Value In The Draft

April 23rd, 2022

Top 10.

Pretty cool statistical analysis of draft value by the BSPN crowd.

The Disney outfit decided to do a statistical look at each team’s draft the past 10 years. Their numerical mumbo-jumbo placed a points total on each team’s most valuable draft pick and worst pick for each draft.

The Bucs finished ranked No. 9. And of course, current Bucs AC/DC-loving general manager Jason Licht began running the draft in 2014. Below are the most/least valuable picks chosen by BSPN each year:

Best Value
2012: Lavonte David
2013: Will Gholston
2014: Mike Evans
2015: Kwon Alexander
2016: Caleb Benenoch
2017: Chris Godwin
2018: Alex Cappa
2019: Devin White
2020: Tristan Wirfs
2021: K.J. Britt

Worst Value
2012: Michael Smith
2013: Johnthan Banks
2014: Austin Seferian-Jackwagon
2015: Kenny Bell
2016: Noah Spence
2017: Justin Evans
2018: M.J. Stewart
2019: Terry Beckner
2020: Ke’Shawn Vaughn
2021: Kyle Trask

A few thoughts: If a seventh-round pick like Terry Beckner is being picked on, that’s a helluva draft. Joe is convinced to this day lousy Lovie Smith ruined Johnthan Banks. And Ke’Shawn Vaughn the worst value? That’s a helluva draft as well, if that is the case. (Considering the Bucs’ sixth-round pick and two seventh-rounders were released, that’s a rough call on Vaughn.)

Lavonte David, who is a borderline Hall of Famer, in the second round was superior value.

Think about this: The Bucs had the 25th-worst record in the NFL during this period 69-92, yet per BSPN they finished No. 9 in draft value. Also, Tampa Bay just had its best two-year stretch of victories (29) in franchise history that included a Super Bowl win. That should tell you all you need to know about how important coaching (or the lack thereof) is to a football team.

44 Responses to “Value In The Draft”

  1. Kentucky Buc Says:

    Yeah, but “Have you seen Juniors grades”

  2. Oneilbuc Says:

    Lol he put Trask name on the list and he haven’t even played yet 🤣. I hope Trask situation ends up like a Bret Farve situation and watch all you Trask haters cry just like the Falcons fan base did when Bret Farve became a hall of fame quarterback and they had him on their roster and didn’t know it . You better wait and see what he has before you start your narratives against Trask.

  3. dmatt Says:

    Are u serious, Caleb Benenoch over Ryan Smith? Ryan consistently balled out on special teams. Caleb couldn’t block the fat lady singing.😝

  4. Kalind Says:

    How in gods name is Aguayo not on that list.

  5. Joe Says:

    How in gods name is Aguayo not on that list.

    Aguayo actually scored points. Won a game too (though still hard to believe). Kenny Bell was a total washout.

  6. Mike28277 Says:

    Mumbo jumbo: Exactly. Kentucky–nice VH reference.

  7. Joe Says:

    Yeah, but “Have you seen Juniors grades”


  8. Chris@Apple Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    Now that is a name from the past Austin Seferian-Jackwagon.;
    It is said his nickname in College was Austin Rastafarian-Jenkins, because he was such a Pot Head.

  9. SB~LV Says:

    Noah Spence would be in his NFL prime!
    That was a very strange chapter in Bucs history

  10. Bobby M. Says:

    The Giants are going to unload their roster, interesting to see if we make a play for Toney. He would upgrade our depth and give us a return game

  11. Anonymous Says:

    Where is the 2nd round Kicker?

  12. BillyBucco Says:

    Where is the 2nd rounder kicker on this list?

  13. SOEbuc Says:

    Lavonte David is not borderline HOF. It’s just he played in that baby sh!t franchise almost his entire career and still put up HOF numbers. Our TV maps would be central Florida and wherever the other teams were located. Bucs were a ghost that people saw going 5-11 every year.

    Favorite Buc all time.

  14. Steven007 Says:

    David’s numbers align well with someone like keuchly and even Brooks in some regard. Hopefully he has a couple more good years to add to his current totals.

  15. Red-sparrow Says:

    No it shows the importance of an elite quarterback Joe. That’s what it shows. The Bucs will be good as long as they have an elite quarterback on a team friendly deal regardless of the coach. Who knows, maybe Trask can become that elite quarterback for the Bucs fans.

  16. Allbuccedup Says:

    Joe I am grappling with the statement good coaching has produced 29 victories or lack of bad coaching I would say good coaching or Tom Brady would be more accurate.

  17. Joe Says:

    Joe I am grappling with the statement good coaching has produced 29 victories or lack of bad coaching I would say good coaching or Tom Brady would be more accurate.

    Tom Brady sure helped. No doubt. But look who he was throwing to and who gave him clean pockets. Virtually all Bucs draft picks. Who made some of the biggest plays in the playoffs in 2020? Bucs draft picks. Someone had to be coaching those guys up.

    What was Shaq Barrett before he came to Tampa Bay? Playoff Kenny damn near got cut before coaches found a way to motivate him.

    Coaching matters.

  18. Allbuccedup Says:

    I am not denying that but Brady was instrumental in bringing a lot of players to this team who would have never came here. Shaq had a great year because of JPP. Whos that Kenny player?

  19. Allbuccedup Says:

    Whomever Licht picks in the draft I just hope its better than last years.

  20. An Erection for Sacks Says:

    @Joe: Playoff Kenny?

  21. Joe Says:

    Joe is guessing no one ever typed on an iPhone and had a typo as a result? smh

  22. Allbuccedup Says:

    The new york “football” giants are looking to trade Kadarius Toney former Gator receiver. If the Bucs are in on Trask next he was Kyles receiver in college. Trade them Darden and our 7th round picks for him
    He played only 10 games and caught more passes than Johnson

  23. Steven007 Says:

    Allbucc, I would do that trade in a second. Have a feeling they’re looking for more.

  24. Steven007 Says:

    Also I will heretofore refer to Lenny as playoff Kenny. Why not? Kind of funny. And The name Lenny usually reminds me of some old guy.

  25. Bucsfan4ever Says:

    Hey, guys, maybe we shouldn’t trash Trask just yet
    Like Joe was saying about Brady thirty posts ago: Brady had recievers and a line ECT.
    Trask had guys who needed both hands and an open zipper to count to three. Guys that would flip your burgers and wash your car by September.

  26. Bucsfan4ever Says:

    Shoot, with all the steroids some of them can’t count to three anymore.

  27. Bucsfan4ever Says:

    And Justin Evans was very promising till he got injured.

  28. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Glad to see the recognition of Will Gholston…….a 4th round pick who has had a long, solid career…..steady and productive…..

  29. Cobraboy Says:

    @SB~LV: Spence never recovered from his first separated shoulder. Very sad, he had potential…

  30. rrsrq Says:

    @allbuc, catching more passes than Johnson that had AB, CG, ME and Gronk, that is not a criteria, everyone else gets limited targets

  31. GOB Says:

    Too bad they couldn’t find a value QB. It seems to me, the bucs have almost always had talent on the roster. You can’t pick in the top 15 year in year out, and not aquire talent. The missing piece was always QB.

  32. Pickgrin Says:

    2014 – HOFer Mike Evans. Thats all we got that year – but boy what a 1st pick Jason Licht made to start his GM career.

    2015 – Finding a talent like Alexander in the 4th WAS great “value” – but I like Ali Marpet in the late 2nd as the biggest value to the Buccaneers. Donnie at the top of the 2nd turned out to be a very good selection as well obviously.

    2016 – Man that was a bad draft……..

    2017 – Howard, Evans and McPlaybook were all swings and misses. JL kicked ass in the 3rd round though landing Godwin and then trading up for Beckwith. Still feel bad for Beckwith and the Bucs – what could have been……

    2018 – I think Davis in the late 2nd and Whitehead in the 4th were both better “value” picks for the Bucs than Cappa was in the 3rd…. Vita Vea at #12 was pretty good value as well I think. The trade down allowed the Bucs to load up on talent that year. Great draft! Of course we could have had Josh Allen for his career if we hadn’t traded down – but the previous investment in Winston with the #1 overall pick meant that was never going to happen…..

    2019 – Hard to call an inside LBer (even a good one) at #5 overall a “best value” pick. Jamel Dean in the late 3rd is much better “value” IMO – and SMB near the top of the 2nd rd was more worthy of “worst value” than a throw away 7th round pick. You expect a solid starting outside CB when selecting in the 30s – and SMB is not that…..

    2020 – Wirfs and Winfield Jr – say no more……

    2021 – Too soon to judge. JTS with the last pick in the 1st round may well have been excellent value. Time will tell. If Trask becomes a capable starting QB – then snagging him at the end of the 2nd would also turn out to be excellent “value”. If Hansey becomes a starter on the OL at any point – then he becomes good value in the 3rd as well.

  33. Marine Buc Says:

    Sorry Joe.

    I disagree agree about the R. Aguayo pick.

    Not only did we waste – completely wasted – a second round pick.

    We also traded a third round pick in order to move back into the second round to draft Roberto.

    So this flame out cost us a second and a third round pick.

    Come on man!!!

  34. HC Grover Says:

    Draft is so ‘next year’. A crap shoot. Trade em all for proven healthy vets who can play right now.

  35. JimbobBucsFan Says:

    I saw no red flags waived concerning Austin Seferian-Jenkins before the draft in any paper media or online media that year. Everything indicated he was a superior talent with great expectations. The failure was a lack of thoroughness by the scouting staff. He turned out to be a serious alcoholic. I don’t blame Licht for the bust.

    Coaching decisions? Aguayo had no competition for the kicking job under Dirk Koetter. Of course it is unknown whether any competition would have made a difference psychologically. Competition for all positions is the norm, however. Licht might have waited till the next round at least before pulling the trigger. Licht gambled and lost.

    Current evaluation of Trask is bogus. Kyle Trask is reputed by many as expected to be taken first or second among QBs had he been in this year’s draft. We will see what we have in him soon enough from the end of May through August. Licht is mature as a GM now and has better support around him.

  36. Allbuccedup Says:

    Steven007 if the Bucs are all in this year trade Darden and our 7th pick and a conditional pick in 2023 based on Toney performance.

  37. Craig Says:

    Hargreaves was worse than Noah Spence. I think Spence was just stuck in the wrong style of defense with an inflexible coach.

    Square peg in a round hole.

    How can you judge Trask when no one has seen what he can do. Its like they think that he sucks because he hasn’t force Brady out of the game. Duh.

  38. David Says:

    Way too soon to rank Britt, Vaughn, and Trask.

  39. SufferingSince76 Says:

    They aren’t trading Trask, so y’all can stop that nonsense, too.

  40. Marine Buc Says:

    @ Craig

    They were both busts with the Bucs.

    What did Noah Spence do since leaving Tampa?

    I hear crickets chirping…

    Same can be said for VH3.

    I expect 1st and 2nd round picks to be solid starters for 4-5 years (at minimum).

  41. An Erection for Sacks Says:

    “Joe Says:
    April 23rd, 2022 at 12:04 pm
    Joe is guessing no one ever typed on an iPhone and had a typo as a result? smh”

    Simply put, Joe, your standard is typically quite high, and as a result, we’ve become accustomed to a lack of errors. Also, you’ve touted your journalism credentials regularly, and that factors in, too.
    Pedantic as it may seem, typos are errors that shape the readers’ opinion of the author. I was always taught that it is impossible to proofread too much. While that may be an exaggeration, the principle remains.
    Look… you know better than anyone how often I visit this site, so you know that I’m a fan, but no one is above criticism.

    “Steven007 Says:
    April 23rd, 2022 at 12:21 pm
    Also I will heretofore refer to Lenny as playoff Kenny.”


  42. Infomeplease Says:

    It also tells you to about the quality of the team’s QB!!! Jameis could throw the ball down field,but too often to the other team. Josh Freeman showed promise until he took about 30 too many hits (not much of an offensive line in front of him) and became a vegetable!! The rest were at best good backups!! Then we have TB12… The rest is history!!! IMO!!!

  43. BUCman Says:

    Ridiculous!! Put a special teams player (KJ Britt) as best pick of 2021 and a developing future QB1 (Kyle Trask) as worst pick of 2021. What was this based on….. number of plays on the field? Obviously there was no consideration into a player being properly developed and groomed for the future. Was Trey Lance considered the worst pick for San Francisco? How was KJ Britt better than JTS as a draft pick. JTS also was being developed properly to take over this year full-time. Yeah, Ridiculous!!

  44. Joe Says:

    What was this based on

    All detailed in the link.