Bucs’ Postseason Probability Climbs To 27 Percent

December 4th, 2023

Things continue to break the Bucs’ way in their hunt for the playoffs.

Yesterday, it was the slimy Saints falling to the Lions after the Seahawks were clubbed by the Cowboys on Thursday night.

Per the New York Times postseason probability calculator, the Bucs’ postseason chances climbed to 27 percent after yesterday’s win against the Panthers, and that’s as a Wild Card in the bumbling NFC.

The Rams, Vikings, Packers and Seahawks are tied with 6-6 records for the final two Wild Card berths in the NFC. The Falcons lead the NFC South at 6-6, and the Bucs are a game behind all of them at 5-7. However, the Bucs have a win against the Vikings and a very strong conference record, a key tiebreaker.

In the NFC South, the Bucs have a 22 percent probability of winning the division, per the playoff calculator, better than the Saints’ 17 percent shot.

Lose in Atlanta on Sunday and the Bucs might as well kiss their playoff chances goodbye. A loss would put them two games behind Atlanta in the division race with four games to play, and the Falcons would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. A Bucs loss also would nearly crush their Wild Card hopes, likely dropping their postseason probability into the single digits.

25 Responses to “Bucs’ Postseason Probability Climbs To 27 Percent”

  1. MerryPlankster777 Says:

    “Never tell me the odds.” – It is SoLo

    Tell me odds of new coach next fall and I will suffer the off-season hibernation sickness gladly!

  2. Dreambig Says:

    The way they are playing, does making the playoffs even matter? Watching the Bucs offense in the first half was like dejavu of watching Florida States offense on Saturday. Take away Mike’s glorious touchdown and it was pretty much the same. I have slightly more confidence in Mayfield/Canales to convert 3rd and 8 than Florida States 3rd string freshman QB. If the Bucs can turn things around and go on a run and look strong, then the playoffs matter. If we just get in because our entire division sucks then who cares.

  3. realistic-optimistic Says:

    Good thing we have a “pillowy soft” schedule!

  4. SB~LV Says:

    Barely beat a team with one win this season
    Jingle Bells

  5. WiscoJoe Says:

    Please lose in ATL on Sunday. Whoever wins the the South won’t fire their head coach and will be stuck in football purgatory for years to come. Best thing for the franchise is to lose.

  6. Mostly Peaceful Trask Fan Says:

    Here we go lol.

    Think Bucs will be at ATL?

    Anyone see the pack wallop the Chiefs?


    Trask got jobbed by this coaching staff’s incompetence. Mayfield should never have been the starter.

  7. realistic-optimistic Says:

    If the Bucs lose this upcoming game they’ll be 2 games back. Plus ATL will have the season sweep. Then can we finally put this playoff chatter to bed?


  8. Wild Bill Says:

    Reality bites hard. If there was any doubt that the Bucs, including the coaches (especially the coaches) are rightly and clearly right at the NFL bottom, the performance this Sunday against a one win team removes all doubt. The only issues to be debated is which is the worst: the coaches or the players. Personally I believe this team has the record they deserve. There are a modest number of elite players. With competent coaching the Bucs are good enough to be middle of the pack. With the coaching staff they have, their record is an accurate measure. The team owners need to clean house after this season ends. Fire the whole staff and make a clean start next season with a totally new coaching staff. And of course upgrade the player lineup through the draft and free agents. There are no easy options. But more of the same has to be demolished and replaced.

  9. Dlavid Says:

    I will be rooting against my beloved Bucs this coming Sunday ! Hard medicine to swallow ….. but this coach has to go along with some players !

  10. Craig Says:

    I would have called 27% as the probability of winning another game. Nobody other than the Panthers are going to hang around and wait for one of those anomalous flashes of offense.

  11. zzbuc Says:

    On of the most dumbest stat ever!!!!

  12. Sly Pirate Says:

    Bowles teams are never prepared and rarely come out swinging in games that matter. They’ve lost every game that has mattered this year.

  13. HC Grover Says:

    Thanks I needed a good laugh.

  14. Since76 Says:

    The bucs almost lost to the worst team in the league. People are talking playoffs???? I really don’t know if they will win another game. Aside from Evans they looked really bad. Glad to see that Mayfield could finally throw a catchable ball. This team needs a total rebuild.

  15. D Cone Says:

    Upside is Al the 6-6 teams in Wild Card Spots have tough schedules.
    Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings all have a much tougher schedule that looks like at least two losses each.

    Packers have the easiest schedule after the Saints and Falcons so 26% today is a hopeful position.

    Looks to me like it’s more lof a 1 in3 shot. Bucs, Falcons,or Saints could suck their way into the number 7 spot.

    Be a shame if Jameis sticks it in the Bucs.

  16. Canabuc Says:

    This was definitely a truly embarrassing performance by the team as a whole. Sure, we had injuries at the linebacker position, but they ran at Will against us.

    I also thought that hiring Dave Canales was going to leave to an offence that had elements of the coaching tree from the Rams and Seahawks, and would be very innovative. However, much of the playcalling looked very similar to Byron Le which last year which was run the ball into a wall on first and second down and then looked to throw it at Mike Evans, whether he was open or not on third down.

    We got lucky that this worked on a couple of occasions, and we beat the worst team in the NFL. However, this is not a recipe for sustain success. This offence needs to be more creative with the players that it does have.

    I would love us to make the playoffs, however as others have said, if that leads to keeping Baker Mayfield, who is not our answer at quarterback and Todd Boles, who does not have the skill set to be a good head coach in this league that I am all for losing next week to the Falcons. Perhaps that will lead to a coaching change and a chance for an evaluation for the rest of the season of Kyle Trask to see if we need to draft our quarterback of the future.

  17. WyomingJoe Says:

    Congratulations Baker for driving your Haters crazy. Just keep winning. Btw, Baker had three passes dropped. Oh, and Joe, weather absolutely affects the passing game. I know you don’t think so, but just look how the rain affected several of the games. Don’t believe that you don’t clearly understand that.

  18. WyomingJoe Says:

    Canabuc: Trask has been evaluated by the Bucs organization already. Why do you think he’s sitting on the bench and why do you think he was the 3rd string QB the past two years? Nothing against him but Baker is better.

  19. WillieG Says:

    The fact that the Bucs can have a major impact on their destiny with a win against the Falcons, tells me they will lose to the Falcons. They always say “screw you” when the football gods give them a nice gift or two.

  20. Dwayne Cone Says:

    WyomingJoe Says:
    December 4th, 2023 at 12:00 pm
    Canabuc: Trask has been evaluated by the Bucs organization already. Why do you think he’s sitting on the bench and why do you think he was the 3rd string QB the past two years?

    And Baker was burning up the league the last two seasons previous. So much that he had to discount himself just to stay relevant.

    Plenty of girls walking the strip with the same mindset. Think that they are worth a hundred but settle for 5 bucks just to have some action.
    Comparison doesn’t stop there. They both blow.

  21. 74 Bucs Fan Says:

    WyomingJoe said – just keep winning Baker.

    LOL! Thanks – needed that laugh!

    Baker is a crap QB, and your backing him is hilarious!

  22. Bucsmarley Says:

    Wyoming is bakers wife. She loves living in Florida and isn’t ready to move again

  23. mark2001 Says:

    All they have to do is beat Green Bay late in December at Lambeau. Should be no problem… right?

  24. garro Says:

    Oh Boy!

    Stat geeks rejoice! That makes it about 25 percent more than my patented eyeball playoff enhancer.

    Go Bucs!

  25. Canabuc Says:


    The one thing the coaching staff hasn’t really seen is Kyle Trask the starter with all of the number ones in an NFL regular season game. He has had 2 1/2 seasons to learn from the bench and there are some people who are just much better when the lights are on and they’re on the field than they are in practice. At this point we don’t have much to lose as we have only a 29% chance of making the playoffs, and that pretty much drops to nothing should we lose next week. If we do lose next week 100% Kyle Trask should be the starter rest of the season and see what we have in him before we have to make some hard decisions in the draft.