Strength Vs. Strength

December 11th, 2021

Owns Buffalo.

Yes, Tom Brady owns Atlanta with a 10-0 record against the Dixie Chicks. Against the Bucs’ opponent tomorrow, Brady’s record is even crazier.

Brady has a 32-3 record against Buffalo. He engineers one of the most dangerous big-play offenses in the NFL. Maybe the biggest. But Ben Elsner of The 33rd Team thinks that will not be enough for Brady and the Bucs.

Elsner, using advanced stats as his guide, believes the Bills, who are the best team at shutting down opponents’ big plays, will bottle up the Bucs and leave Tampa tomorrow night with a win.

One of the biggest matchups of the weekend has the Buccaneers favored over the Bills but the BPI gives the slight edge to the Bills. Despite both offenses being prolific, the BPI suspects this game will come down to the Bills ability to stop the big play against the Buccaneers ability to do the same. The Bills are the league’s best defense at stopping big plays, allowing the least big passes for, which is the strength of the Buccaneers defense. While the Bills will face their long time boogeyman in Tom Brady in a different uniform, the BPI suggests a win for Buffalo.

Well, Elsner may be onto something — provided the Bucs try to beat the Bills with the long ball.

Joe doesn’t expect that. The Bills, in two of their last three games, have been destroyed by the run game, giving up over 200 yards on the ground in losses to the Colts and to the Belicheats.

Joe just has a hunch the Bucs are going to try to play ground-and-pound tomorrow. Buffalo is playing on a short week. They are beat up. Starlite Lotulelei, their starting defensive tackle, is out.

And with tomorrow expected to be hot and humid, pounding an already soft run defense will have the Bills dragging arse big time in the fourth quarter. And the Bucs can rotate Ronald Jones out with Playoff Lenny to keep both fresh.

To pull this off the Bucs’ pass defense has to be good to keep the score close. If Buffalo gets a big lead, bye-bye run game.

12 Responses to “Strength Vs. Strength”

  1. Bird Says:

    Yah that sounds good

    We will run the ball. No question

    Bills are without their best db and bucs playing at home
    Brady will throw it. Hurry up.

    Cause bills will score. We are not there yet on defense
    Both teams will score
    Who have we stopped on d? Crap teams dont matter
    Champions score. Brady knows where to go
    The blizzard game means nothing

    Love to see us score 35

  2. TomBrady_converted bucs fan Says:

    Ton Brady has nothing on Tom Brady though 🤣

  3. Tackleblockwin Says:

    Ton a touchdowns!

  4. Medicated Pete Says:

    Won ton soup is ton Brady’s favorite cheat meal

  5. Stone crab sam Says:

    Nothing better than 2 pounds of large stonies , a rum runner, and an afternoon of buc football staring Tom brady. It don’t get any better than that! Cant wait.

  6. adam from ny Says:

    i think the bucs and bowles are going to pull a superbowl vs the chiefs type game plan out their hats vs the bills on sunday…

    shut down hogwash josh allen’s production and win the game…


  7. Mr Bean Says:

    Just looked up the 32-3 stat of Brady vs the Bills. It is even more crazy as one of the losses was game 17 of 2014 when New England had secured seeding and pulled starters including Brady.

  8. Defense Rules Says:

    Bucs #1 ranked offense has only faced 2 Top-10 defenses this season, and we won both of those. But they weren’t typical wins by any means.

    Beat the Patriots 19-17 by winning the Turnover Battle (2-0) and the TOP Battle (34-26). Offense didn’t capitalize on either of our 2 takeaways, and won by scoring 1 TD plus 4 FGs. Ran the ball effectively 30 times for 120 yds (41% run-pass) against the Pats #1 ranked defense. Not a typical Bucs victory.

    Beat the Colts 38-31 by handily winning the Turnover Battle (5-2) and broke even on the TOP Battle. Offense capitalized big-time on the defense’s takeaways, scoring 3 TDs on those takeaways. Ran the ball effectively 27 times for 142 yds (43% run-pass) against the Colts #10 ranked defense. Again, not a typical Bucs victory.

    And yet both of those victories were very similar in terms of the game strategies we used in last year’s playoffs (more BALANCED attack) which helped us to either win or break-even at least in the TOP Battle. In both we won the Turnover Battle handily. Seems like it’d be reasonable to expect us to do something very similar against the Bills #2 ranked defense. Personally expect a game similar to the Colts game, with the winner being the one who best capitalizes on turnovers.

  9. Listnfrmafar Says:

    Joe, your last paragraph says it all. To pull this off the Pat’s pass defense has to be good and they’re not. DR is correct, Bucs need to win the TOP and like what other teams try to do with the Bucs, keep Brady off the field, IMO Bucs.need to keep Allen off the field. Keep in d Pat’s had one great series of running and a 64 yd td run, it’s not like Indy that ran it down Bill’s throat. Bucs are going to need to mix it up because the Bill’s are coming out throwing.

  10. Jmarkbuc Says:

    Is Rojo gonna be good to go…?

    Or more first quarter “illness”

  11. Beeej Says:

    I’m all for running….just not up the gut on first down. Brady might as well just holler to the D what we’re gonna do. Outside of 1980’s Redskins with Riggins, Joe Jacoby and Russ Grimm running the the counter-trey, noone has had success telegraphing what they’re gonna do

  12. captivajim Says:

    Bills have almost No running game –Allen himself id the biggest part of their run offense…. We need good pass rush & JTS would be best spy on Allen..

    Bills were beaten by Titans ,Colts ,and Pats –as those teams ran the ball.. Fournette & Rojo should have good game..If Bills load the box to stop the run –that should open up the middle for CG and Gronk.

    Will be Hi scoring game; BUCS win at home 42-38