Pro Bowl Baker Mayfield?

October 14th, 2023

Hot start.

Despite what some may determine, Joe is not an anti-stats guy. Stats are nothing more than information. When exactly is information bad?

Joe will tell you when information/stats are bad: When people start doing “adjusted” or “expected” stats. That’s mathematical hopscotch where folks are trying to find a path to a predetermined result.

As soon as Joe reads a stat that has “adjusted” or “expected” in it, Joe’s brain clicks onto something else like you’d swipe up on TikTok to the next subject.

So Joe is slightly dubious by a couple of stats thrown out there by Conor Orr of about Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield. However, the result (if you believe it) is that Mayfield is playing out of his mind, way, way better than anyone could have guessed.

The Buccaneers, along with the Texans (2–3), are this year’s surprise upstarts. It is around this time that we find out whether a team’s hot start is simply the product of a generous schedule (Tampa Bay had the Vikings and Bears in the first three weeks) or whether they were simply overlooked. Contrary to my own preseason belief, this team was not built to fail. Baker Mayfield is fifth in a composite score of expected points added per play and completion percentage over expectation, two metrics that, when combined, paint an accurate picture of who is playing the position best at this moment. He is right behind … Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Just like we all expected.

The more Mayfield plays like this the better the Bucs’ chances are at the playoffs. To get there, the Bucs only need to win the lousy NFC South. And already the Bucs slapped around the slimy Saints in their haunted tomb.

The Lions will be a very tough game. Jared Goff is underrated and the Lions are pretty much like the Eagles: a very physical team that likes to pound the ball. Sooner or later, if the Bucs hope to make any noise in the playoffs, they have to find a way to battle physical teams.

They couldn’t handle the Eagles. A few weeks after playing the Lions, the Bucs will have to go to San Francisco again. So unless the Bucs want to be a one-and-done team in the playoffs, they have to find a way to tangle with a physical team. Tomorrow is as good of a time as any.

27 Responses to “Pro Bowl Baker Mayfield?”

  1. Cometowin2 Says:

    We’re back to healthy and we have a good history against the Lions. If we pass
    the ball and Luke does ok against Hutchinson we win a close one.

  2. RagingBrisket Says:

    Beat a good team (on Sunday perhaps) first…

  3. Proudbucsfan Says:

    If we beat the Lions then we beat Buffalo, I’ll be convinced, until then for me we are an 8 win team.

  4. sasquatch Says:

    4 games in. Sounds premature to be suggesting Pro Bowls.

  5. Jack Clark Says:

    Who? And what?

    i believe in my team

    On God

  6. sdm5821 Says:

    Can’t remember which podcast/talk show host said it and too lazy to look it up, but their take was that if the Bucs beat the Lions, then Baker should be included in the MVP talk.

    Even though I’m a fan of Baker, I’m a realist and have to say, whoa, pump the brakes; the season has a long way to go.

  7. BillyBucco Says:

    If Baker throws 3 or 4 TDs and 0 picks, and about 275+ yds, then we can talk about the Pro Bowl. Maybe.
    It’s actually possible with this secondary to do that IMO
    Bryce Young threw 3 TDs against this team.
    Geno Smith had over 300 and they put up 37.
    A few blowouts against pitiful teams later, and they are a top 5 team and a SB team.
    Go shut these fools up!!!

  8. garro Says:

    The talking heads are really scrambling for some off the wall content this week.

    Baker has been great thus far. MVP? ProBowl? As Lee Corso says…Not so fast my friend!

    Go Bucs

  9. garro Says:


  10. HC grover Says:

    Oh My. Can we wait til Monday?

  11. Beej Says:

    WHY are we going to poopy SF 2 years in a row?

  12. stpetebucfan Says:

    A couple of thoughts. We’re talking Pro Bowl not All Pro. One fills an entire roster for a Conference the other much more exclusive fills a starting lineup for the entire NFL.

    Given those parameters why bring up Mahomes and Allen, leave out Burrows and Tua for the AFC. If I’m not mistaken the Buc play in the NFC. Who are the hands down QB stars in the NFC? I’ll wait and let others point out Baker’s competition. Brock Purdy playing on a loaded team? Prescott who can’t seem to win the big ones. Goff will get his chance to shine this weekend.

    Second thought is it’s time to stop low renting the Buc’s Division. Yes the South got no respect in the preseason just as the Bucs were dissed. People were wrong about the Bucs and IMHO they are wrong about the South. Only the Stinkin’ Panthers suck!

    Atlanta has enjoyed some solid drafts over the past few years and Bijan Robinson among others is scary good. Desmond Ridder is just now beginning to learn the NFL game. I went to UC (I confess that prejudice) and the Bearcats have historically been a basketball school with lots of NCAA titles in their past.
    It’s only recently that they’ve started showing up in football. For Ridder to lead them as far as he did shows me something. Last week he showed a lot of people with that incredible performance.

    The Saints still have their defense…ask Bill Belichik who scored ZERO points against them in his own crib…they have decent NFL QB in Carr and they have Kamara and a couple of decent WR’s.

    Finally 3-1 is great but it’s the win on the road at N.O. that will be determinative. Along those lines I agree with Joe that the home game against Atlanta next week is far more important than tomorrow’s game against the Lions. Conference rights and seeding may be affected but the playoffs run through the South which is no longer “the lousy NFC South”. Just as the Bucs have upended preseason expectations so has the NFL South!

  13. Larrd Says:

    Love Baker but those stats sound beneficial for QBs who make things look hard. Happy feet, small stature, etc.

  14. FrontFour Says:

    Good lord, 4 games in and Pro Bowl? Gimme a break.

  15. darengibo Says:

    Baker is starting to remind me of Jim McMahon in that not the most talented, but when you include the intangibles of toughness, leadership and moxy, the team rallies around you and will follow. Licht may have found lightning in a bottle again and I am loving it!

  16. garro Says:

    Woops …On the naughty list again.
    Lets see if this one passes the Algorithim.
    Baker has done well thus far. But as a famous ex coach says on the TV every Saturday…Not so fast my firend.

    Go Bucs!

  17. PSL Bob Says:

    “Baker Mayfield is fifth in a composite score of expected points added per play and completion percentage over expectation”

    Say what? I’m sure they explained how those metrics were determined, but that’s just gibberish.

  18. stpetebucfan Says:


    Great comparison…Jim McMahon was a guy who just got it done. Sadly all the hits to his noggin have him really effed up now. Hope that doesn’t happen to Baker but in McMahon’s days DL were still allowed to blast QB’s and high hits were not always called.

    BTW for those ready to jump off the Baker bandwagon the first bad game with multiple ints…be prepared! Tom Brady had 9 3 int games in his illustrious career. Yep it can happen to the best, even the GOAT.

  19. Mark hardt Says:

    Slow down. It is a full season award. Not only that Baker plays best when everyone thinks he sucks. Play the game. You suck Baker. Reverse psychology.

  20. orlbucfan Says:

    Beej Says:
    October 14th, 2023 at 5:23 am
    WHY are we going to poopy SF 2 years in a row?
    Cos the 49ers are a NFL and MSM sports darling. You know it as well as I do. Whoa, joes!!!!! One game at a time. What I’m looking for is gradual improvement, game by game. Cardiac Bucs by 1–go Tampa Bay!! Win a game after the Bye for once!

  21. Since76 Says:

    Those stats don’t pass the eyeball test. This offense has struggled Even with the defense giving them opportunities. ProBowl! Probowl? Let’s have at least consistent average QB play first. Lol

  22. Stanglassman Says:

    The Bucs and Baker maybe a pretty good team this year. So far It’s about what I expected it to be. Young & scrappy. All this talk about Baker being a pro bowler and the Bucs being in the playoffs is so premature. I wish this talk could wait until late November or December football. That’s when we’ll know. It could easily go either way at this point and looking ahead gets you beat.

  23. David Says:

    Pro bowl Baker soon to be Trash Baker after Bucs plays
    Lions, 49’ers, Bills and Texans.

  24. David Says:

    Baker wasn’t a pro bowler against the good team, Eagle this year. He is a proven incompetent journeyman at best.

  25. stpetebucfan Says:


    Honestly and without snark since I’ve answered this question in the positive.

    I’m genuinely curious about the FACTS that back up your “incompetent journeyman”? Please share your reasons.

  26. David Says:

    Fourth team in 6 years in NFL with losing record.That is full description of an incompetent journeyman who is hoping to make it in the weakest division in NFL.

  27. Crickett Baker Says:

    I thought that the article you linked was very well thought out and interesting. Canales says we have a long way to go and I will believe in him. That doesn’t mean we can’t get 1st downs, he continues to say, but I can’t over-expect our competence.

    I hope Gene Deckerhoff is fired up. GO BUCS! Make it a great game!