Bucs’ Near Future Really Does Hinge On Tom Brady

January 25th, 2023

This is a story for lawyers and accountants.

Joe’s not much of a salary cap guy because, well, it’s boring as hell. And then when you try to study it, it leaves one dizzier than after downing three shots of Wild Turkey.

“If you take this money and do this, then it’s only that bad; but if you then take this figure and put that here it only costs this much but if you push that back two years it only costs…

ENOUGH! And if worms had shotguns, robins wouldn’t eff with them!

Michael Ginnitti, the co-founder of Spotrac, which monitors NFL teams and players’ salaries, spells out how the Bucs are in a holding pattern.

If the Bucs keep Brady, they can play games with his salary and the cap won’t be a huge problem. If he leaves, multiple veteran starters on offense could be traded for significant draft picks.

Brady re-signs with the Bucs, assumedly to another 1 year $30M contract, that also includes a $30M “option” for 2024. It’s a minimum base salary with an offsetting roster bonus (treated as a signing bonus, but protects Brady from having to pay it back in any instance). This drops his 2023 cap hit from $35.1M to $17.7M.

You can read the spinning about the Bucs’ salary cap here.

If Brady leaves and, as Ginnitti suggests, a couple of big-name players can bring in a draft haul, Joe is OK with launching Operation Tank to #CollapseForCaleb or, in the process, land Drake Maye.

14 Responses to “Bucs’ Near Future Really Does Hinge On Tom Brady”

  1. SufferingSince76 Says:

    The Bucs need to ask Brady if he intends to sign elsewhere or if the Bucs are still in the running. According to the rumors, he should be able to answer that question now. If he’s truly leaving, the Bucs need to start making decisions now.

  2. Leighroy Says:

    Eh, no it doesn’t. Maintaining the status quo with accounting voodoo does not improve the near term outlook if Brady returns, so either way the near term future is bleak I hate to say it.

    The bucs are like the senior in HS who’s girlfriend is going out of state to a good college and he’s stuck going to a local trade school, trying to figure out a visitation schedule he can’t actually afford. One day in free agency were gunna surprise our FA QB at their dorm to find them in bed with another team.

  3. ClwJB Says:

    Cold and calculated on the inside ear and fuzzy on the outside

    TB12 will rid himself from this dumpster fire

    Eat all the cap loss this year and let Todd win his 4 games before getting the ax

    Sad time to be a Bucs fan, kind of like having Richard Williamson as your hope for the future….

  4. 1sparkybuc Says:

    Tired of the drama. Get rid of Brady. Suffer the consequences. Reclaim the team. Build around whatever core of players we can manage to retain. Tired of reading about Brady. I want to read about the team once again. Brady, very obviously, is not capable of carrying a bad team, and the Bucs are a bad team. Brady needs a good team that needs a QB. I am convinced that most any mobile QB would have won more than 8 games with this roster, and I’ll even include Jameis Winston in that. Give Trask a shot with the starting lineup, and take our lumps. Beef up the OL and draft a speed WR. Fire Bowles. He is acceptable as a DC. He can’t handle even the most basics of running a whole team. Go Bucs

  5. Allbuccedup Says:

    Brady has become totally one dimensional when he gets pressure he has to go down he can’t run anymore and the older he gets the less mobile he becomes. Its sad but you reach a point where you need to retire. A lot of players hang around to long might as well go out before you embarrass yourself. Don’t get me wrong with the right situation he might still flourish but with Raiders, Dolphins or Bucs he won’t it would have to be with a good playoff team that needs a QB which will be hard to find.

  6. Marine Buc Says:

    It’s pretty simple. If Brady comes back expect a very similar team back next year… The Bucs will be able to reload.

    If Brady leaves then it will be rebuild time.

  7. NEfan Says:

    Brady has played the same for 23 years. He excelled in 2020 & 2021 because of the offensive weapons. No different than Allen, Mahomes and Burrow. Take Kelce away from Mahomes they lose four more games. Seriously, Purdy without McCaffery, Samuel & Kittle? Major difference this season was zero running game. 1sparkey@ name one of the 4 remaining teams in the playoffs that DOESN’T have a solid running games. Many of you discount this fact, this is the only reason Bucs O didn’t work.

  8. NEfan Says:

    Forgot look at the Eagles since they acquired AJ.Brown!

  9. stpetebucfan Says:

    TB will always be the GOAT. TB will always be the guy who led the Bucs to a second SB. But TB CLEARLY is no longer GRN…Greatest Right Now…in fact it’s not even close.

    TB MAY have enough left in the tank to lead a very good team to the playoffs but he no longer plays at GRN much less GOAT level. He left more questions unanswered than answered about how much he has left and whether Father Time has finally won. Father Time ALWAYS wins sooner or later..in the case of TB12 that’s obviously SOONER.

    Can Brady still play? Certainly! At the high level normally expected…doubtful and at his age Father Time can move VERY quickly even during next year’s season. Brady is now a gamble if we’re honest.

  10. D-Rok Says:

    With a name like Ginnitti, I wonder where his “family” is from – Chicago or New York?

    As for Brady, he hasn’t f*in decided yet, so f*in leave him be. LOL.

  11. HC Grover Says:

    Brady will take the money and run. Bucs will be 0-6 b4 they fire Bowzo,

  12. NEfan Says:

    HC, why not they owe it to him, it’s his money.

  13. Rod Munch Says:

    Thanks for posting this Joe, I would have missed it otherwise. I love a good detailed cap story.

  14. RumDude Says:

    As much as I would like to see TB come back, I don’t see it. I think Tom had issue with complacency and the lack of compete on this year’s team, and Bowles inability to get more out of them. If Bowles is in charge, I don’t see Tom coming back.
    If I were putting money on it, he’ll either play in New England or Tennessee, or retire.