Bucs Are 11-0 When Leonard Fournette Gets 12 Or More Carries
November 20th, 2021
The football world is littered with all kinds of ridiculous stats.
Most are the result of numerical gymnastics designed to sell subscriptions, generate website clicks or feed the egos of data nerds who often forget the game is played by humans.
Perhaps the following is one of those ridiculous stats, but Joe doesn’t think so. The Bucs are a stunning 11-0 when Leonard “Playoff Lenny” Fournette gets 12 or more carries in a game.
In those 11 games, Fournette has a whopping 174 rushes for 825 yards and 11 touchdowns. That’s 4.74 yards per carry and a stunning one TD per game.
There are many reasons why a team wins. Handing off a dozen or more times to the same guy is no guaranteed formula for victory. But with the modern era Bucs, it’s a distinct pattern of success — for the team and the player. The Bucs are 10-8 when Fournette does not hit that magic number of carries.
Perhaps this is why Sage JoeBucsFan.com columnist Ira Kaufman is so obsessed with the Bucs having a balanced offense every time they take the field.
November 20th, 2021 at 7:55 pm
Great, then the Bucs win… if you’re into superficial stats.
Fournette is asked to carry the ball 12 or more times when:
1. The defense has shown itself to be weak against the run
2. The Bucs are winning by multiple scores in the fourth, and they’re using the clock to kill the opponent.
November 20th, 2021 at 7:58 pm
Boron’s Leftwurst might be astute and take note.
#BucsSuck
November 20th, 2021 at 8:06 pm
Swampbuc: You have “troll” written all over you.
November 20th, 2021 at 8:39 pm
Not surprised at all, and don’t think it’s a meaningless statistic.
Arians and Leftwichs biggest weakness is throwing way too much.
This stat will be 12-0 come Monday night. Guaranteed.
November 20th, 2021 at 8:45 pm
Doesnt matter….we suck! Cant get out our own gddmn way…playoffs? haha, not at this rate WE SUCK!
November 20th, 2021 at 8:49 pm
F it, it’s not like we are on a winning streak or anything. Let’s go for 13!
November 20th, 2021 at 8:57 pm
Can’t have 13 losses, mathematically impossible.
But 11 losses is do-able.
November 20th, 2021 at 9:35 pm
I was wondering if those carries are because we are ahead and trying to run down the clock an wear out the defense. Last year I felt we were a better running team than this year. I felt more balanced on offense last year.
November 20th, 2021 at 9:36 pm
Lol, 13 carries dude, not losses. Despite looking pathetic the last two games we aren’t that bad.
November 20th, 2021 at 9:43 pm
Zilla — LOL. It’s my reverse – psychology superstition at work. No worries!
November 20th, 2021 at 9:44 pm
What about that factoid prompted so much negativism? Bucs have won every single game we’ve played in 2020 & 2021 in which our run-pass ratio was more than 40%. Since our average number of plays per game has been 64-65, that just means that we win when we run it 25 or more times per game on average. So Lenny getting half of those (12) isn’t anything that should be shocking.
Last season BTW we only ran it more than 40% run-pass in TWO games in the regular season (Packers & Vikings); won them both. Interestingly we ran it more than 40% run-pass in THREE of the 4 playoff game & won them all.
This season we’ve run the ball more than 40% run-pass in only THREE games (Pats, Eagles, Bears). We won all 3.
So obviously Ira’s right. Get the ‘balance’ up to more than 40% run-pass and we’re guaranteed a win. Or not.
November 20th, 2021 at 9:48 pm
Right on Defense Rules.
November 20th, 2021 at 9:56 pm
Oh, we’ll make the playoffs.
We’ll get some corners and AB back.
We’re within range for bye week.
We have Giants and indy and foolcans on deck.
We need all 3 of them and a few lucky losses to get back on top.
This Sunday root for the Vikings, Chiefs, and Seahawks.
November 20th, 2021 at 11:00 pm
Byron, let me introduce you a new concept called play-action… hear me out…you run to then fake the run and throw the ball. I know, wild huh?
November 20th, 2021 at 11:42 pm
FrankPillow — stop with your radical ideas!
November 20th, 2021 at 11:44 pm
Oh please, if the answer to winning was as simple as handing the ball to the Fournette 12 times, you think the coaching staff wouldn’t know it? This coaching staff is rather average by NFL standards, which means they aren’t stupid.
Giving Fournette the ball 4 more times wouldn’t have beaten the Saints.
Giving Fournette the ball 1 more time wouldn’t have beaten Washington.
And giving Fournette the ball 12 times is supposed to be “analysis”? It’s a statistical artifact. The Bucs hand off the ball more when they’re already ahead and in control of the game, geniuses.
November 20th, 2021 at 11:53 pm
Orlando — also cheer for Washington (Panthers) and Philadelphia (Saints).
That way we can still make the playoffs while losing a bunch more games,
November 21st, 2021 at 12:04 am
The crazy part of that stat is that 12 isn’t even that high of a number. He should be getting at least 12 runs in every game. I’d like to see the stat showing his and the teams rush attempts by half. Seems like we always give up on the run, even when its working.
Actually I just looked, Lenny is averaging just over 12 carries per game, and 4.33 YPC. Thats the same YPC as Derrick Henry and way more than Kamara. But they are getting 26 and 18 attempts per game, respectively
November 21st, 2021 at 12:55 am
Swampbuc, will do.
Long live the Eagles and WTFs???
November 21st, 2021 at 1:30 am
Swampbuc Says:
November 20th, 2021 at 11:42 pm
FrankPillow — stop with your radical ideas!
ROFL
November 21st, 2021 at 1:57 am
To phrase it differently: the Bucs hand the ball off the Lenny at least 12 times a game when they’re leading and want to salt it away. Cause and effect.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:09 am
As PR loves to point out, the Bucs are undefeated when Blaine Gabbert plays.
November 21st, 2021 at 6:46 am
The Bucs are also undefeated when they score more points than their opponents
November 21st, 2021 at 7:34 am
I would like to see that stat with ROjO with 12 carries or more per game in the TB12 era
November 21st, 2021 at 9:59 am
only called 7 play action calls against WSH, jesus christ wth is wrong with the coaching
November 21st, 2021 at 10:27 am
Duh.
I’ve been saying this all year.
Same thing when RoJo has 12 or more carries: undefeated.
So WTF?!?!?
November 21st, 2021 at 10:27 am
@rrsq- it’s the same, they are undefeated.
November 22nd, 2021 at 12:35 pm
Correlation is not causation.
We win easily when we turn TB12 loose early, get a lead, THEN pound the ball on the ground late in the game. Some balance is needed of course and running sets up play action (which we don’t utilize enough), but our best players play QB and WR –> throw early and often, score touchdowns, get a big lead, THEN run the ball more.
November 22nd, 2021 at 1:39 pm
Two words….PLAY ACTION ! Sure TB12 is second in the league in gettig the ball out quick, BUT…give him more time with play action and think what he could do with our receiving core. Also, we really need AB back ! He adds a whole extra dimension with his speed and route running and…TB12 trusts him.