More Intel On Tom Brady Accuracy

September 8th, 2022


Yesterday Joe shared alarming data from stathead Warren Sharp.

It showed that Tom Brady wasn’t in the top-10 of quarterbacks with the highest accuracy. This shocked Joe because Brady’s hallmark is accuracy. Everyone raves about it and anyone can can see how damn accurate he is. Pinpoint, in fact.

Well yesterday, Sharp came out with more detail about quarterbacks’ accuracy and noted it was coming from NextGen Stats, which is generated by censors in players’ equipment and the football, among other places. So it’s futile to argue with these stats because they are not numbers played with by humans. The data is raw.

So this tells Joe that the guys ahead of Brady are insanely accurate. In fact, Brady is recorded as just ahead of Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford in accuracy and just below Andy Dalton.

Other information gleaned from the NextGen Stats’ numbers by way of Sharp:

* On short passes Brady is ranked No. 15.
* On medium passes Brady is ranked No. 34.
* On deep passes Brady is ranked No. 23.
* When Brady throws moving he is No. 24.
* When planted, Brady is No. 27.
* In the red zone Brady is No. 15.
* Against man coverage Brady is No. 26.
* Against zone coverage Brady is No. 23.

You can see all the quarterbacks and their rankings right here.

Still, Joe cannot believe Brady is a middling or lower-tier quarterback with his accuracy. That really doesn’t compute,

Then again, raw data doesn’t lie.

27 Responses to “More Intel On Tom Brady Accuracy”

  1. BucsfanFred Says:

    I can drop deuces more accurately than those clowns

  2. Cobraboy Says:

    OK, then.

    By NexGen logic, Licht should have gone with Andy Dalton.

  3. SOEbuc be Says:

    Don’t give a sh!t about accuracy if he gets 5300 yards and 42 TD. Big names all over, Otton getting two tuddies.

  4. LongSeason Says:

    The data must be for where the ball is intended to be thrown to relation to where the ball actually ended up even when caught.
    Brady had the 9th best completion percentage last year. That means his receivers help him out. It could also mean that Brady was throwing the ball to a specific spot on each pass because it gave his receiver the best chance to help him out.
    Raw data cannot be used to paint the intention of a quarterback and why he threw to a certain spot.
    Just my Simoleans worth. Maybe I’m not accurate and way off target just like my hero.

  5. Buc king Says:

    What is the accuracy based on?

  6. Goatfarmer Says:

    How about when the chips are down? When you have to have a play? And anyway this mess doesn’t correlate to wins so it’s pretty much quatsch. It also doesn’t sense where the defenders are. Load of rubbish.

  7. CrackWise Says:

    How can you have an above average completion percentage but be below average in accuracy?

    Also, how does something a player wears track the ball from player to player?

    I don’t think it’s the numbers that are wrong. I think it’s the people interpreting them. That kind of thing is a serious problem these days.

  8. Bucsfan13 Says:

    Joe is alarmed by everything, especially if it’s something negative in regards to Brady.
    Sorry, you don’t get to make things up about Joe in this space. –Joe

  9. Bucsfan13 Says:

    @Longseason. Brady and Rodgers like to throws to spots. It’s why they are so good with anticipation throws. It’s all about anticipation and not waiting until the receiver comes out of his break. They throw people open. It’s also why they must have complete trust that their receivers are reading defenses like them and that they’re in the right spot. It’s one of the reasons why Brady struggled with the receivers his first year. Brady and AB had such great chemistry in their short time. It’s why even though he had Evans and Godwin he wanted AB. The one long TD against the Dolphins with AB last year was a great example of throwing with anticipation. Romo did a fantastic job of outlining just how good the throw was. NextGen might have called that throw inaccurate lol.

    In 2019, Brady’s accuracy was off. BA said he poured over film and what he saw was not a washed QB, but receivers who couldn’t get separation to save their lives. WRs that constantly ran the wrong routes. A QB that became so fearful that his receivers would drop a pass that he wouldn’t pull the trigger and dirt the ball or sail it out of bounds. I still believe that Belichick purposely tried to sabotage Tom that 2019 season. He had people thinking he was washed. BA kinda alluded to that theory.

    Any stat, NextGen or otherwise, that doesn’t have Aaron Rodgers as the most accurate QB in the NFL is dubious. Rodgers is the most accurate QB in the history of the NFL, and it’s not even close. His ball placement is the greatest I’ve ever seen. It’s why he throws so few interceptions. Rodgers is so miles ahead of anyone, including Tom. If I had to choose a QB to make one pass that I knew had to be on the money, I’m choosing Rodgers every single time. I don’t care what some analytic nerds says.

  10. steele Says:

    All that matters at this stage of his career is accuracy when it counts.

  11. Rod Munch Says:

    Jalen Hurts is more accurate than Tom Brady?


    I’m a stats guy, but garbage in, garbage out – and clearly someone is getting some bad data somewhere.

  12. Buczilla Says:

    It’s hard, if not impossible to argue with the raw data, but this does lead me to believe that accuracy is insanely overrated. Brady was easily the quarterback in the league last year despite having average at best accuracy? Lol, something does not compute.

  13. AnonymousBuc76 Says:


    Yeah Jalen Hurts looked really accurate in the playoffs against us last year (cough BS!)…

    These are the only stats that matters to me…

    comp % – 67.5
    yards – 5,316
    TD – 43
    Int – 12
    QBR – 102.1

  14. AKicknTheBucNuts Says:

    “Then again, raw data doesn’t lie.”

    7 Superbowls.

    Check your stats.

  15. August 1976 Buc Says:

    Well lets take a look at 2 years of Regular season and post season combined.
    This is legendary, just flat ridiculous.

    In 2 years of TB12 in Tampa
    1 Lombardi Trophy
    11,610 yards
    96 TD’s
    29-10 W/L

    lol and this is 43 and 44 years old.

    That is one of the best stat lines ever in the storied history of the NFL
    Fire those cannons!!!!!

    GO BUCS!!!!!

  16. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Live by the stats alone… die by the stats
    A lot of Brady’s 2019 Patriots down year stats led to his becoming a free agent.
    Bucs had injuries at receiver last year which affects timing of routes and chemistry.
    Stats always have to be considered within context of other variable factors.

  17. Anonymous Says:

    I question the algorithims being used to interpret the raw data.
    That is someone’s interpretation and absolutely open to something that can be argued. Two different people can have different interpretations and place different importance/weighting on different pieces of data.

  18. Tackleblockwin Says:

    If he has three passing downs in a row I only need him to be accurate for 10 yards or more on one of them. The other two are just warm ups, as us older folks would say.

  19. Irishmist Says:

    Brady does tend to be a little low when he throws over the middle. And his throws on the out routes tend to be a little outside. But you could argue that he does that to minimize the risk of interceptions. Is he really inaccurate if he’s doing it on purpose?

  20. Allen Lofton Says:

    Stats are for losers not winners – focusing on stats don’t win games like the G.O.A.T.

  21. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Ya he sucks! The guy threw over 700 passes last year of course he going to miss. Let’s not forget at the end of the season who he was throwing to. He relies on the wr to adjust the way he sees it, that does not always happen. This has been an ongoing problem with Evan’s. Brady also takes very few sacks, he would rather throw it away to avoid loss of yardage and obviously pain. This is a ridiculous stat. I didn’t look at the list but I’ll bet Burrows is ranked higher yet took 51 sacks.

  22. geno711 Says:

    Seems like Brady, Josh Allen, and Mahomes were throwing the ball away.

    That effected their simple completion rate on this chart. However, please note that Tampa, Buffalo, and KC allowed the fewest sacks last year.

    Another example of looking deeply into all the stats matter, not just looking at some of the stats.

  23. PSK Bucs Fan Says:

    I don’t buy the infallibility of Next Gen Stats. Sensors provide a variety if data that require algorithms to correlate various data points to come up with a conclusion. How fast one guy runs maybe unquestionable only their sensors no algorithm needed, but accuracy may be quite contrived.

  24. Daryl Green Says:

    This site got u fans worried about Tom😂🤣😂🤣
    Guy has seven fn rings. PERIOD.

  25. Steve Gaudreau Says:

    Data schmata, they can all have the accuracy they want but they don’t have the rings. Did they measure clutch accuracy? Because that’s where it counts. Rogers, Brees, Peyton sppffft!! Even with those three combined Brady had more rings.

  26. Mason Says:

    One thing not considered is the amount of times Brady purposefully throws the ball away. He’s throwing accurately right to where he intends but the stats would likely show a miss or register as an inaccuracy. Take those intended throwaway passes to avoid a turnover from the dataset and I’d be willing to bet that his ranking goes way up.

  27. admin Says:

    One thing not considered is the amount of times Brady purposefully throws the ball away.

    Now THAT’S a helluva point!