If History Is A Guide, Bucs Season-Win Total Is Easy Money

June 7th, 2022

Key wagering stat.

As usual, Joe will head to the Mirage in Las Vegas this summer, perhaps for the final time. (since MGM sold the place, Joe’s MGM Rewards points won’t work there much longer). And among the many recreational activities Joe will partake in will be dropping cash on season-win totals in the NFL and college football.

Joe learned from BSPN that a Tom Brady-led team has not gone under its projected season-win total since 2009. Per BetMGM, the Bucs are currently are over/under 11.5. So if history repeats itself, the Bucs will have at least 12 wins.

BSPN betting analyst Eric Moody believes the wagering siren is singing loudly for the Bucs.

I’d trust the Buccaneers. This is easily the most talented team in their division, and after the NFC lost some key players elsewhere this offseason, Tampa Bay should be the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Besides the NFC South, the Buccaneers also face the NFC West and the AFC North, which are not easy matchups, but I believe this is a team that could win 14 games in 2022.

Here are a couple of things that give Joe pause on betting the over. The early season schedule is tough. Sean McVay has lost to the Bucs just once in the past three years and the slimy Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season.

For the Bucs to win the over, they cannot lose more than five games. Three games total against the slimy Saints and the Rams could be two losses right there. So if they drop two of those three, they’d have to go at least 11-3 the rest of their schedule including the AFC North and the rest of the dicey NFC West, plus their “17th game” is against the Chiefs.

That’s challenging!

Is it smart to trust the Brady gods?

13 Responses to “If History Is A Guide, Bucs Season-Win Total Is Easy Money”

  1. Bird Says:

    Bucs have lost 10 games the last 2 years (including playoffs last year)

    7 of those games were to the rams and saints
    Thats just crazy : 4 to saints and 3 to rams

    Maybe we should have a different game plan for those 2 teams 😂
    Do the opposite ? 😂

    The schedule is brutal but dont forget. Some teams lost some key guys like chiefs, cowboys and packers just to name a few . And saints dont have the best offensive playcaller in the nfl anymore. Although the saints roster is loaded like ours.

    Should be a fun season if we can stay healthy. Thats the difference between 2020 and 2021

  2. Leighroy Says:

    Past performance is not always a predictor of future results, or else the Lightning would have been easy money last Friday coming off a loss. If anything the law of numbers says that as the sample size grows the results tend to regress back to the mean (in layman’s terms).

    Maybe the better bet is on the under? I’m still confident the Bucs make the playoffs as the division winner either way. Look around at the NFC south QBs, now that is some easy money!

  3. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    I think we may just figure out how to beat the Saints this year…….Rams aren’t as good……most of our tough competition is at home….I think 12 is just about right.

  4. Chris Tucker@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    I agree with the 12

  5. CleanHouse Says:

    How are we favored to go to the Super Bowl? Does anyone else agree with this?

  6. Goatfarmer Says:

    I think it’s 11 wins. Bowles will blow at least one game, the defensive backfield will not know their assignments early and that tough schedule will bite.

    Still, 11-6 qualifies for the playoffs and then who knows, if Todd blitzes Matthew Stafford again and refuses to game plan for Cooper Kupp in crucial moments, what could happen?

  7. Mike C Says:

    Clean House, go be a Debbie Downer somewhere else, YES we are legit contenders for the Bowl, We have Brady. But no amount of convincing will work on your Neverending Negative Attitude.

  8. Stone crab sam Says:

    It depends on the health of the team at the start of season.
    Weather they sign suh.
    I’m saying if we stack up a fearsome threesome-foursome dl;
    I’d say we win 12+
    If no, it’s anyones guess. With that schedule….
    The Bucs are going to need all hands on deck.

  9. ocala Says:

    Brady has won 11 or more games the last 12 seasons in a row.


    If point spreads were out right now for the entire season. The Bucs would most likely be favored in every game this season.
    I like the Bucs chances of winning more than 11.5 games

  10. Goatfarmer Says:

    aTom doesn’t play defense, nor does he call the defense. Defense is where my concerns are.

    Pass rush?

    Depth behind LVD and Diva White?

    Secondary continually, chronically missing assignments, blowing coverages, and missing tackles. And Whitehead, the best tackler, is now a Jet.

  11. PSL Bob Says:

    Fortuitously, the Bucs-Rams divisional game was on the NFL channel last night. I feel good about our chances against the Rams this year. I also think we’ll pull the plug on the Saints’ regular season winning record against the Bucs. Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees and their receiving core is much weaker than ours. I’ll take Brady our WR group against Winston and theirs any day of the week.

  12. WVBuc Says:

    This preseason speculation is an extreme improvement from last summer’s undefeated rhetoric. Bringing everyone back last season created a nearly impossible expectation among fans and players. The inevitable loss came so early that I believe it set a depressed tone over much of the season. The team truly expected themselves to be historically great.

    This season the expectations are on being a great team, getting the best record they can for playoff positioning and then making the run at the Super Bowl. They know, accept, there will be ups and downs and have the mental outlook that I believe suits the chase for another Lombardi Trophy perfectly. It’s a tough thing to do and they’re at least beginning by leading with the best foot forward.

  13. Craig Says:

    I don’t think the start will be that tough.

    Jameis is going to need at least four games to get his groove back. Look for 8-12 interceptions early.

    Mahomes is always a slow starter. Look at last season.

    Dallas is always ranked higher at the beginning of the season than at the end. Some kind of fatal flaw in their game.

    Bucs will start the season 3-1, end at 13-4, if they don’t hit the doldrums at mid-season.