BSPN: Take The Bucs-Over
April 3rd, 2024
Wiseguys weigh in.
Hey, it isn’t just dudes who work for FOX, NBC, CBS or the four-letter who just aren’t impressed by the Bucs, no matter how much suits at One Buc Palace stomp their feet.
BetMGM came out with their season-win totals for all NFL teams. The Bucs, who have been in the playoffs for four straight seasons, have a season win-total betting line of 7.5.
Yes, that would be a losing record despite the Bucs pretty much bringing back their entire roster from a nine-win season and advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs.
But BSPN sort of thinks the Bucs will be better than that, barely. Mike Clay, a spreadsheeter, has the Bucs pegged at 7.7 wins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5)
Mike Clay’s projection: 7.7 wins (NFL rank: 22)
Super Bowl winner +6000• Tampa Bay has gone over its win total in four of last five seasons.
• The Buccaneers are seeking back-to-back winning seasons for the second time in last 15 seasons (accomplished in 2020-21 with Tom Brady).
So let Joe get this straight, despite what our friends in the desert believe, the Bucs have gone “over” in four of the past five seasons. You’d think someone would wise up, eh?
And how damning is that stat about the Lost Decade. Only once in the past 15 years have the Bucs had back-to-back winning seasons? That is beyond disgraceful.
Hopefully, the Lost Decade is never revisited. At least as long as Joe still draws a breath.
April 3rd, 2024 at 4:11 am
This team has a winning pedigree now, regardless of whether the outsiders see it. It will take a couple more years of great drafts to see constant 10 win seasons perhaps, but we can see it now. It’s quite possible this next season turns some heads. Especially if year 2 rookies turn great and we nail the draft with 1st year ballers.
Saw a new mock by Edholm that has us trading back with Washington in the 1st round. I love this idea, because it gives you the 2nd pick in round 2 so you can think about it all night and agree. Plus the additional pick should be a high one.
Makes me furious to know they were in a similar position and came away with Logan Hall. Someone really had to talk the masses into that one.
April 3rd, 2024 at 4:21 am
It all depends what Jason does in the draft and free agency. Bucs need to get bigger and stronger on both sides of the line. No more undersized players from small schools that need time to develop. Simple really.
April 3rd, 2024 at 5:31 am
Joe … ‘The Bucs, who have been in the playoffs for four straight seasons, have won the NFC South the past three seasons and have a Super Bowl win mixed in, have a win-total of 7.5’.
Look at it positively Joe, we’ve come UP in the world. Wasn’t last year’s win-total only 6.5? That’s a whole win better, and against a tougher schedule to boot. And since we produced 9 regular season wins in 2023, 1 win better will get us to 10 wins. I’ll take that for the time being.
I’ve decided that it’s not really the Bucs who are being ‘undervalued’; it’s Todd Bowles & this coaching staff. The odds-makers look at his HC record and simply project 1 more year at the mean. Todd had 32 wins in 5 seasons prior to 2023 (6.5 wins per season average). He now has 41 regular season wins in 6 seasons as a HC (averages out to 7 wins per season … plus they probably threw in a half a win because of last year’s playoff victory).
See, it tracks. Odds-makers were wrong last year & they’ll be wrong again this year. They’re falling for Todd’s poker-face on TV just like the media does. Used to be a detective on TV years ago named Columbo who’d do the same thing; lull you to sleep with his faux-naiveté then nail your butt to the floor. That’s TB.
April 3rd, 2024 at 5:43 am
The reason the Bucs are doing better… CONSISTENCY!!! Even if it’s only a half coach, Todd Bowels has been Bucs HC and/or DC for 5 years now. Look at every successful NFL team, their head coach has been there for some time! Pittsburgh, history of low turnover at HC, Green Bay, more history, NE, KC… Teams that do not pull the plug on the head coach and go through new Head Coach every couple years.
LOST DECADE? Decade (plus) of changing coaches every few years, each coach a play on the previous one! 09-11 Raheem morris which led to Greg Sciano (2012-2013) as disciplinarian, opposite of Morris, which led to Lovie Smith (2014-15) which represented a ‘go back to our roots’ move, followed by Dirk Koetter (2016-18) hired so as not to change OC on young Jameis Winston!….coach after coach after coach…
April 3rd, 2024 at 6:11 am
Boo to BSPN. Who are they anyways… Hope they eat their words this season.
Agree with nicholas on the lost decade too. So many changes and mishaps. Can never forget Schiano and the entire Josh Freeman fiasco either. The revolving door of coaches. Plus, at a different time, I didn’t like the way they fired Tony Dungy. Yes, enter Jon Gruden after and a super bowl win. But things could have been handled much differently. And then Jon Gruden was gone too. But then again, look at the previous ownership before the Glazers… We are looking so much stronger now. Go Bucs.
April 3rd, 2024 at 7:43 am
Hmm.. What if it said eight wins? Would that seem far from the realistic? It’s only .03 away from 8 wins And our “division” IS tougher than last year.
Versus our “schedule” this year that number might not be far off the mark because it’s also tougher. Have we truly gotten stronger? Sure with the addition of Whitehead but is that enough to put our stamp on it and claim that it’s a “done deal”? Guaranteed we’ll win the division now AND we’ll get 10 plus wins easily this year? Our defense has lost A bunch of what was considered top shelf weapons. Our best corner, our best run defender are now gone. Those are real losses. Let’s hope McCollum can be the new #1 but who is going to be our new number 1 run defender? Unknowns
In fact the only place that may have a chance is rookies with a year under their belts assumed to get stronger and continuity between last years members. Hopefully that’s enough because rookies take time to develop and you just can’t count on them to make a big difference in year one.
Let’s hope Jason has something MORE up his sleeve that CAN turn the tide and it’s about to be revealed. Because if not….. Why are we “expecting” to be the darlings when technically we’re weaker than last year up against a tougher division AND a Far tougher schedule???
As it stands I’m trying to figure out just why we should be picketing in the streets claiming disrespect from Vegas!
April 3rd, 2024 at 7:51 am
I can definitely see a season as low as 7 wins this season if the Bucs don’t get a serious upgrade at Center and their pass rush. You can’t count on the team being as relatively free of injuries as they were last season, either. Seems like the line is right this year (I knew it was too low last season due to the Bucs’ easy schedule).
April 3rd, 2024 at 8:02 am
Bowels is still the head coach! That is the reason for those projections.
April 3rd, 2024 at 8:31 am
I have 2 units on the over. GO BUCS
April 3rd, 2024 at 8:36 am
nicholas houllis – it really cannot be said any better. I appreciate the ownership and GM Licht’s commitment to stability and we need to build on that. If this coach is as bad as many Buc fans claim, no amount of stability would matter. I think the evidence in the last part of the year, and more importantly the backing by the front office, is proof positive that the old adage is correct: If you listen to the fans, you’ll be sitting with the fans.
April 3rd, 2024 at 8:43 am
7.7 wins, how the heck does that even compute….. what do you have a season of tie ball games.
April 3rd, 2024 at 9:16 am
Until Todd Bowles demonstrates he is a winner, it will be like this. He’s got losing head coaching records with two teams. Weak division. No pass rush has to use exotic blitzes that are often telegraphed, poor pass defense and a secondary who bust their assignments like cheap dinner plates.
His teams start slow on both sides of the ball and are too often flat for a Big Game.
This is his prove it year. Prove you can correct your teams’ chronic deficiencies and win 10 games. Then maybe the narrative starts to change.
So far, his head coaching performance does not warrant more.
April 3rd, 2024 at 9:37 am
Hey Joe, how about a poll of the local Pen and Mic club for number of wins?
As a fan, I think an 11 win season is doable. Everyone needs to redo our picks after the draft again.
April 3rd, 2024 at 11:59 am
Six teams that made the Playoffs in 2022 didn’t make the 2023 cut.
Vikings, Giants, Seahawks, Chargers, Bengals, and Jags.
Anywhere from 4 to 8 teams every year don’t make it back. With just 4 of 14 teams not making it there’s a 28% chance to fail right off the bat. If 8 teams don’t get back you have better chances flipping a coin. Teams like the Patriots (w/ Brady) and Chiefs stood a better chance because of a lot of years of Crappy teams in their Division. Bucs benefited from a Crappy Division the last couple seasons once Brees was gone.
Vegas doesn’t mind paying off on an Over/Under as long as the Joe that placed that bet put the same amount of Cash down on the Bucs at 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl.
Comes down to simply a matter of time before the Luck runs out on Playoff Runs.
Bucs have 6 games against 2023 Playoff Teams and play 9 other teams that could be the 4-8 of new 2024 Playoff Teams. Maybe not Carolina or the Giants but you certainly can’t count them out.
Definitely not going to be a Cakewalk to a 3rd Division Title or Wild Card no matter how good the team plays.
April 3rd, 2024 at 2:25 pm
Let’s look at it backwards. Does anybody think this team will lose 10 games?
April 3rd, 2024 at 2:44 pm
Bucs have a a good group of young players with a year of experience now . I have full confidence in Yaya having 12-14 sacks this season . If the Bucs get a top 15 running game lookout. They could be a dangerous offense . A lot of people forget the Bucs were top 10 in sacks last year be it however by committee. What Baker did last year in a brand new offense with a historically bad running game is nothing short of spectacular. This team gets 150 ypg rushing and very likely are a top 5 offense. Control the clock and it helps tremendously on defense. Gotta go for a premier interior O-lineman in the draft because it will help on both sides of the ball .
As always Go Bucs .
April 3rd, 2024 at 7:19 pm
@joe did you take that bet in the beginning of last season I know I did and 7.5 I’m def choosing the over again
April 3rd, 2024 at 9:13 pm
Yes. 🙂
And when Joe next gets to Vegas, guaranteed over for 2024!