Holiday Season May Not Be Merry

June 28th, 2021

Where are the speed bumps?

You have been warned: This data comes from Cynthia Frelund’s hard drive.

The NFL Network’s resident stat geek — she doesn’t look like a stat geek — went through the NFC South schedules to determine each team’s toughest four-game stretch.

For the Bucs, it will be the same time folks are finding ways to spend money all under the guise of being merry during the holidays.

Frelund’s “model” — she never discusses talent vs. talent, it’s always numbers and models and projections — tells her the Bucs’ toughest four-game stretch is Weeks 12-15.

(The fact Frelund never discusses talent vs. talent or physical mismatches is why Joe is convinced she doesn’t watch games. Some of the stuff she misses is obvious to anyone who watches games. You know, like the Bucs had the league’s worst secondary entering last season — per her models.)

If Frelund’s projection (ahem) comes true, it scares Joe. Why is that?

Joe is a firm believer that a later bye week is better for a team — fresher legs down the stretch. Joe is totally convinced the late Bucs bye last year (Week 13) is a direct reason why the Bucs won the Super Bowl. They had fresher legs on defense than everyone else.

And in the past four seasons, the earliest bye of a Super Bowl winner was Week 10 (2017 Eagles).

Remember the Bucs played four extra games last season. That also means four fewer weeks of recovery. The Bucs aren’t exactly young in certain positions. Injuries crop up on fatigued and older bodies.

Simply put, when one starts adding things up, it seems ripe the Bucs may wear down in December. This is just when Frelund believes the Bucs hit the toughest patch of their schedule.

One Response to “Holiday Season May Not Be Merry”

  1. Joe Says:

    Sigh. People just cannot control themselves with dumb comments and calling people slurs. So, away they go. #Sad