A Job Security Game
November 26th, 2023
Few NFL head coaches would feel secure in their job with seven losses when the calendar moves from November to December.
Certainly not Todd Bowles.
After a 2-0 start to this season, the Bucs sit at 4-6 as they await today’s 1 o’clock kickoff in Indianapolis. Going 4-6 is unacceptable in a sad division when your superstars largely have been healthy and your quarterback has played solid football without missing a snap. Going 4-7 would be beyond unacceptable.
The Bucs opened 2-0 last year, too, before limping their way to an 8-9 finish and an ugly end to the Tom Brady era at home in the playoffs.
Joe is not elightening anyone by noting Bowles’ hot seat. But Joe does firmly believe today’s game is critical to Bowles’ future.
Lose today and assistant coaches start thinking about where they might be coaching next season, sniffing around for new potential jobs and making sure to buy holiday gifts for old friends that might be able to help them.
Lose today and some players will start wondering why they should believe the Bucs have winning leadership. Perhaps that’s unprofessional, but players are human and savvy to the ways of the NFL.
Lose today and Team Glazer is jump-started to craft a plan for regime change. That doesn’t mean firing Bowles; that means preparing for a coaching change if they feel one is required. And who could blame them?
Joe firmly believes the Bucs can win this afternoon. They’ve got the better quarterback and more impact players than the Colts. And Joe believes the Bucs can take out Carolina next Sunday in Tampa.
But if the Bucs can’t score back-to-back wins and a 6-6 record, then Joe will join what might seem like everyone else in preparing for a coaching change.
Go Bucs!
Flash poll posted at 3:57 a.m. Poll closed at 8:20 a.m.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:01 am
4 and 10would be his average record
November 26th, 2023 at 5:31 am
I don’t see us winning in G.B., or beating J Ville. All the other games we should win. If we don’t starting today, I see no way Bowles comes back, and Licht might not make it either. This thing will either hold together, or if not, a complete rebuild, with new leadership is in order.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:48 am
Agree they have to get to 6-6 or the Glazers call Harbaugh.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:54 am
As much as I hate to see the team lose games we could and should win, especially when we’re not in line for a really high draft pick, the best thing that could happen for this team’s future is for bowles to get fired. And if losing today, and any other day this season is what it takes to get there, so be it. Worst case scenario is we limp to a winning record or wildcard playoff game (of course get smoked, likely by the boys again) and somehow the Glazers give bowles another season (& draft pick, probably a QB) to ruin. How many seasons can we afford to waste on this guy? The Pats are pushing one of the most successful coaches in NFL history (with 6 rings!!!) out the door after 3 losing seasons! What happened to this being a “what have you done for me lately” league? Let’s see, last season as a DC: ruined our chance at back to back chips with a CRIMINALLY bad game plan. First season as HC: Brady first losing record, first loss to the Falcons, biggest dropoff in points scored, stubbornness on full display, embarrassing wildcard defeat. Second season as HC: players regressing all over the team, bad personnel choices everywhere you look, second season of historically bad run game, embarrassing records being set against/ by us left and right. GET THIS BUM OUTTA HERE!!! I don’t see ONE redeeming HC quality this guys has. He’s gotta go. So if we lose to the colts, a team we shouldn’t even have to worry about beating 🤷♂️. I didn’t want this, apparently the Glazers did.
#FIREbowlesNOW
November 26th, 2023 at 6:03 am
Fansince76: yeah if the Bucs are 4-8 after losing to Carolina and the Colts or even split with them in the next 2 weeks to go 5-7 (and if it has not already happened after the ATL loss), then the Glazers probably start putting feelers out to potential HC candidates’ agents.
However, Harbaugh may also want to have a lot of say on player personnel which could mean Licht is demoted to figurehead or fired if Harbaugh wants that level of control. Plus, Harbaugh probably will be wanted by several other clubs, some which probably will be more appealing than the Bucs but yeah I agree, if the Bucs are not 6-6 after next Sunday’s 4:00 matchup we can assume Bowels is flushed.
November 26th, 2023 at 6:18 am
I remember 21: yeah, as a fan since ’76 I can tell you that the Bucs have a knack of winning just enough games to miss on the premiere top shelf generational players of any given draft. A short list of bad Buc teams which won late to hurt then in the draft: 1989 (beat the lions to just miss Derrick Thomas, Deion and Barry Sanders), Bucs got Broderick Thomas., 2007: Bucs beat the Browns late, missing out on Megatron and Joe Thomas but got Gaines Adams, 2018: Jameis beats the Saints on a Hail Mary at RayJay, cool but it slid them from 4 or 5 in the draft to 7: this cost them Quenton Nelson but they did trade down to land Vea, Carlton Davis and some bust named MJ Stewart.
Given Bowels desire not to be fired and the likelihood the Bucs are not tanking like Lovie did for Jameis, Bowels will win just enough to jam the Bucs out of the chance to get a franchise QB or another plug and play option. Even the difference between slot 7 to 9 and 15 to 19 (if the Bucs win the division at 8-9 and get boat raced by Dallas again in the wildcard), it will cost them the chance to trade up unless they want to idiotically mortgage the future to move up. I want the Bucs to win but perhaps losing and getting Bowles fired might be the best strategy and perhaps the Glazers are doing that, letting the man run the ship aground…..
November 26th, 2023 at 6:44 am
Jason Licht is not going to hire someone that wants total control. That will eliminate most of the top candidates
November 26th, 2023 at 6:54 am
Bowles doesn’t act like a coach on the hot seat. So, either he is tremendously naive or he knows he’s not going anywhere. I fear it’s the latter.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:05 am
Do not underestimate the Colts. They play hard every game and have very good coaching staff. Minshew should be a starter somewhere in this league. Not a guaranteed win today. Remember the Alamo. Could be a rerun of the Houston debacle.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:18 am
You are right Jason Licht is not going to hire Harbaugh-THE GLAZERS WILL and THE GLAZERS WILL TELL HARBAUGH TO DRAFT WHOEVER HE WANTS and not to worry about the GM , because MIKE GREENBERG is totally on board.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:22 am
Players should know that their poor play is going to get all their coaches fired……
November 26th, 2023 at 7:47 am
Almost, almost makes me want to root for the Colts. I’m sorry, even if we make the playoffs, in my opinion, bowels has demonstrated he’s in over his head as a head coach. There’s just nothing inspiring about him. Marginal, at best.
November 26th, 2023 at 7:49 am
The talent is capable of 8-9, mebbe 9-8. Anything less is reflective of the coach
November 26th, 2023 at 8:14 am
The Glazer family fired Tony Dungy & Gruden so canning Bowles should be a ‘no brainer’.
November 26th, 2023 at 8:38 am
Do the players want these coaches. FYI, Bucs went 8-9 last season because Bowles gave away Atlanta. Do Bucs Fans really want this guy leading the ship next season? As for coaches searching for jobs, isn’t that why Bucs didn’t go back to back SB’s because leftnut & Blows were job searching and BA gave them his blessing?
November 26th, 2023 at 8:39 am
Bucs are going 7-0 from this point so we’ll probably end up with Bowles.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:03 am
I’m hoping for 5 and 6!! First things first!!!
November 26th, 2023 at 9:07 am
This worries me too. Given the continued cap issues next year, it wouldn’t surprise me. Keeping him would be bad enough, but if he stays, and the Bucs draft a QB, that would be a terrible blow to this organization. I don’t want Bowles anywhere near the scouting/drafting/developing of a new QB. That’s a recipe for disaster and would set this franchise back multiple years.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:18 am
IMO…Bowles job security relies on making the playoffs….if he doesn’t accomplish that, he’s done. Dungy got fired making the playoffs, I don’t see much patience for Bowles. His defense has looked incapable despite a ton of resources being dedicated to building it his way. I think management has already looked into replacements…that process has started.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:20 am
“Going 4-6 is unacceptable in a sad division when your superstars largely have been healthy and your quarterback has played solid football without missing a snap.”
Baker Mayfield has been playing solid football?? Throwing two touchdowns a game is solid football now? Have Bucs fans standards sank so low since we had a super bowl winning, top 5 scoring offense that they think throwing 1 or 2 touchdowns a game is solid? Baker Mayfield is average at best and the only thing solid about him is not turning the ball over. A solid quarterback throws 3 or 4 touchdowns a game btw and for darn sure can drive the ball 80 yards down field when there’s less than two minutes left to win a game or at least score some more points before half.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:26 am
Seeing how you can trade coaches maybe Licht can trade Bowles & Canales for a 7-11 Big Gulp and a dozen Krispy Kreme donuts.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:39 am
Just doing the math. Jack Clark.
3 to 4 passing TDs a game would be 51 to 68 Tds in a season. Brady averaged 36 a season. Less last year without Gronk.
I do not want to settle for Baker next year but clearly he has been solid for us this year. On offense, it is our running game both offensive lineman and running backs that have disappointed.
If you want to point to offensive stats, you can ignore our last two seasons doing those things.
November 26th, 2023 at 9:48 am
Ive always thought Jason Licht was a good GM. But hiring Bowles was an awful decision right from the start. Hiring him knowing that he wanted to completely change the philosophy of the team that had just won a Super Bowl is beyond absurd and if Licht knew about this and signed off anyways, then I agree he has to go to.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:01 am
I think Hot Toddie will make it to the end of the season. It is not because there is any faith in him, it is because the available coaches aren’t coming out of the woodwork around here.
We’re stuck with this, and next season might be even worse because we are going to be deeper into QB hell and our experienced player are going to bail.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:20 am
“Couch Fan Says:
November 26th, 2023 at 9:48 am
Ive always thought Jason Licht was a good GM. But hiring Bowles was an awful decision right from the start. Hiring him knowing that he wanted to completely change the philosophy of the team that had just won a Super Bowl is beyond absurd and if Licht knew about this and signed off anyways, then I agree he has to go to.”
I don’t think he had much of a choice. Pretty sure there was a Glazer approved handshake agreement when Arians was hired that the reigns were to be handed off to one of his incompetent toadies (Bowles or Leftwich) when he retired. Arians made sure it would happen they way he wanted it to by resigning as late as he did. They were all but forced to hire Bowles or Leftwich.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:29 am
Gruden finished 9-7 and 9-7 his last 2 years and was fired.
Why would they keep Bowles after two sub .500 finishes?
What’s the difference?
Bowles is already gone.
The list of replacements already being developed. Harbaugh will be the most sought after HC this offseason. Does he like the sun?
November 26th, 2023 at 10:31 am
geno@ Tom Brady had a passer rating of 102.1 with 5,316 yards, 43 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 17 games in 2021. That’s 2.5 TD’s per game. Not sure what you’re looking at. The team averaged 30.5 pts per game. In 2022 Brady faced even a worse rushing attack than Baker is, the running game was last in the league. Tough to score points when you can’t run the ball at all. In both cases the D has not been consistent in 2022 & 2021. I blame the entire O problem on Bowles forcing the run to slow down the game philosophy not the OC’s they are simply following directions.
November 26th, 2023 at 10:55 am
Licht’s record as Buc’s GM for the past 10 years is 70-86. Only 3 of those years did the team have a winning record (2 with Arians as HC and GOAT as QB). And Brady’s only losing season was his last, with Licht as GM and Bowles as HC. Among Licht’s draft busts are: Jameis Winston and Donovan Smith 1-2 in 2015, Hargreaves and Spence 1-2 in 2016, OJ Howard in 2017, Devin White in 2019, JTS in 2021, and Logan Hall in 2022. Quite a few players that did turn out OK left in FAcy. Bowles coaching record is that of taking over decent teams and running them into the ground. There is little to indicate Licht can rebuild the team through drafted talent, or that Bowles can coach it to a winning record. A real house-cleaning is needed.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:02 am
The writing is on the wall that Bowels is NOT the future for the Bucs…
This season or next, he gone!….
So why prolong the inevitable….
Excite the fan base by FIRING and removing the dead weight!…
November 26th, 2023 at 11:07 am
geno711 Says:
November 26th, 2023 at 9:39 am
Just doing the math. Jack Clark. 3 to 4 passing TDs a game would be 51 to 68 Tds in a season. Brady averaged 36 a season. Less last year without Gronk.
I do not want to settle for Baker next year but clearly he has been solid for us this year. On offense, it is our running game both offensive lineman and running backs that have disappointed. If you want to point to offensive stats, you can ignore our last two seasons doing those things.
^^^^
Of course every quarterback will have a few bad games a season where they throw less than 3 touchdowns which will bring down their average. For example, Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL and he didn’t throw any touchdowns against the Broncos in week 8 but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a solid quarterback. It’s normal to see Patrick Mahomes–and other solid quarterbacks–throw 3 touchdowns a game and march their team 80 years down the field with 2 minutes left to win the game or score some more points before half because he does it often. However, it’s very rare if not non-existent for Baker Mayfield to throw 3 or 4 touchdowns in a game or lead a comeback victory with less than 2 minutes left to go in a game because he is not a solid quarterback. Baker Mayfield is average at best. Solid quarterbacks are the top 1-10 ranked quarterbacks, average quarterbacks are ranked 10-20, below average quarterbacks are ranked 20-30, and sorry as quarterbacks are ranked 30-32.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:26 am
Jack though I agree with the 2 minute drill scenario in Mahomes case 13 seconds is too long, ask Shaun McDermott and Josh Allen. But very few average 2 td’s per game. Top 1-2 maybe but not top 10.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:39 am
Power of Pewter
You summed it up accurately
November 26th, 2023 at 11:59 am
We need a really good long term HC wit good staff. He will rebuild the Bowles shambles mess in a couple years.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:14 pm
I believe Jim Harbaugh will be heading to Las Vegas to coach and GM the Raiders.
Tom Brady (Michigan connection) will be assisting the pumpkin pie hair cutted freak (Mark Davis) with this decision…
The Bucs will be looking for the best offensive coordinator available to replace Todd Bowles.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:19 pm
Regardless of outcome, it would be negligent for Team Glazer to not have begun a new coaching search. If Bowles has won the first two games of both his seasons here, what does that tell you about the rest of his record? This team is 80 million dollars in cap money, and some of us fans STILL feel this team was talented enough to win against ATL and Houston. From the first day Bowles took over and had his first Jenna Lame question, it was a Bowles and his Team vs. the world mentalitity. and I feel he included the fans in that category. I hear he is a great guy with an interesting humor, but all we get is a wooden jackass that is a serial contrarian. I continue to suffer through watching these games in the hopes that this Bozo moves on sooner than later.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:38 pm
For all the Licht Haters out there- how many GMS have more super bowl wins than Licht does in his tenure with the Bucs? Is John Lynch one of them? Thought so.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:43 pm
Absurd you guys doubling down on the 3 to 4 passing TDs a game scenario.
We run fewer plays then the guys passing for 3 or 4 TDs a game.
They have better offensive lines, they have better running games, they have better play callers.
Joe is correct. Baker has been solid with what he has been given this year.
I do not want him back next year.
Put blame where it lies this year. Not on Baker.
November 26th, 2023 at 12:52 pm
If this is Todd’s make it or get fired game I expect a Colts blow out and lots of excuses… our shoes were untied, I had the sun in my eyes, we didn’t execute, we had a great week of practice type stuff from Todd.
November 26th, 2023 at 1:08 pm
NE Fan Says:
November 26th, 2023 at 11:26 am
Jack though I agree with the 2 minute drill scenario in Mahomes case 13 seconds is too long, ask Shaun McDermott and Josh Allen. But very few average 2 td’s per game. Top 1-2 maybe but not top 10.
^^^^^
😂 Patrick Mahomes is a legendary quarterback. Anytime left on the clock is too long for legendary quarterbacks. We are talking about solid quarterbacks, not elite quarterbacks. And every quarterback in the top 10 has scored more touchdowns than Baker Mayfield so far this year and Mayfield is averaging about 2 touchdowns a game. So that’s way more than just 1 or 2 quarterbacks being able to score 2 td’s a game. Baker Mayfield is currently ranked 13th best QB in the NFL (he was 14th best last week) btw which puts him in the average at best category.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:09 pm
Jackie boy you’re confusing me, Baker averages 1.5 TD’s per game so far this season. Anyone who believes Baker is above average needs to go back to math class.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:57 pm
Bowles should be fired today, not at the end of the season. That was fugly. Evans was great, Otton was really good, mayfield did everything he could do……Bowles looked lost. Maybe next year he could coach a pickleball team or something. Just an amazing loss.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:00 pm
NE Fan Says:
November 26th, 2023 at 3:09 pm
Jackie boy you’re confusing me, Baker averages 1.5 TD’s per game so far this season. Anyone who believes Baker is above average needs to go back to math class.
^^^^
Didn’t you say “very few quarterbacks average 2 td’s per game. Top 1-2 maybe but not top 10.”? Well let me tell you boy, more than 2 of the Top 10 quarterbacks are averaging 2 TD’s per game so far this season. So I didn’t confuse you, you were just wrong 😂
November 26th, 2023 at 4:26 pm
He’s playing the wrong quarterback for sure that’s all I know does Baker Mayfield pay off these announcers to talk good about him because the interception he threw was literally 3 yards from Mike Evans the guy literally was not even in a position if he threw the ball in the right place it would have been in Mike Evans hands but it was the defense that got the interception it wasn’t Baker Mayfield’s fault
November 26th, 2023 at 4:40 pm
I’m wondering a couple of things here: why did Dennis Green ever get fired, where is he today? Also, Mike Singletary turned SF into a mean team when it was a pretty austere and boring organization. Tampa serms like a landing pad for some pretty gruff coaches that have brought success in spurts. Why not hire some of this old blood? Maybe lure Bellicheat after the Pats can him — bet he’d love to redeem his legacy by coming here and getting our core (the O-line specifically) to play inspired?
We need a coach with HC experience. Not another experiment. Why we didn’t go after Eric Bieneme if we were going to let just any c{coordinator give it a shot is beyond me. The end of year one should have been the end of Bowels’ HC career. The missed timeouts, the 👁️🗨️bvious contrast of rhythm and success when TB12 would get pissed and call his own plays and cadence (not much credit there since all you gotta do is NOT call a run up the gut on 1st down and the ball moves well for us). I get frustrated because we are all armchair QBs, HCs and OCs. In reality, we re just fans, but those of us who have played and also remain loyal, are far more than just casual observers. Get this though: it seriously doesn’t take an NFL analyst or anything more than someone with knowledge and common sense to truly know, with great insight and certainty, that Todd Bowles is not cut out to coach a football team at any higher than the DC position he has managed reasonably well. I just don’t think he’s suited for that anymore, either. He’s pretty much burned his credibility giving the greatest QB of all time his first losing record on a Super Bowl caliber roster with those obviously egotistical, stubborn, and maddening decisions. I dunno — your call krewe. But as a savvy fan, I say we all clamor for a firebrand at HC in unison 💪🏻
November 26th, 2023 at 5:43 pm
@Jack Clark
You’re delusional.
In 2022, three QBs averaged 2+ TDs per game (Allen and Burrow had 35, Mahomes 41).
The 2023 passing TD leader is Dak. He has 23. Only two other QBs are averaging 2 TDs per game. 2 TDs a game is amazing QB play. Baker’s not an MVP finalist, but there are a lot more substantial issues than hoping a guy could throw 3+ TDs a game. Manning averaged 3.4 TDs a game when he set the season TD record.
November 26th, 2023 at 6:51 pm
Daniel Z Says:
November 26th, 2023 at 5:43 pm
You’re delusional.
In 2022, three QBs averaged 2+ TDs per game (Allen and Burrow had 35, Mahomes 41). The 2023 passing TD leader is Dak. He has 23. Only two other QBs are averaging 2 TDs per game. 2 TDs a game is amazing QB play. Baker’s not an MVP finalist, but there are a lot more substantial issues than hoping a guy could throw 3+ TDs a game. Manning averaged 3.4 TDs a game when he set the season TD record.
^^^^
Your delusional if you think a quarterback can really throw 1.9 touchdowns in a game 😂 either he scores one or two touchdowns so you need to round that decimal number up or down.