Rest Means More Than Opponent

July 29th, 2023

Factoring in rest.

It’s an interesting theory. And if you believe Warren Sharp’s conclusion, it’s not great news for the Bucs.

Joe loves the noted handicapper’s “Warren Sharp’s 2023 Football Preview.” Such good statistical information and insights from outside the box into the NFL and the Bucs.

One element Sharp is a firm believer in is rest-advantage/disadvantage, meaning how much rest a team gets. Sharp says this is as important if not more so than the level of an opponent. It’s basis of Sharp’s strength of schedule ratings, not the previous season’s record.

And when it comes to the Bucs’ schedule, Tampa Bay is caught in a pinch a few times this season when opponents will have decisively more rest.

Although the schedule is easier compared to last season, the Buccaneers’ unique three opponents are significantly harder than their division rivals’. By winning the division last season, the Bucs draw the Bills, 49ers, and Eagles, who all rank in the top five in Super Bowl odds. They also have five games in which they have a rest disadvantage, including three games in which opponents are coming off a Thursday Night Football mini-bye.

Sharp’s theory on “rest disadvantage” is not about just rest, it’s about healing. The NFL is a brutally violent game, as every fan knows.

To compound that, Joe believes, is Bucs coach Todd Bowles and new offensive coordinator Dave Canales want to run the ball more. To succeed in the run game, a team must be more physical.

That means more pounding players taken by players. So this won’t help the Bucs in the rest advantage/disadvantage.

27 Responses to “Rest Means More Than Opponent”

  1. Rod Munch Says:

    This is the type of schedule the Bucs always get when they’re bad. Somehow all the breaks go against them.

    Also this schedule doesn’t even take into account the team will probably lose a home game due to some BS hurricane warning to be ‘safe’, and then when it hits 300 miles away we’ll hear about how we got lucky, again, for the 102nd year in a row.

  2. ATLBuc Says:

    I think this rest thing is a non factor. Whover is ready to play will win

  3. Crickett Baker Says:

    Tampa has about 200-year-old houses standing undamaged on Bayshore Blvd. I think the last time a hurricane or tornado damaged domiciles was when Carrollwood was a trailer park. People are giving up liberty for safety these days.

  4. Allen Lofton Says:

    If the team has to take more physical pounding this year, fielding a younger team than last year’s Bucs, hopefully the 2023 (Younger Bucs) should be able to recover faster than the old 2023 Bucs and possibly have more wins.

  5. Jenkins Says:

    Ol’ Warren sounds like a snoozer lol.

  6. Rod Munch Says:

    Crickett Baker – The last time a hurricane hit the Tampa Bay metro area directly was 1921. Obviously something can hit, and will one day hit again, but storms almost always end up getting pushed into the panhandle, or into south Florida. After seeing that happen like 50 times in a row, you can start to see a pattern.

    With that said, when you go over 100 years without a direct hit, you’re certainly due.

    So maybe this is the year, but I doubt, the MacDill hurricane deflector is real. I mean why would the military put Central Command in a place that is like 6 inches above the water if they didn’t have a plan.

    In any case, the Bucs will lose like 2 weeks of ‘normal’ practices and a home game, and we’ll get like 13 mph gusts out of it. That’s my prediction.

  7. Mike S Says:

    If I’m in bed with her I’m not resting

  8. bob in valrico Says:

    Tampa was lucky. There are people here in Valrico that are still trying to get their
    houses returned to their original condition from Ian last year. Thanks to all the lineman from other states,power was restored after 5 days. They beat their record of eight days from a previous hurricane.

  9. Fred McNeil Says:

    That girl would never rest in my bed either.
    That said: I often look at rest time before games too…it’s not as big of a deal as i always imagine it to be…it’s more like Deflategate. It’s psychological more than anything.

  10. Fred McNeil Says:

    We’ve never had much damage at my place, either except downed fences and maybe losing a few easily replaced shingles. I’m in Orlando

  11. Fred McNeil Says:

    The first really major hurricane I ever encountered was Charlie about 20 years ago. I decided to stand out in the street since it was my first really bad one. Standing up was a major challenge. After about 5 minutes I was freezing cold. It was fun.

  12. Defense Rules Says:

    Rod … ‘I mean why would the military put Central Command in a place that is like 6 inches above the water if they didn’t have a plan.’

    I was assigned to the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force here at MacDill Rod when we became Central Command in 1983. It was pretty much a political decision as opposed to a military decision (follow the money?). It’s much more about the military doing what they’re told as opposed to ‘having a plan’.

    Was also stationed at Homestead Air Force Base; yup, the base that was destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Had to evacuate our fighter aircraft when a hurricane was predicted to even come close because the flight line would flood big-time (as would the streets through base housing). That was some ‘plan’.

  13. RustyRhinos Says:

    In the right lighting, I can see Mary-Anne Sleeping.

  14. All_da_way Says:

    That take away is off IMO.

    NFL teams that run the ball a lot rest their defense better and pound the opposing defenses due to protecting a lead and TOP. Which also lowers the hits that skill players like QB and WR take on offense late in games.

  15. DR. POPS Says:

    You can’t see the rest of that lady she’s at least a 300 Pounder And having hot flashes

  16. JD Still Says:

    Perhaps the new simplified offense will negate some of the rest issues, less prep time required , means more rest time, also, if everyone stays healthy , the defense will have more depth, and can rotate players in more easily , if neither happens , so be it ! It’s only 60 minutes of maximum effort a week, 25 for the offense, 25 for defense and 10 for special teams, piece o ‘ cake!

  17. Jack Burton Mercer Says:

    I’m a big believer in this too. I was just thinking about this while driving across town. Got very lucky and Tom Brady’d several lights in a row. You know where I hit the yellow and sailed through. But the one light I really needed I Aaron Rodger’d and got stuck at the red. Gave me time to read JBF and chime in. Go Bucs.

  18. Joe Says:

    In the right lighting, I can see Mary-Anne Sleeping.

    LOL (not wrong)

  19. Jerry Says:

    What if the pillows in the hotel smell and you don’t get a good nights sleep, does that change the odds for that game .

  20. Pryda…sec147 Says:

    Who cares we can beat all those teams any given Sunday plus ef the eagles

  21. Oddball Says:

    F that! Sleep when you’re dead.

  22. Mike S Says:


  23. FirstTimePoster Says:

    “The NFL is a brutally violent game” I disagree. In the 70’s, and even into the 80’s it was. Ask any team back then what they thought about “rest.” When they got back from their second job, they might have time to answer.

  24. unbelievable Says:

    He’s spot on in that rest / travel absolutely matters.

    It’s not black and white / a guarantee, but we know teams that travel more usually get a few more injuries / fatigued by the season end. That’s why the bye week matters so much, and that majority of SH winners have a later bye week to recharge before the playoffs.

    And so opponent teams rest / travel / schedule matters are well, of course.

  25. garro Says:

    Since I don’t gamble…
    Screw this Oddsmaker Statgeek BS!

    Go Bucs!

  26. Ko Kiefer Says:

    Rod Munch – are you seriously complaining that Hurricane Ian didn’t hit Tampa last year? I may be reading between the lines, but really?

  27. TampaBayBucsFanSince1976 Says:

    Close down National weather Service and NOAA as their value is minimal.