Trade Winner

May 7th, 2022


It’s almost like lovebugs in May, when the NFL draft comes, you can just about bank on this one thing:

Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht will make a trade in the draft. Sometimes he will trade up. Sometimes he will trade back, like in 2018 when he traded back in the first round with Buffalo. One of the two second-round picks he acquired was used to trade with the Belicheats, and that pick eventually became Carlton Davis and Jordan Whitehead — starters on a Super Bowl-winning defense.

Now that trade is hard to top.

But numbers guy Seth Welder of BSPN, really liked how Licht traded out of the first round last week and then picked what should be two starters for a long time. That would be rookies Logan Hall and Luke Goedeke, who Licht traded up with Buffalo to acquire in Round 2, using one of the picks from Jacksonville.

The trade: Jaguars receive pick No. 27; Buccaneers receive picks Nos. 33, 106 and 180
Value winner: Buccaneers (acquired 5.3 chart points, gave up 3.7)
Surplus value: Late third-round pick

This trade was particularly tough for Jacksonville (or strong for Tampa Bay, depending on your perspective) because of the two picks made before it.

Yesterday Joe mentioned that Football Outsiders‘ Mike Tanier referred to this trade as “shrewd.”

39 Responses to “Trade Winner”

  1. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    That was an excellent trade with little risk for us because most of the players we targeted were not only still there, but would also very probably BE there as well. So, we got some extra picks!
    Goedeke looks like he will be a starting guard, and of course Logan Hall will certainly be in the starting rotation.
    A Great job by Licht, IMHO

  2. Crickett Baker Says:

    Gratz on the traffic!

  3. SB~LV Says:


  4. August 1976 Buc Says:

    So Joe your telling us that your bills are paid right lol
    Congrats to the Joe’s and all involved.
    As I stated in 2020, IMO this is the best place I have found for daily Bucs news.

    I can remember as a kid in the 70’s we lived on Madeira Beach, my parents would get the St Petersburg Times delivered. I would dig out the sports section to read about the Bucs and also back then in St Pete area, there was an afternoon daily called “The Evening Independent”. Both were good, but it is way better now with Joe Bucs Fan, or other news too at our fingertips anywhere on the planet if you have internet. Congrats again to the Joe’s and all involved.


  5. adam from ny Says:

    reality is, ever since mr. licht dropped off that burgundy sports coat at goodwill, he’s been completely on fire…

    we can not deny the facts 😉


  6. Defense Rules Says:

    ‘Used to being on top, but believe this is a first month that we’ve topped the others combined.’

    Very cool Joes. If you’re not lead dog, the scenery never changes.

  7. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Then again, Devin Lloyd or Devonte Wyatt could be future HOF’s that got away…
    Ya never know until 3-4 years after the draft…

  8. No Risk It No Biscuit Says:

    Joe, you can thank…. El Bucco Realisto and NDOG for creating a nice foundation of traffic during the lost decade. You owe them a case of Bromosas. lol

    Good Job Joes!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    The Buffalo trade netted MJ Stewart & Carlton Davis as additional 2nd round picks…….WHitehead was a 4th round pick.

    I do like the trade in 22…….but I don’t like the trade up for Goedeke giving up the top pick in the 6th……

  10. Jbeachbuc Says:

    Awesome traffic… and we’ll deserved!

  11. Smashsquatch Says:

    Impressive dominance from the Joes. Dedicated, dependable, insightful and intuitive, suceess finds those who put the work in. It doesn’t hurt to have a winning formula either. Bravo 👏

  12. Buczilla Says:

    LOL, you Joes are kicking everyone’s a$$.

    We’ll know in four years or less who really won this trade and I hope it’s us despite my disillusionment with our draft this year.

  13. lambchop Says:

    More than the players involved, we saved a HUGE chunk of Glazer loot by not drafting in the 1st round. That is the biggest advantage, apart from getting one of the 5 people the Bucs wanted with that first pick.

  14. lambchop Says:

    Huge chunk in relation to our cap situation.

  15. BucsFanSince1976 Says:

    Goedeke was a huge reach-Projected by everyone to be a 3rd or 4th rounder-Bucs take him at 58 in the 2nd. Devin Lloyd was the best LB in the draft and would have started on Day 1 next to LVD and replaced him right soon. When you can pick the best player in a position group where you have need and you pass , that is just foolish nonsense. Licht should have one of his fingers chopped off for picking a FREAKING KICKER OR PUNTER. Draft was a C minus at best.

  16. BUCman Says:

    According to the NFL draft trade chart the 27th pick we traded was worth 680 points. The 33rd pick was worth 580 points, the 106th pick was worth 82 points, and the 180th pick was worth 17.8 points for a total of 679.8 points that we received. So the trade was dead even from that standpoint. There was no surplus value. The trade up from 60 to 57 we gave up the 180th pick worth 17.8 points and gained 30 points in the move so a very minimal gain of 12 points there. Overall I wouldn’t label this as shrewd. Saying we gained two starters because of this trade is misleading. We most certainly would have gained the same by picking at 27 & 60. I’m not being a hater here. Just stating the facts and keeping it real. Jason Licht made a choice to move back some and move up some and that’s fine but by no means did he pull of some great hiest. I personally was hugely disappointed when they passed on Davante Wyatt so please forgive me for not loving the trade down.

  17. Defense Rules Says:

    lambchop … ‘More than the players involved, we saved a HUGE chunk of Glazer loot by not drafting in the 1st round.’

    Not sure I understand the rationale. Picking in Rnd 1, particularly early in that round, SHOULD mean that (1) you’re getting one of the better players available; and (2) that you can sign him to a 5th-year option that almost always ends up being less expensive than signing him to an expensive 2nd contract in year 5.

    Use Devin White as the example. His 5th year option cost the Bucs $11.7mil. Certainly not cheap, but probably CHEAPER than what he’ll be making each year of his 2nd contract. Way back in 2019, Kwon signed a 4-year 2nd contract with the 49ers for $54 mil ($13.5 mil/year average). White will more than likely make more than that.

    Vea is another example. It cost the Bucs $7.6 mil to pick up his 5th-year option. After that he signed a 4-year 2nd contract worth $71 mil ($17.8 mil/year). Looks like we saved $10 mil in year 5 by picking up his 5th-year option.

  18. Beeej Says:

    Wyatt MAY turn into an all-pro, equally likely there will be a video of him kicking someone’s door down and dragging some woman down the street by her hair

  19. Goatfarmer Says:

    Congrats on the traffic, Joes. Well done.

  20. BUCman Says:

    Lambchop……. It’s actually not true that we saved a HUGE chunk of money with the trade down. Since we ended up with extra picks our rookie salary payout is going to be more than it would have been had we stuck with our original 6 picks. And I agree with “defense rules” that you have to figure in that we lost the fifth year option by trading down. That could cost us later.

  21. Wade Landry Says:

    Brady makes front office look smarter…I ❤️Vita…. But in that exchange bills got josh Allen…..of course we had j-mess,so the success rate during current front office is what compared to the rest of the league?…..better yet congrats to the Joe’s…and thank you for all the excellent articles….I ❤️All of our other buc sites but you are the best❤️✌🏽✊🏾🙏…

  22. 1#bucsfan Says:

    Keep up the good work joe. If you weren’t doing such a fine job you wouldn’t be on top. Keep pumping out those articles for junkie Bucs fans like me. The trade for mason I feel like doesn’t get enough credit. Let’s go Bucs

  23. Jason Says:

    Just curious, but is Joe still persona non grata at Wdae? Apparently being on radio isn’t really helping the competition lol.

  24. Bucs Guy Says:

    Liked the trade out of the first round.
    Didn’t like the trade up in the second round.
    Loved the Shaq Mason trade for a 5th round pick.
    Loved trading back into the 5th for a CB.
    Liked trading from the 7th into the 6th.
    4 out of 5 is pretty good most anywhere.

  25. Jbucsfan Says:

    I hear the debate between it being better to take some in round 1 and get the fifth year option being better than round 2 and not having that option. Shouldn’t you also take into account how much the first 4 years of the two contacts are worth into consideration and not just how much is saved on the fifth year alone? Obviously having the option saves on year 5 with the examples from above, but I’m sure the first 4 years of a first round contract are much more costly than the first 4 of a second round contract. I think for what we had to work with this year as far as original draft capital going into the draft and the right salary cap situation and the holes we had on the roster that it was the right move to trade down. Maybe we didn’t get Wyatt like allot of people wanted, but we got to te otton it of it and still got a good dl at the same time. It looks like Wyatt might have been more dominant coming out of college year one but he had off field problems/character issues. Taking everything in as a whole I think licht did a good job. I was a little thrown by the rb pick in the third I thought we would take a db there or maybe an edge guy but I watched the tape on the rb and he looks impressive and very different running style than Lenny so I’m excited to see him. It sounds like we got a quality group of young men as far as mentality wise that also look like they can help us now and in the future

  26. Jbucsfan Says:

    We did good for what we had to work with in draft capital and the cap room left…. The first round trade back was good
    The second round trade up I don’t think was necessary, I think he still wouldve been there without trading up
    The rb in the third was surprising but after watching his tape he looks like a real weapon for us and a great compliment to Lenny running style
    I loved the otton pick in round 4 and the McCollum pick we traded for in round 5
    Good pick in round 6 that guy seems like a best of a blocker
    Idk about the round 7 pick but it’s round 7 not much left to pick from

  27. Jbucsfan Says:

    Not to mention the original round 5 pick we traded for a better guard than the one we had last year!! You have to take that into consideration as well…. We didn’t pick many of the big names that were being talked about all month leading up to the draft, but I trust that the front office knows what they are doing and they drafted some really good players that for in the locker room and will help plug some of the holes we had on our roster

  28. Tony Says:

    Tampabaybucfan Says:
    May 7th, 2022 at 6:52 am
    The Buffalo trade netted MJ Stewart & Carlton Davis as additional 2nd round picks…….WHitehead was a 4th round pick.

    I do like the trade in 22…….but I don’t like the trade up for Goedeke giving up the top pick in the 6th

    Yep that’s why I would never trade up & give up the extra picks. I’d trade down as much as possible & yeah for some reason it’s like they’re in love with players that have serious injuries.

    JACK CICHY (already retired)
    CHAPELLE RUSSELL (not there anymore)

    I’m sure there might be a couple others I’m missing.

  29. Tony Says:

    Sometimes I wonder if they’d actually be better off with no draft picks though. This way Licht can’t screw anything up.

  30. Tony Says:

    Whenever Brady does decide to retire they really should have him become the new GM & replace Licht. If all we have to do is just put a suit on & go in & draft & sign players then yeah sign me up.

  31. BucsBeBack (Artist formally known as: BringBucsBack) Says:

    As we all know, the accurate results of this draft won’t come for a few years. However, we can judge it based on quality and draft position. According to many, the Bucs apparently reached on every single pick, save for maybe one; the cornerback in the sixth round. These guys clearly fall in love with players and target them, quite the opposite from selecting the best player available. Licht and everyone who is not on the field is greatly overrated, always!

    Congrats Joes on being Tampa Bay’s greatest enabler!

  32. GOB Says:

    Defense Rules makes a great point. The difference between talent of a late first rounder and an early two, should be negligible. The savings in money are significant.

  33. PassingThru Says:

    This year’s draft was only 20 or so players deep with “true” first round talent, and even then some of those players are destined to be busts. The next tier was very deep, fully stocked with kids who delayed coming out earlier due to the health crisis.

    That means there were two directions for Licht:

    1. Trading out of the first round and into the second, and perhaps picking up a 3rd rounder (give or take some spare change), or

    2. Trading up to grab one of those first 15 or so players. This would have been a very expensive proposition since every GM and their grandmother knew how shallow the “true” first-round pool was. This isn’t a guess, just look at how much the Saints paid to move up a few measly places (16th to 11th) in the first: NO surrendered the 16th, 98th, and 120th picks. Ouch.

    Licht pulled off the right move. The value was really cashing out and picking up talent, even if it was somewhat raw.

  34. GOB Says:

    Passing, I agree with your general premise. But, a running back and a punter? I don’t have a problem drafting either position. Licht severely reached on both picks. You can get a quality at those positions much later in the draft. I think Licht outsmarted himself.

  35. BigMacAttack Says:

    Congratulations Joes, that’s really cool. I remember when you have 10 visits a day and I was 3 of those 😂

  36. RicanBucs Says:

    Been with u from the start. Traffic is well deserved. Content is the draw. Keep hit’em

  37. MadMax Says:

    @bucsfan76, youre a real piece of work….how about i chop your head off…..lets meet….get back to me

  38. Defy9Ordinary Says:

    Way to go Joes!! As far as the draft & Licht go, I think trading down from the 1st was rather shrewd, but it appears he may have reached on a couple picks? But whom am I to say, certainly not a NFL GM. I think it was either Jimmy Johnson to Belichick or v/v that said, “The draft is a crap shoot.” Well, I’m glad somehow it worked out that the Buccaneers now have that 2001′ 6th Round 199th pick in their clubhouse #LFG

  39. Defy9Ordinary Says:

    Correction, 2000′ Sixth round, 199th, draft pick, #EyesOn8