Schrager is connected, the more he can get worked. Do you have history on his mock drafts? How well has he performed?
April 17th, 2024 at 11:15 am
Jack Burton Mercer Says:
April 17th, 2024 at 11:01 am
If Penix is there at 26, maybe we can trade down a spot or two and pick up an extra third? or fourth? for another corner. What is the going rate for trading down in that scenario? Anyone know?
^^^^^^^^^^
There is a “draft pick trade value” chart that is somewhat reliable…They say the value goes up if you’re trading up for a QB, the Bucs might’ve gotten more picks when they traded down with Buffalo in the Josh Allen deal, the year they took Vea.
April 17th, 2024 at 11:22 am
Right, Joe, drafting Michael Penix in the first round sounds like a brilliant move, what with his 2 right ACL tears, injuries to both shoulders, and playing in a weak conference! What could go wrong, right?
April 17th, 2024 at 11:28 am
So many mock drafts making me dizzy. I doubt Penix will be waiting long as a pick. Thinking Patriots might take him early on. I really like Penix and he is the hometown kid, but we have other needs first.
April 17th, 2024 at 11:52 am
SO BIZARRE
Recollecting this time each year …
2023. Every mock had CK
2022. Everyone knew the Bucs liked Hall and Goedeke
2021. No one knew anything because of COVID
2020. Every mock had us taking an OT
No two mocks have the Bucs taking the same guy. JPJ, Barton, Kool-Aid, Latu. The Bucs either have tightened the ship (leaks) or they actually don’t know.
April 17th, 2024 at 11:59 am
Im not concerned about Penix and his injury history. There is no better teacher than experience and Im sure he has learned how to move around the pocket better to avoid those injuries.
If Penix is literally the BPA, then you take him.
Je probably wouldn’t play this year which is ideal anyway.
What an insurance policy should Baker regress.
Go watch highlights on Odunze and Polk and his deep ball is phenomenal.
The CHANCE to find a legitimate franchise QB at 26, when you basically just wasted 32 and 33 sounds promising to me.
April 17th, 2024 at 12:04 pm
This pick makes the most sense. I think JPJ will be gone along with the top 3 edgo rushers. With a deep draft, Offensive lineman Graham Barton should be there at #26.
April 17th, 2024 at 12:06 pm
That was quite the sentence there, “zzbucs.” Lol
April 17th, 2024 at 12:37 pm
To the Joe that looks lots of stuff up…Please look up the trade value the Bucs got in the Buffalo/Josh Allen trade-up…Did the Bucs actually get more because the Bills traded up for a QB? 🤔
April 17th, 2024 at 12:43 pm
Whoever is advocating for Penix, when 1) we’ve got 3 core needs elsewhere for a team that’s close 2) we’ve committed to Baker for 3 years who’s proved he’s good with a stable system 3) Penix choked in his biggest game 4) Penix gets hurt (some do, some don’t (Brady, Baker))…is someone who needs to never opine upon football ever again.
April 17th, 2024 at 1:17 pm
Joes, we’ve drafted defensive front for three years in a row. This year is offensive line. We have guys to play receiver and defensive back. We WILL upgrade the offensive line starting with the first round. The Michael Penix talk is way out there. We have Trask as #2 and baker as #1. There’s no chance we take a QB round 1. No chance. It ain’t happening. An upgraded line is what we need and it will improve the whole team.
April 17th, 2024 at 2:04 pm
I could see that. Turner, Verse and Latu are the only R1 edges. Chop and Darius are more R2 types. Kneeland borderline R2. So why not draft a bluechip player regardless of position? Licht has done that before with Devin White
April 17th, 2024 at 3:17 pm
At least an informed take from Peter.
I trust JL.
April 17th, 2024 at 3:33 pm
Everyone who wants to draft Penix at #26 please please join my fantasy football league
April 17th, 2024 at 3:35 pm
You could say the same thing about the actual draft as well, to a certain degree. More like 50% guesswork I’d say lol
April 17th, 2024 at 4:37 pm
And the picks themselves are like rolling the dice.
April 17th, 2024 at 4:50 pm
Would be stupid for Tampa to pick a quarterback in the first round or even this draft period. Trading back would be better if the guys Licht wanted wasn’t there at 26. Ready for the draft to start to quit seeing all these mock drafts
April 17th, 2024 at 4:51 pm
WATCH THE TAPE
Go watch tape of JPJ, Graham, and Van Pran. Just google their names and highlight videos.
If you watched college tape of Goedeke and Mauch, you’ll recognize Sedrick Van Pran is a Licht OL. He destroys dudes!!! Mean mofo that buries dudes into the dirt. SEC guys, too. Goedeke and Mauch tape looked exactly the same. JPJ and Graham are technically sound, but if you want to replace Jensen’s skillset and attitude, it’s SVP.
Round 2: SVP
April 17th, 2024 at 5:26 pm
There is no way we draft Penix. I don’t think he pans out anyhow for whoever drafts him. My guess is that Jayden Daniels is the best QB when we look back on this draft.
For the Bucs it’s an O lineman, edge, or trade back if they can. It wouldn’t surprise me if they me at all if we trade back to the end of the first round or even the top of the second.
April 17th, 2024 at 5:27 pm
I’m not buying the whole premise. If you are known for doing mock drafts no matter what your connections are otherwise – You are especially a person that if I am in the front office I don’t want to have inside information.
It does me no good to let other teams ahead of me in a draft know who I am going to take off the board.
April 17th, 2024 at 5:35 pm
Though it seems more likely that they trade back, I would love for the Bucs to be super aggressive in this draft and trade picks from next year to get who they want this year.
By bringing back ME, LD, and BM those contracts to me say the Bucs view themselves as Super Bowl contenders. Using the logic that almost no players make a significant impact as a rookie the Bucs should be sellers of 2025 picks. This gets guys in let’s them learn this year, ready to make the year two leap and the team poised for a deep run in 25.
If it’s all a failure then MEs contract is up and they can get out of BMs contract too.
April 17th, 2024 at 5:41 pm
My Mock Draft…The Bucs will pick some players and pay them a fortune. A few will work out.
April 17th, 2024 at 5:47 pm
No matter who they pick they will achieve mediocracy. 50/50. That is the goal. 8-9 or 9-8. Maybe even 10 wins. Parity. How exciting.
April 17th, 2024 at 5:59 pm
Sly, Highlights are not “the tape.” Van Pran is not a mauler. Van Pran is under sized. He’s like 6’4″ and under 300. I’m not saying that he’s a bad prospect but destroying dudes is a stretch. If you want to see what a player really is for a full game watch the 22’s. Most centers don’t go 1-1 with nose tackles. If you want to see someone destroy people, watch Frasier vs Oregon State.
April 17th, 2024 at 6:03 pm
If the Bucs draft Barton would that mean that Hainsey would remain our center? Or might we still draft for a center with a later pick?
April 17th, 2024 at 8:02 pm
“including colleagues at JoeBucsFan.com world headquarters, that might soil themselves if the Bucs pass on Penix at No. 26.”
No worries Joe’s, You could just comfort them colleagues and yourself with those good memories of a former Florida State QB’s Game, after a shower of course…