The Metrics Don’t Lie

December 4th, 2022

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If you want to play, you’ve got to make hay.

In the NFL’s new world order, prolific offenses will be rewarded.

Punts are considered a last resort. Points are expected because everyone around you is lighting up the scoreboard.

And so we come to the sad case of the 2022 Bucs, who have registered 18 offensive touchdowns through 11 games, one more than Lovie Smith’s Houston Texans.

That’s the football definition of insanity.

Tom Brady has taken every snap, yet this offense can’t snap out of a 3-month funk that threatens to produce Brady’s first losing season as a pro.

The Bucs’ strong defense is nowhere near enough in 2022, explains Ira Kaufman.

This isn’t 1979, when the Bucs went 10-6 despite averaging 17 points. This isn’t 1999, when the Bucs averaged 17 points and went 11-5. This isn’t 2005, when the Bucs went 11-5 while averaging 19 points.

Times have changed, along with winning formulas.

“Tom says at every press conference that we’ve got to score more,” says Derrick Brooks. “This league is not the league where I played and defense was at a premium — you get 13 or 14 points and win the turnover battle. This league is not like that today.”

These Bucs haven’t heeded the message and the metrics don’t lie.

The bottom six clubs in scoring — the Broncos, Texans, Rams, Colts, Steelers and Bucs — are a combined 20-45-2. All six have losing records. But when it comes to the stingiest scoring defenses, Denver (No. 3) and Tampa Bay (No. 5) are a combined 8-14.

Yes, scoring is king around these parts.

The top five teams in points are a combined 41-15. The top five teams in points last year finished 57-28. One of those five clubs was the 2021 Bucs. Remember them?

That team scored touchdowns. This team kicks field goals.

Heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Saints, Tampa Bay’s defense could use just a little help.

Todd Bowles’ group has been terrific in the opening half, when opponents are averaging just 7.7 points. Only the Ravens are playing better first-half defense, so you’d think Tampa Bay would consistently boast a lead after two quarters.

Not so fast.

Hard fall for the Bruce Arians offense.

The Bucs rank 28th in the league with an average of only 8.5 points in the opening half. One year ago, the Bucs averaged 14.8 points before intermission. That shocking 6-point gap goes a long way toward explaining why this group needs at least a 4-2 finish to avoid a losing record.

Halftime leads open up your playbook and generate doubt within the opposition. All five of Tampa Bay’s wins have come when the Bucs scored 21 points or fewer. That’s a testament to sturdy defense.

It’s getting late to join the party. It’s time to play complementary football.

With the exception of Ryan Succop’s dependable right foot, special teams have been erratic. We know what’s going on with this offense … not much.

The Bucs finished Top 3 in points scored during all three years of the Bruce Arians era, including the season before Brady arrived. That’s not going to happen in 2022, but there’s enough time left to make things interesting in January.

The league’s most impressive teams, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Buffalo, happen to rank 1-2-3 in scoring offense. The Bucs are 27th.

In the modern era, offense sells tickets — and wins football games.The Glazers can’t believe what has happened to this underperforming attack.

They have plenty of company. Check out the empty seats Monday night.

Ira loves that lifetime warranty on new and used vehicles!

9 Responses to “The Metrics Don’t Lie”

  1. 1BUC76 Says:

    Been saying this for a while, historically bad amongst the most historically bad in NFL HISTORY!

    And still employed after doing this twice in the NFL…….

    Applies to the HC and the OC BTW

  2. Lamarcus Says:

    The addition to Gronk and Ab is proving more valuable than the addition of Brady. I swear this team isn’t the same since AB walked out.

  3. BucsFanSince1996 Says:

    I’m not at all confident in the coaching after seeing what transpired this season, especially after the last game against Cleveland. I’d hate to lose Todd Bowles though. Clearly, he is one of the best DCs in the league. I don’t know if he’s cut out to be HC or not; he’s not shown it so far. Hopefully, he’ll change our perception over the next 6+ games about this. It’s not going to get any easier now that Wirfs is injured.

  4. Sumosam Says:

    It’s all in the coaching. It’s easy to see now. Defensive coaches operate this way. When was the last time a defensive coach had a good offense? I can’t think of one. Maybe you can.

  5. Goatfarmer Says:

    Brian Flores or Eric Bienemy.

  6. Jerseybuc Says:

    It’s so crazy this guy ruined this team in less than a year. It really is. Team is full throttle with the choke on. Dude needs to after these 5 games. The division should of been wrapped up by now.

  7. Bobby Says:

    It’s going to be rough night for those overpaid athletes who can’t get over there Super Bowl win enough to win another, and who get to play on team whose starting QB is Brady on Monday Night Football on ESBN at Ray J tomorrow. Don’t know how Devin White and Co are going to stay motivated for 4 quarters. Ridiculousness!! Hopefully, we don’t get shoved around by Cam Jordan and Saints D-Line. WR Chris Olave on offense is going to handful.

  8. Ed Says:

    Go after Philly and Buffalo offensive coaches. Eagles couldn’t do crap in playoffs last year and Hurts sucked. An off-season of hard work and a great offensive system have turned him into clutch high caliber NFL QB. Maybe an MVP.

    Good staffs make players better. Our coaches have tired predictable schemes that the players havnt bought into.

    Give us some winners that can turn the ship around.

  9. Darin Says:

    Oh heck fill em up with saints fans. Let’s see if the glazers have the sack to sack bowles after a Monday night beating.