Baker Mayfield’s Ridiculous Third-Down Numbers

October 2nd, 2023

Third-down king.

The positive here is incredible, and that’s what makes it sort of a cautionary tale.

Through four games, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield has somehow completed 79.5 percent of his passes on third down. That’s been good for 322 passing yards, 5 touchdowns and zero picks.

Those are certifiably ridiculous numbers.

And Mayfield is doing it with a bad running game. So it’s not like he’s steadily throwing in 3rd-and-short situations. Plus, Mayfield has scrambled very effectively for a guy not known for his legs.

So what’s the cautionary tale, Joe? Well, it’s likely impossible for Mayfield to keep up this pace. Nobody is that great on the money down for an entire season.

However, Mayfield does have the luxury of two money players to target on those third downs: Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. And that’s part of what made yesterday’s win against the Saints extra exciting. Mayfield was 3-for-3 throwing on third down in the second half when Evans was out with a bad himstring, and backup receiver Deven Thompkins caught two of those balls.

Still, the Bucs can improve a lot on third down. Tampa Bay had two failed runs on 3rd-and-1 yesterday, and Mayfield was forced into several third-down scramble situations.

33 Responses to “Baker Mayfield’s Ridiculous Third-Down Numbers”

  1. Fernando Says:

    TPA VS DET flexed to 4:25pm

  2. David Says:

    I think you forgot to disclose Baker’s third down numbers against Eagles. He only had 12 first downs in that game scoring 3 points in three quarters with a late garbage time touch down.

    Yes, Baker has dink and dunk in positive way beating up on poor teams as he should. After week four, Baker has defeated three teams with combined record of
    3W-9L .
    Let’s check his third down conversion rates after he plays (Eagles, Bills, 49’ers, Lions).

  3. ATLBucsFan Says:

    The way the Aints targeted Mayfield would have taken him out for sometime. Thought that should have been a targeting foul! He’ll have to be careful when getting out of the pocket.

  4. Capt2fish Says:

    Yes david…..and Trask would have had an 80% 3rd down percentage

  5. David Says:

    It is too early to discuss signing Baker to a long term contract after Bucs winning against three teams with non-winning records (3W-9L) and getting blow out by a good team. He should be considered for 2024 starting qb only if Bucs win the division and at least winning a first round playoff game. Otherwise draft a qb and let him to compete with Trask.

  6. Jimmy J Says:

    I’m over White. I would put him on 3rd string . And Jason Licht needs to get to work on finding someone .

  7. Bryce Says:

    @David you’re an idiot.

  8. Don’t tell me it’s raining Says:

    @David: I’ll make deal with you, if what you said turns out to be correct, I’ll never post another word on JBF. But it turns out that you’re full of sh!t, then you never post another word on JBF. Deal? I mean you seem to know A LOT about everything, so I imagine you’ll be right and I’ll lose. So deal????

    Mike S Says:
    September 26th, 2023 at 4:01 pm
    Baker is a fraud. 1-6 over the next 7 games.

  9. Capt2fish Says:

    Talk about signing baker right now is a moot point considering we were barely able to sign our draft picks. Big decisions up ahead as lots of pivotal pieces of this team will need to be addressed. Licht will earn his paycheck trying to get them all signed.

  10. Mr. Editor Says:

    I like that there seems to be a sense of urgency in those third down situations. That helps the defense stay fresh. The running game is a liability, and I hope that it gets fixed.

  11. Pelsbuc61 Says:

    Baker’s numbers would be even better if Evans didn’t have all those drops.

  12. WyomingJoe Says:

    David: LOSER! Mike S: LOSER! Both of you guys make Bucs fans on this site sick. I’m tired of both of you and it sounds like many others do too. Btw, BAKER IS BETTER and that’s driving both of you crazy.

  13. Jack Clark Says:

    “The positive here is incredible”

    I think we can go 11-6 this year and win a playoff game

  14. Sly Pirate Says:

    Baker has been even better on 3rd down than those numbers. He’s run for so many key 1sts down.

  15. Tbbucs3 Says:

    Remember when the Trask mob wanted Baker benched after the 1st quarter of the season? Laughable looking back….the Trask trolls are back in hiding but will return the second Baker (or Winston) makes a bad throw.

    As far as 3rd down no team struggles to get 3rd and shorts more than the Bucs in recent years….wish we still had a true power back like Alstott who could get 3rd and 1 everytime.

  16. Eddie Says:

    David, you are a pretentious individual. We just broke the saints defensive streak of less than 20 allowed and are 2-0 on the road. What will you say when we beat the lions next week? The chiefs win dident count? Your not a bucs fan your a flake and GO BUCS!!! GO MAYFIELD!!!

  17. DBS Says:

    I do have to admit. One of the Trask boys said Trask was warming up. And he was. For about 2 minutes. They must have been dancing in their living room. But then reality set in. He was back on the bench.

  18. Obvious Says:

    No. The guy going by “David” clearly isn’t a fan of the bucs. I could be wrong But I believe him to be a Panthers fan.


    GO BUCS!

  19. Buckeyebuckchuck Says:

    It’s not really surprising he is thriving in this system. Canales offense fits his skill set, and he has never had receivers like ME and CG. OBJ had a 50% catch rate and ownership demanded he get plenty of targets. Baker’s #s were comparable to current after Beckham got hurt

  20. Rod Munch Says:

    Well he is a Checkdown Charlie, which dramatically increases your numbers, but the offense as done a good job of keeping things to 3rd and short, so it hasn’t mattered.

    I will say listening to other teams podcasts so I can laugh at them crying, they are really triggered at all the 3rd down conversations.

  21. ATLBuc Says:

    Tbbucs3 Says:
    October 2nd, 2023 at 9:52 pm
    Remember when the Trask mob wanted Baker benched after the 1st quarter of the season?
    The Trask Mob, including myself are pulling for Baker to do well because we are above all Bucs fans. You Mayfield guys are the ones that can’t seem to get past the fact that we didn’t accept Baker with open arms. Baker won the job he’s doing a great job, we’re winning. Why troll?

  22. Buccos Says:

    Super Bowl baby!! Jason Licht shows who was really responsible for that Super Bowl. Hint: it’s not Tom Brady but the architect

  23. Rod Munch Says:

    ATLBuc – If you didn’t blindly support Mayfield before he ever took a snap YOU’RE A HATER AND DESERVE THE CHAIR! TRAITOR TRAITOR TRAITOR!!!!!

  24. BillyBucco Says:

    Wow David is a definite TROLL.
    I bet he literally lives under a bridge in either butt crack Carolina or a swamp in NO.
    Who can’t get excited about a team they ROOT for after a beatdown like that.
    And I don’t wanna hear about the Eagles game and only beating good teams.
    Young teams need to lose to get a reality check. They got one for sure. It’s IF you get back up, and HOW you get back up that matters.
    We might actually face them again this year, and it wouldn’t surprise me AT ALL if the tables turn.

  25. Bojim Says:

    We need a running game so he doesn’t have to so much. Afraid he’s going to get hurt.

  26. Beej Says:

    David, Frozen, just can’t give it up

  27. TF Says:

    I predict another division title! 8-9 should do the trick.

  28. Nate Says:

    I know a lot of people have said David has a Fatal Attraction thing going with Trask but I don’t believe it! I don’t believe that David has an intense sexual attraction to Trask. It’s not true! He does not feel about Baker the same way the girl in Swimfan about the guy from Bring It On when he didn’t call her back. These things did not happen.

  29. Bbro Says:

    Mayfield is doing very well (I’m a Trask fan) and I support Mayfield 100% now that I see he isn’t a throwaway like he was on his previous teams idk what the deal was at those teams I never watched him before. I support whoever moves the Bucs in the right direction but I never did care for Winston’s play or his distractions.

  30. orlbucfan Says:

    Buccos Says:
    October 2nd, 2023 at 10:51 pm
    Super Bowl baby!! Jason Licht shows who was really responsible for that Super Bowl. Hint: it’s not Tom Brady but the architect
    Yeah, Mr. Jason Licht. I said that on here during the Brady Soap Opera, and took a lot of flack for it. I have no dog in this BM/Trask fight. I’m glad we have two YOUNG competent QBs who can back each other up. I recall the years when we had zilch!

  31. Duane Says:

    Stupid arguments above about Mayfield and what kind of contract he gets next year after we’ve played less than 1/4 a season this year. Also stupid arguments over who loved Mayfield vs. hated him, same for Trask.

    Baker Mayfield is the quarterback until he’s not. He is playing pretty well. Our offense doesn’t stink quite as much as it did last season, but let’s don’t get carried away – we’re still ranked only 19th in points scored, at 21.0 ppg. We need to do better if we’re going to be a division winner and have at least some chance in the playoffs.

    Our defense is very good – ranked #9 in points allowed. But it can get better too … it hasn’t approached shutdown levels yet, though it did very well against an injured quarterback last Sunday. Still needs to prove it against a good team, like the Lions. So we’re soon to see.

  32. Dwayne Cone Says:

    Two of three TD’s passes against the Saints were 3rd and 5 or less and an incompletion short of a FG.

    Good to see they are moving up the list of Red Zone TD Efficiency @ 50% and tied with the Jets at 20. Baker is doing just as well as Zack Wilson in the Red Zone. Goes to show what guys drafted high in the 1st round are capable of.

  33. Wild Bill Says:

    Not sure Baker will survive the whole season but he has been fun to watch. He is one hard hit from the disabled list, but ya gotta admire his macho style. And it seems that his all out efforts have fired up his team mates. Odds of him physically surviving the whole season? Who knows for sure, but the odds are not good. He has the build of a relatively small fullback which is in his favor, but having a fearless running qb in the NFL is an invitation for disaster. Trask better be prepared!