Bucs Are 11-0 When Leonard Fournette Gets 12 Or More Carries

November 20th, 2021

The football world is littered with all kinds of ridiculous stats.

Most are the result of numerical gymnastics designed to sell subscriptions, generate website clicks or feed the egos of data nerds who often forget the game is played by humans.

Perhaps the following is one of those ridiculous stats, but Joe doesn’t think so. The Bucs are a stunning 11-0 when Leonard “Playoff Lenny” Fournette gets 12 or more carries in a game.

In those 11 games, Fournette has a whopping 174 rushes for 825 yards and 11 touchdowns. That’s 4.74 yards per carry and a stunning one TD per game.

There are many reasons why a team wins. Handing off a dozen or more times to the same guy is no guaranteed formula for victory. But with the modern era Bucs, it’s a distinct pattern of success — for the team and the player. The Bucs are 10-8 when Fournette does not hit that magic number of carries.

Perhaps this is why Sage JoeBucsFan.com columnist Ira Kaufman is so obsessed with the Bucs having a balanced offense every time they take the field.

29 Responses to “Bucs Are 11-0 When Leonard Fournette Gets 12 Or More Carries”

  1. PassingThru Says:

    Great, then the Bucs win… if you’re into superficial stats.

    Fournette is asked to carry the ball 12 or more times when:

    1. The defense has shown itself to be weak against the run

    2. The Bucs are winning by multiple scores in the fourth, and they’re using the clock to kill the opponent.

  2. Swampbuc Says:

    Boron’s Leftwurst might be astute and take note.


  3. Joe in Michigan Says:

    Swampbuc: You have “troll” written all over you.

  4. Jordan Says:

    Not surprised at all, and don’t think it’s a meaningless statistic.

    Arians and Leftwichs biggest weakness is throwing way too much.

    This stat will be 12-0 come Monday night. Guaranteed.

  5. MadMax Says:

    Doesnt matter….we suck! Cant get out our own gddmn way…playoffs? haha, not at this rate WE SUCK!

  6. Buczilla Says:

    F it, it’s not like we are on a winning streak or anything. Let’s go for 13!

  7. Swampbuc Says:

    Can’t have 13 losses, mathematically impossible.

    But 11 losses is do-able.

  8. Thisisouryear!! Says:

    I was wondering if those carries are because we are ahead and trying to run down the clock an wear out the defense. Last year I felt we were a better running team than this year. I felt more balanced on offense last year.

  9. Buczilla Says:

    Lol, 13 carries dude, not losses. Despite looking pathetic the last two games we aren’t that bad.

  10. Swampbuc Says:

    Zilla — LOL. It’s my reverse – psychology superstition at work. No worries!

  11. Defense Rules Says:

    What about that factoid prompted so much negativism? Bucs have won every single game we’ve played in 2020 & 2021 in which our run-pass ratio was more than 40%. Since our average number of plays per game has been 64-65, that just means that we win when we run it 25 or more times per game on average. So Lenny getting half of those (12) isn’t anything that should be shocking.

    Last season BTW we only ran it more than 40% run-pass in TWO games in the regular season (Packers & Vikings); won them both. Interestingly we ran it more than 40% run-pass in THREE of the 4 playoff game & won them all.

    This season we’ve run the ball more than 40% run-pass in only THREE games (Pats, Eagles, Bears). We won all 3.

    So obviously Ira’s right. Get the ‘balance’ up to more than 40% run-pass and we’re guaranteed a win. Or not.

  12. Swampbuc Says:

    Right on Defense Rules.

  13. Orlandobucsfan#1 Says:

    Oh, we’ll make the playoffs.
    We’ll get some corners and AB back.
    We’re within range for bye week.
    We have Giants and indy and foolcans on deck.
    We need all 3 of them and a few lucky losses to get back on top.
    This Sunday root for the Vikings, Chiefs, and Seahawks.

  14. FrankPillow Says:

    Byron, let me introduce you a new concept called play-action… hear me out…you run to then fake the run and throw the ball. I know, wild huh?

  15. Swampbuc Says:

    FrankPillow — stop with your radical ideas!

  16. PassingThru Says:

    Oh please, if the answer to winning was as simple as handing the ball to the Fournette 12 times, you think the coaching staff wouldn’t know it? This coaching staff is rather average by NFL standards, which means they aren’t stupid.

    Giving Fournette the ball 4 more times wouldn’t have beaten the Saints.

    Giving Fournette the ball 1 more time wouldn’t have beaten Washington.

    And giving Fournette the ball 12 times is supposed to be “analysis”? It’s a statistical artifact. The Bucs hand off the ball more when they’re already ahead and in control of the game, geniuses.

  17. Swampbuc Says:

    Orlando — also cheer for Washington (Panthers) and Philadelphia (Saints).

    That way we can still make the playoffs while losing a bunch more games,

  18. Sparky Says:

    The crazy part of that stat is that 12 isn’t even that high of a number. He should be getting at least 12 runs in every game. I’d like to see the stat showing his and the teams rush attempts by half. Seems like we always give up on the run, even when its working.
    Actually I just looked, Lenny is averaging just over 12 carries per game, and 4.33 YPC. Thats the same YPC as Derrick Henry and way more than Kamara. But they are getting 26 and 18 attempts per game, respectively

  19. Orlandobucsfan#1 Says:

    Swampbuc, will do.
    Long live the Eagles and WTFs???

  20. Buczilla Says:

    Swampbuc Says:
    November 20th, 2021 at 11:42 pm
    FrankPillow — stop with your radical ideas!


  21. HomerSimpsonRocks Says:

    To phrase it differently: the Bucs hand the ball off the Lenny at least 12 times a game when they’re leading and want to salt it away. Cause and effect.

  22. Stanglassman Says:

    As PR loves to point out, the Bucs are undefeated when Blaine Gabbert plays.

  23. B-Bro Says:

    The Bucs are also undefeated when they score more points than their opponents

  24. rrsrq Says:

    I would like to see that stat with ROjO with 12 carries or more per game in the TB12 era

  25. chaingang Says:

    only called 7 play action calls against WSH, jesus christ wth is wrong with the coaching

  26. unbelievable Says:


    I’ve been saying this all year.

    Same thing when RoJo has 12 or more carries: undefeated.

    So WTF?!?!?

  27. unbelievable Says:

    @rrsq- it’s the same, they are undefeated.

  28. Parnell Dickinson's ghost Says:

    Correlation is not causation.

    We win easily when we turn TB12 loose early, get a lead, THEN pound the ball on the ground late in the game. Some balance is needed of course and running sets up play action (which we don’t utilize enough), but our best players play QB and WR –> throw early and often, score touchdowns, get a big lead, THEN run the ball more.

  29. Ontario Mike Says:

    Two words….PLAY ACTION ! Sure TB12 is second in the league in gettig the ball out quick, BUT…give him more time with play action and think what he could do with our receiving core. Also, we really need AB back ! He adds a whole extra dimension with his speed and route running and…TB12 trusts him.