Will The Luck Continue?

July 22nd, 2021

Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians

Joe doesn’t think it is irresponsible to suggest a champion has a little bit of Lady Luck on its side while standing alone on the mountaintop.

And one statistical observer believes that luck with the Bucs was a lack of injuries.

Thomas Bassinger, typing for the 2021 Football Outsiders Almanac, documents the Bucs were not just lucky with injuries, they bucked a trend in the NFL that saw last years’ average games lost to injury per roster rise.

… … That could be a testament to the team’s conditioning and medical staffs. Youth also could have been a factor, as well as just plain luck. The Buccaneers didn’t go unscathed—they lost [Vita] Vea for three months and right guard Alex Cappa for most of the playoffs—but they didn’t experience injuries to the degree that other teams did.

In a season in which we saw a record average of 83.2 adjusted games lost per team, Tampa Bay actually saw a decline. In 2019, the Bucs suffered 39.5 adjusted games lost, second-fewest; in 2020, they suffered a league-low 30.6.

Of course, Bassinger is not factoring in the bum knee of park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, handshake-stiffing, jet-ski-losing, biscuit-baking, tequila-shooting, smartphone-phobic, waffle-grilling, trophy-throwing, roller-coaster-scared, numbers-rules-peeved, Bucs-Super Bowl-winning quarterback Tom Brady.

That was a major bullet missed.

But yeah, Bassinger is onto something. The Bucs — especially on the offensive line — have been beyond lucky with injuries.

Joe remembers back in 2003 how injuries to Mike Alstott, Joe Jurevicius and John Lynch all but wrecked the franchise’s first title defense.

(Yes, Lynch only missed two games. When he left with an injury against the Colts on Monday Night Football, Peyton Manning roasted Jermaine Phillips, in an ugly fourth-quarter collapse the team never recovered from, losing in overtime.)

Let’s cross our fingers the injury bug stays away from One Buc Palace again this fall.

20 Responses to “Will The Luck Continue?”

  1. Beeej Says:

    Argh, I remember that MNF nightmare like it was yesterday

  2. Casual Observer Says:

    That’s why we have the depth we have. Pretty good group assembled by the front office. They are about as ready as they can be with this roster – imo.

  3. Hodad Says:

    We had a group already, now we just added two good rookies that will make depth, and competition even better.

  4. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We do have excellent depth….except for QB & CB….perhaps Dline….but we are good at Oline, RB, TE, WR……

  5. Medicated Pete Says:

    To bring about a ghastly fulfillment of the biblical prophecy that doom is inevitable is looking like the defeated. Tom Brady doesn’t think like that

  6. Tampabuscsbro Says:

    Bassinger doesn’t factor in brady because the man is a brady hater. I am pretty sure he hated every single minute of having to cover the bucs before he was canned.

    Dude spent all season last year ripping on the bucs on twitter then was dead silent after they beat the saints.

  7. Ben green Says:

    Luck isn’t just involved, it’s instrumental. Major injuries are coming, it’s just statistics. O lines don’t stay healthy for two years in a row, it just doesn’t happen. Brady needs excellent protection at this stage. Anything short, and he drives the ball at someone’s feet, or chucks it up. I hope I’m wrong, but the odds are not in the bucs favor

  8. D-Rok Says:

    Perhaps luck was indeed a factor, and perhaps the Bucs have an excellent strength and conditioning program? Just thinking out loud….GO BUCS!!

  9. Bird Says:

    Reverse jinx

    Lets not talk about injuries to certain players

  10. SufferingSince76 Says:

    It also helped that Vita Vea got some help from the Tom Brady way of rehabbing.

  11. Bojim Says:

    Plus the fact that there wasn’t much of a trading camp, preseason games etc

  12. gotbbucs Says:

    Ahh, the old “it takes luck to win in the NFL” arguement.

    Somehow the ball just always seems to bounce in Tome Brady’s way then because that guy is the ultimate debunker of this silly argument. He’s played for 20 years and been in the Super Bowl 50% of all those seasons.

    Basically, you either have to have a true franchise QB or be epically lucky in any given year to make it far in the playoffs in today’s NFL.

  13. crazybucs_CL Says:

    @Will The Luck Continue?
    ..maybe! Too many variables worked in symphony last year. Can happen again? …mathematically ABSOLUTLY! Probability based on statistics is not very promising, though. That means repeating “the LUCK” is not very common.
    Is like winning the lottery twice; Wednesday and Saturday; but in the same time all the numbers are there, so they can be picked AGAIN.
    With other words “the Luck” part, is not guarantee, the human variables from the other side,… I think will be there, and maybe stronger then last year…. 🤞👍

  14. Leighroy Says:

    Thanks for dredging up the memory of Tim Wansley trying(?) to cover Marvin Harrison

  15. BucsFanSince1976 Says:

    An interesting query by Joe to a top level exec at Bucland would be how many of your players are unvaccinated? The NFL just announced if there is a Covid outbreak on your team involving unvaccinated players that causes a need to reschedule said game , that if said game cannot be rescheduled , said team with the outbreak would then forfeit that game(whether it was regular or post season).
    ENOUGH is about FREAKING ENOUGH – get your damn vaccine.
    Well, it’s hard to believe a game could not be rescheduled considering every single one was rescheduled last year. Hard to believe the NFL will refund many millions to a TV network. And there’s the reality that 40 percent of the current roster will be cut by Sept. 1. So Joe can’t say that information is relevant, especially considering it could be considered old news a day later. And some guys may not be vaccinated because they’re in a post-virus window that says don’t get poked. –Joe

  16. CJ Says:

    Hello Joe,

    I thought it was Brian Kelly that got injured that game and Tim Wansley was the one who got roasted, I could be wrong though. Either way it was a rough night lol I was there.

  17. SlyPirate Says:

    Doesn’t BA make it a point to take it easier on guys during practice?

    Letting player bodies recover could also play role in a healthier season.

  18. Bbro Says:

    It helps having a qb that will use everyone so no one player gets pounded every game.

  19. 941Boltsfan Says:

    Let’s not forget AQ’s playing career like its not a big deal.

  20. Craig Says:

    It certainly helps when you have QB who is decisive and dumps the ball pretty quickly. That saves the O-line a lot of grief.

    The accuracy of that QB also saves the receivers, most are hit in stride and that takes a lot of the awkwardness out of the tackle.

    On defense, the line saves a lot of wear and tear on the DBs. When the opposing QB only has 2.4 seconds to get the ball out the DBs don’t get really tired and sloppy.

    I do believe in luck, mostly bad luck, but a team can make some of its own luck.