Numbers Demonstrate How Disappointing 2022 Was
April 22nd, 2023
Bucs DC Todd Bowles.
As usual, Joe was nosing around and found something interesting.
And Joe long ago decided to write about what interests Joe when it comes to the Bucs. Thankully, that always has interested readers.
So last year the numbers crunchers at Football Outsiders used their spreadsheets and software and determined the Bucs would be a dominant team. After all, the Bucs returned Tom Brady and core Super Bowl starters from 2020.
Instead, per Football Outsiders, the Bucs were one of the worst underachievers in the NFL (30th). In various studies, their projected win-totals averaged about 11.5. The Bucs won just eight games.
Football Outsiders numbers also suggested the Bucs had the best odds to win the Super Bowl. Joe’s guessing a lot of that presumed if the Bucs won the very average NFC, then Brady’s Super Bowl magic would surface yet again.
Yeah, that pretty far off.
So no matter how you slice it, despite winning the sorry NFC South and hosting a home playoff game, the 2022 season for the Bucs was one giant facepalm.
April 22nd, 2023 at 2:34 pm
Stats are for Losers, like us!
I think Brady was playing for Brady last year ?
He got rid of the ball far too often, far too quickly.
April 22nd, 2023 at 2:42 pm
Arians’ end in Tampa was Succession-esque. So many bizarre twists and storylines. Did Arians really quit or did Tom fire him? What organization allows their HC to hold them captive by forcing his replacement? And yet Bowles wasn’t allowed to name his own staff? And when Bowles was finally allowed to fire Leftworst, he kept him because ‘there was no one on the staff that could do better’ yet BA was still on the staff?! Who tf exactly is calling the shots at OneBuc?
April 22nd, 2023 at 2:47 pm
The difference: Football Outsiders neglected to include a damping function for the drag on the team that the failed Jets head coich and his losing streak would cause. Their model presumed no drop off from BA .
Oops.
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:07 pm
People that want to blame Brady for being quick to get ride of the ball, I’d love to see you stand behind that crappy line and hold the ball any longer. Brady got rid of the ball quickly because he had to if he wanted to live, walk and feed himself after football.
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:07 pm
I think next season will be worse. I don’t think Bowles is a good head coach. I hate saying that, because I really wanted him follow Arians, but if a coach plays to not lose with Tom Brady at QB, what the hell will he do with Mayfield, or God forbid, Trask?!!
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:10 pm
Bad coaching is why the Bucs were an average team last year, now with Brady gone they would have to overachieve to reach average.
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:15 pm
Blind Lemon Leftwich and Toad Bowels coached a winning team into total oblivion.
We couldn’t have done it without you.
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:32 pm
Joe, you are truly a masochist.
Here I am eagerly looking fwd to the draft with hope in my heart, only to have Joe revist the 2022 season like a spotlight on the Tapper Pub last call hookup the next morning. Can we at least get through the draft before we have to stare into the face of that hot mess again?
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:43 pm
The coaching has always been bad throughout Arians short Bucs stint. They lost too much talent to cover up the below average to poor coaching. Suh, JPP, Marpet, Cappa, Gronk and crazy Brown just to name a few, then throw in some injuries and you have the 2022.
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:47 pm
The whole team was just out-of-sorts last year.
Coaches, players, even front office. Even the FAs we brought in were lackluster. The draft picks were lousy, except for Camada and the rookie TEs. White wasn’t too bad.
We signed some promising free agents this year.
We need a superlative draft.
April 22nd, 2023 at 3:56 pm
Bowles has to prove he can overachieve with the talent on the squad because he clearly underachieved last year as a HC Other than OL he had enough to talent to do better than what they finished with record wise.
With that said I can’t put it all on Bowles because Licht made some strange free agent signings. Replacing Hicks with Suh didn’t make sense to me because Hicks doesn’t bring that much more pass rush than Suh and Suh is a reliable rotational player.
JPP even looked better for the Ravens than what was trotted last year by the Bucs.
Point is is that if you are going to replace players you need to bring in players just as good or better. If not then just stick it on one more year and then hit the reset button when something better comes along.
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:05 pm
Six wins max as long as Bowles is in charge, no matter the season, is the most likely outcome – 5 yrs as HC, 33 wins total
6 and change per year average
Without Brady, that’s exactly how many we win last year
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:12 pm
Bowles is just not HC material. He singlehanded lost the Cleveland game last year among other games and didn’t have the stones to fire Leftwich mid season. Also, knowingly your kicker can’t kick yeyé de 45 yds and insisting he kick from beyond 50 is insane.
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:19 pm
Well, this seems pretty much in line with Todd Bowles brand: TB Underachiever!!
That’s all he ever did his whole career… branded as a “guru” but always delivering under the promise… somehow it feels to me like there is always an excuse: “Todd Bowles is a defense guru and a soon to be dominant HC, but this season he did not quite achieve what we all know his unbelievable teams are capable of. If only next season he can [insert here your favorite excuse], he will be unstoppable!!
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:23 pm
Disastrous coaching all the way around. Run blocking was a joke.
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:24 pm
Gm gave us the worst line in football
Not much more to say
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:28 pm
Coaching. Coaching. Coaching. Carolina. Pittsburgh. Cleveland. Three embarrassing losses to far inferior teams.
They got rid of Suh and JPP and acted shocked when the steady but unspectacular and quiet LD did not rise up and make guys play harder.
On Offense, Brady was distracted off the field, rushed on it, and had zero support from a running game or playcalling with a purpose to help him. Godwin was still hurt. No TE threat.
What will be better this year?
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:29 pm
If you’re building a winning team you start with the GM and Head Coach. Then you add in players. JL has proven his skill as was discussed in a recent article here. That leads us to the head coach. Bowles has not proven to anyone that he is a capable head coach. He has another chance this season. If he fails again, the Bucs must send him packing! He has had a very talented team to work with. Sure, he has plenty of excuses! Winning coaches don’t use them! They get results by emphasizing team strengths and hiding team weaknesses! Winning head coaches make adjustments when needed, during the season and during the games. They manage the refsand the game clock. They get the players to believe in themselves and play at their peak ability. They create a winning attitude! So far as the Bucs head coach, TB has not shown that he can do any of these things.
April 22nd, 2023 at 4:33 pm
Imo
April 22nd, 2023 at 5:14 pm
Brady outright won 3 or 4 for us in the closing minutes, COULD have been worse
April 22nd, 2023 at 5:18 pm
Byron….”Numbers demonstrate how disappointing 2022 be”
April 22nd, 2023 at 5:31 pm
Bowles is a poor coach plain and simple. The most telling issue was that the bucs did not improve from week 1 to week 18. Ist 2 or 3 games of the season do not tell as much of a story as the rest of the season. there has been successful teams that start the season with losses. This team did not look 1 iota better as the season went on. A bad sign. And we had a lot of things fall our way..dont kid yourself. we played mcsorley and a potpourri of nfc south qbs and other teams had more injury issues than we did. we were the best loser in the nfc south. He gets no credit for losing the least in the nfc south.
April 22nd, 2023 at 5:32 pm
Brady could pile up the yards. He couldn’t score. When a team can’t score, they lose nine games. Brady is intelligent. He’s also old, and can’t carry a team.
April 22nd, 2023 at 5:57 pm
When any team is distracted by dissension failure is expected. I wrote about what my sources knew about division on the team. It was what it was. Hopefully, because the cancer who was the OC is gone and there will be a new start on offense.
April 22nd, 2023 at 7:31 pm
One day the truth about the whole Tom Brady, Bruce Arians, Todd Bowles and Bucs front office saga will come out and we will all say, so that’s why it happened. Until then we can only guess, but we will know one day.
April 22nd, 2023 at 9:49 pm
It seems that quite a few astute fans look at the 2021 Bucs, look at the 2022 Bucs, acknowledge the decline from 14-5 to 8-10, and recognize the most profound difference.
Hint – he’s growing a big red nose, tufts of red hair out of each side of his bald head, and will start wearing the number “0” to practice.
April 22nd, 2023 at 10:34 pm
Crazyhorse, interesting that you have intel regarding Leftwurst being the turd in the wedding cake. Not surprising, although in his defense, he be’d not real too smart enoughable to make the lockers room be don’t.
April 23rd, 2023 at 2:49 am
Goatfarmer nailed it.
The stat heads haven’t yet figured out how to quantify Coaching.
Bowles game mangement and Byrons mystifying play calls were not taken into acount at all. I will add that injuries and Brady playing spooked all year also had a role.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:11 am
Brady playing spooked??? Hmm, so for years the man known as having the quickest release in the game gets rid of the ball too fast in 2022 to avoid sacks. In 2021 when he was releasing the ball even faster, was he dodging hits then when they went 14-5?
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:16 am
And Yet the HC still had a job??????