Cynthia Frelund Again Offers Her Season-Win Total For Bucs

July 15th, 2023

The numbers say…

Every stathead in the free world is fully triggered by Baker Mayfield.

Their arguments are backed up by — what else? — stats. The most damning to Joe was how handicapper Warren Sharp built the case for how devastating a sack is for an offense. And Mayfield the past couple of years has become, for whatever reason, a sack machine.

Joe’s been researching Bucs stuff on the interwebs quite a bit over the past couple of months and Joe cannot find one gambler or stathead, who believes the Bucs can overcome what our friends in the desert see for the Bucs this year, a projected win-total of 6.5.

(Their arguments seem logical: Replacing Tom Brady with Mayfield makes a team at least two games worse and the Bucs only won eight games with Brady.)

Well, NFL Network’s resident stat queen Cynthia Frelund continues the groupthink. She too wonders aloud why the Bucs think Mayfield can lead them to the playoffs. As she concluded months ago, she has the Bucs at 6.4 wins.

Unlike Bucs coach Todd Bowles, Frelund believes the Bucs are firmly planted in rebuild territory, despite how many solid players the Bucs have returning. In Frelund’s mind, the issue is the players lost on offense.

She added the Bucs don’t have an identity.

48 Responses to “Cynthia Frelund Again Offers Her Season-Win Total For Bucs”

  1. Beej Says:

    Everyone thought Tannehill was a bust until the Titans put him on for Mariota

  2. Jack Clark Says:

    How can you win 6.4 games?? Sheesh at least round up or down

  3. Dooley Says:

    “Replacing Tom Brady with Mayfield makes a team at least two games worse and the Bucs only won eight games with Brady”

    This logic is questionable, because there are 52 other players on the roster that can effect. We also averaged 18 ppg w/Tom Brady being a top decision maker for our offense. You can try to split the hairs all you want, no way Leftwich was just standing there with the play sheet dictating to Tom Brady on what plays to run as it’s high likely TB12 had his share in the decision-making that made the Bucs offense just a notch above unbearable to watch.

  4. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    The Bucs had to acquire someone to “compete” with Trask…….they simply couldn’t put Bowles in that situation.
    I believe that trying to save Bowles job has cost the Bucs an opportunity to rebuild.
    The Glazers would have been better off telling Bowles he was safe and then trading away some players for draft capital…..
    Not tanking but not investing tn the 23 team either.

  5. FrontFour Says:

    6.4. Just stupid. Acting like there’s some science to a guess. Just stupid.

  6. Pickgrin Says:

    The Bucs will have a top 10 Defense and the offense will improve from 18 ppg to at least 23 ppg.

    That means 9 or 10 wins.

    Bet the OVER!

  7. mark2001 Says:

    Sounds about right. But if we don’t win at least one of the two against the Vikings and Bears… Overly optimistic.

  8. TheBucsAnthem Says:

    If these Bucs win more than 5 games…..I’ll be very impressed

    Simply put, New Journeyman QB, New Offensive Cordinator, New Left Tackle…..

    Gee…….what could go wrong!?!?! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

  9. Fansince76 Says:

    I have put money on the OVER!

    I just don’t see 6 wins unless Mayfield is a complete train wreck
    which i don’t think will happen with Canales offense.

  10. Hodad Says:

    Butter face. The Bucs don’t have an identity? How could they, haven’t played a game yet!

  11. Marine Buc Says:

    6.4 games?


    It’s either 6 or it’s 7.

    Oy vey!

  12. HC Grover Says:

    6 wins would be amazing. Under

  13. Buc4evr Says:

    I would be surprised if the Bucs can win 7 games. Every game I have seen Mayfield play he seems to have happy feet and gets sacked a lot. Think he is too small to be an NFL QB. Time will tell but I wouldn’t bet the over.

  14. Aaron Says:

    I don’t think the Bucs will be a train wreck and actually may “look” better on offense than last year…but arguably the Bucs are going into the season with major question marks at 4 of the most important position. Plus, I just don’t trust Bowles / QBs to close out games…I see 2 to 4 wins but with the Bucs giving away 4 wins due to incompetence.

    Team Question Marks
    1) QB (if Mayfield is not lights out better than Trask – play Trask)
    2) head coach (he lost me at last years Cleveland game 4th and 2 at the +37yard
    line up 7 with 7min to go…#12 at QB – we Punt – we lose)
    3) Pass rush (bad draft record at drafting d-line and coaching them up)
    4) O-line (will get better as season goes on)

    Go Bucs!!

  15. Mike D Says:

    6.4? Well thanks for the intel “Cynthia”, I’ll make sure I run to Vegas and start placing my bets…not

    I agree with most of you- 6.4, 6.5? Bro- just round up or down – don’t act your Bill Nye the science guy or trying to act like you were up all night constructing an equation and solving win/loss statistic problems like good Will hunting.

    And telling everyone your opinion of (English translation), I think the Bucs will win 6 games this year doesn’t even shock most fans because we really don’t know what we will have this year but generally speaking, everyone expects a drop off which means more losses and less wins.

    Next article please……

  16. WillieG Says:

    All these experts aren’t considering anything other than the loss of Brady and how the Bucs sucked with Brady last year. They don’t take into consideration that:

    Brady wasn’t Brady due to off field issues
    Jensen was out the whole year
    Leftwhich sucked as an OC

    If Brady didn’t have off-field issues, the Bucs win at least 1 more game
    If they have Jensen all year, they win at least 1 more game
    If they had an OC who could game-plan AND make adjustments, they win 4 more games. Last year should have been 10-12 wins.

    This year:
    They don’t have Brady (yet?)
    They have Jensen
    They have an OC who appears to be competent

    The only major unknown is Bowles. Will he learn from his stupid mistakes and play to win instead of playing not to lose? If he does, 10 or more wins. If he doesn’t, 7-8.

  17. Steelers fan Says:

    The Bucs only chance is Trask i dunno what people dont get about it. Baker isnt going to magicly become something hes not…He takes tons of sacks and that leads to him leading the league in in ints since he came in the league…Look these things are REAL and thats who he is. Anyone who tells fans Baker is the answer and this is who can save Bowles job are nuts! Baker is the opposite of a guy that saves your job.

  18. Jeff’s grandpa Says:

    Mid July and there nothing to talk about I see

  19. R0n@Tampa Says:

    Most of us know this is a 12 win team. Maybe 13. 7 or less is laughable. just shows how little some fans know about football if they think the Bucs do not raise it this year. very little.

  20. A Bucs Fam Says:

    The best the Bucs can hope for is an “exciting” average football team that wins a weak division title and an upset wild card victory. Next year is when they will begin to compete and by 25-26 they’ll be contenders again.

  21. Brandon Says:

    That’s the statheads don’t watch football, they watch trends, and they don’t know how bad Tom Brady was for us last year. He is the main reason our offense sucked.

  22. Cchead Says:

    Bucs have a head coach who is a proven loser. Facts. As long as he is in charge expect more of the same.

  23. SB~LV Says:


  24. Beej Says:

    I remember reading the running commentary game threads in the Super Bowl season, and following season where we went 13-4, Brady threw for 43 tuddies, 5,300 yards. Invariably after a punt. “OMG this team SUCKS!’ BRADY is WASHED! WASHED I SAY” “WE CAN’T DO ANYTHING RIGHT!” “FIRE THE COACH!” This forum pretty much the same

  25. Joe Says:

    Acting like there’s some science to a guess.

    There you have it.

  26. Joe Says:

    That’s the statheads don’t watch football, they watch trends

    Joe ABSOLUTELY buys that with baseball. Not so much with football (though pretty confident some don’t watch the game). This Seth Walder of BSPN is a perfect example of a guy who doesn’t watch games.

    You pretty much summed it up the best Joe has read: They look for trends, not matchups.

  27. Mike S Says:

    She’s so damn hot and smart too. I don’t know if I can date a woman that beats me in fantasy football and the gloats over it. Its only tolerable if you are staking Ws in the bedroom.

  28. Mike S Says:

    Stacking Ws I mean.

  29. SlyPirate Says:


    The Bucs are going to the Cinderella Story of the year. I can’t wait for these articles …

    “Are these Bucs for Real?”
    “Baker is back!”
    “Bowles is a Genius”
    “Canales is the next Phenom HC”
    “Was TB12 the Real Problem”

  30. Mike S Says:

    WTF is NFL+? A paywall? Ridiculous.

  31. Pewter Power Says:

    Stat head geeks are not the experts on how much success a team can achieve even though they believe it in their own heads. Pushing the franchise quarterback talk is why they have us at 6.5 wins but giants have a higher win total. I could argue that anyone who thinks they have a better roster or franchise quarterback is doing hard drugs

  32. Dooley Says:

    “Pushing the franchise quarterback talk is why they have us at 6.5 wins but giants have a higher win total. I could argue that anyone who thinks they have a better roster or franchise quarterback is doing hard drugs”

    THIS! Giants will have a tougher time not being the 3rd best team in the NFCE than the Bucs will trying to actually win the NFCS. Also, these predictions are always surface level, they hardly ever go through the schedule and pick the specific games we’ll win or lose because that takes more work. I’ll keep parroting the CDIII line of “nobody knows sh*t until it happens” at least until week 1 of the preseason.

  33. Defense Rules Says:

    Cchead … ‘Bucs have a head coach who is a proven loser.’

    The importance of the head cheese, guy-in-charge, whatever, is overrated In my experience. They’re only as good as their coordinators & other assistant coaches, AND as good as the talent that they’re provided with & can develop. Example: Tony Dungy’s offenses ranked #30, 23, 18, 27, 6 & 15 over his 1996-2001 stretch as Bucs’ HC (#20 average). When he went to the Colts his offenses ranked #17, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3 & 13 over his 2002-2008 stretch as Colts HC (#6 average). Major difference … but the same HC. Much better OC (some guy named Tom Moore) and much better QB (some guy named Peyton Manning).

    BTW, I’m with Pickgrin on this season’s projected guess … 9 or 10 wins is doable. But it’ll be because of our DEFENSE, not our offense. Last season Bucs were involved in 5 games that we won or lost by 3 points or less, and another 5 games by 7 points or less. We won 6 of those 10 close games, despite having an offense that only averaged 18 PPG. Based on this year’s talent, our defense SHOULD at least stay middle-of-the-pack, and hopefully get similar results in close games. The remaining 7 games we SHOULD at least split (3-4 or 4-3). Thus, 9 or 10 wins.

    Oh wait, that’s 9.5 games not 9 or 10. OK I’m going with 9.5 season wins to be consistent with Cynthia & Vegas. Perhaps the .5 win will be a tie?

  34. R0n@Tampa Says:

    12 wins and a super bowl. Anything less than that is just plain foolishness. We need some more die hard fans posting here. not this fairweather loser stuff. Some of you aren’t real fans.

  35. Bucanero Says:

    Ì’m interested in Frelund’s modelling strategies.

  36. Mike S Says:

    Defense the before and after results of Arians is undeniable. The Head Coach matters.

  37. James Says:

    For those that don’t understand sports betting, when someone says 6.5 wins, that is to avoid a push. So you bet the under because the Bucs will win maybe 2-4 games this year. 6.4 wins means she is leaning towards the under slightly. But I find it amusing the negative comments on this site just trashing people without knowing what is going on.

    I’ll take the under please.

  38. James Says:

    BTW; the original article was las vegas odds at 6.5 wins. She said 6.4. What she is saying is she’ll take the under, but just slightly. Man, how people on this site just spew out nonsense without knowing stuff.

  39. Pickgrin Says:

    Mike S Says:
    “the before and after results of Arians is undeniable.”

    As was the difference in the offensive roster between 2021 and 2022.

    5 of 11 starters on offense gone
    (Cappa, Jensen, Marpet, Gronk, AB)
    4 of those 5 had Pro Bowl or better talent…..

    Godwin was not the same player coming back from injury and D. Smith was terrible.

    Oh – and Brady was seriously “distracted” and obviously not the same player last year either…

    That’s 8 of 11 starters gone or not performing like they did the previous year.

    And the OC couldn’t adjust or scheme or call plays better to save his (professional) life….

    But lets blame ALL of those (mostly offensive) problems on Todd Bowles…


  40. TampabayDJ Says:

    Bucs will win at least 10 games. Why aren’t the stat heads saying the same about the Packers ? I’d rather have Mayfield or Trask than Jordan Love ! Is he not the same as Trask ? An unknown , unproven QB ?

  41. Infomeplease Says:

    There will be more negative bs from almost every talking head until the Bucs start chalking in Wins! Hopefully that comes sooner than later!

  42. Joe Says:

    WTF is NFL+

    You never heard of NFL+? That’s like saying you never heard of NFL Network.

  43. The Beer Whisperer Says:

    Yep. I am taking the over, also.

    No games have even been played yet. Most all teams have some issues, most of the issues haven’t even appeared yet. It’s a long season. A lot happens.
    Training camps haven’t even started. Players will be lost in training camps.
    Some players will huge disappointments.

    Everyone starts 0-0

    I am glad I don’t gamble. Betting on the future is tough, lol

  44. Bring back the lawn chairs Says:

    The Bucs must improve significantly in their secondary to do well overall this year.
    I’m not sure if it’s talent or if it’s coaching.
    But after playing 17 regular season games last year and dropping that big egg in the playoffs….at home, with no apologies and With Brady. Well something is terribly off with them.

  45. MadMax Says:

    Maybe 5 wins at best…but its ok, expected….if im wrong and we win 10, awesome

  46. FortMyersDave Says:

    Tampa DJ, Freuland has the Pack and Rams at 6.5 wins, basicallly in the same spot as our Bucs.

  47. garro Says:

    Interesting that all the stat nerds can come up with stats for our upcoming season (games that havent been played stats).

    Go Bucs!

  48. Jeagan1999 Says:

    Bucs are going 10-6 this year…count on it!