Interesting Statistical Data In The Draft

April 20th, 2021

Bit of a surprise for Bucs ILB.

This is cool data and may explain some things for Bucs fans when the smoke clears in two weeks after the draft is over.

Ben Elsner of Mike Tannenbaum’s outfit, The 33rd Team, decided to use’s “Approximate Value” (AV) numbers, which calculate the value of a player using all sort of hocus pocus. And that determines the value of positions and where the best/worst first-round picks were selected. The study was conducted for players drafted from 2012-2019.

First, it shows the most valuable drafted players overall by position. Now guess which position Elsner, by way of Pro-Football-Reference, identified for players drafted in those eight years.

Quarterback? No, but close. Quarterback was No. 2.

The most valuable position drafted from 2012-2019 is defensive end (So can you find a spot in your heart to give Joe a pass for always begging for a pass rusher? It seems Joe is on to something.).

Then, Elsner decided, using the same average AV stat, to determine who was the biggest home run drafted at a specific draft slot in the first round, and who was the biggest underperformer from 2012 to 2019. The Bucs have a representative each in both categories.

The best player drafted at No. 5 from 2012-2019? Bucs linebacker Devin White.

The worst draft pick selected at No. 19 from 2012-2019? Elsner claims it was a tie between Bucs tight end O.J. Howard and current Texans defensive end Shaq Lawson.

(“Shaq, Joe would like to introduce to you, your new defensive coordinator, Lovie Smith. Lovie? This is Shaq.”)

Yes, Joe knows Bucs Super Bowl-winning coach Bucco Bruce Arians said Howard was one of his most improved players last season until Howard blew out is Achilles.

Again, Elsner used’s average “AV” stat.

Charts below courtesy of The33rdTeam.

18 Responses to “Interesting Statistical Data In The Draft”

  1. lambchop Says:

    Tom Brady will make the Juice relevant. OJ just needs to stay healthy and I also believe having Gronk around proves to be a huge difference in how OJ handles being a pro. I’m pretty sure everyone in the Bucs organization hear the chatter of naysayers hounding on OJ.

    Watch and see, OJ will prove to be a huge headache for defenses. I hope all our TEs learn to be better blockers as well.

  2. Medicated Pete Says:

    We thought we “STOLE” OJ b/c he somehow amazingly dropped into our lap.

  3. SOEbuc Says:

    Healthy OJ will come back ballin with Tom. Especially if we don’t resign AB. We have the best red zone attack in the NFL.

  4. westernbuc Says:

    Everyone keeps talking about Pitts but all I can think of is OJ

  5. Bucs Guy Says:

    This is a prove it yeat for OJ. He may gone next year. Gronk only has a year or two left. That’s why Brate is still here. He may not be flashy, but he’s consistent and available.

  6. Leighroy Says:

    If Blake Bortles is the best that the #3 pick has produced, all I have to say to that is “yikes!”

    Also check out that 3rd list at 22…..heeerrrrreee’s Johnny!

  7. Beeej Says:

    Until last year our team didn’t make use of the tight end

  8. Bird Says:

    That list is garbage

    Goff at 1
    Wentz at 2
    Bortles at 3

    That is laughable

  9. bucfanforever Says:

    That’s funny, more value out of the 4th pick than the 2nd. When the Jets somehow bungle whichever QB they take this year, it will stay true.

  10. Señor Harry in Costa Rica Says:

    Dwyane Haskins: “0”

    Haskins reminds me of Jamarcus Russell and what a waste the both are; immaturity to an incomprehensible level. Is there a score below “0”?

  11. Mike Says:

    OJ was definitely on his way before he got hurt. Defenses could not contain him. If he can get healthy, he will be a weapon for Brady.

  12. Topdoggie Says:

    That stat is useless if the consider someone a bust because of injury. Brady missed a year because of injury. Could have been a career ending one. Mist injuries are a coin flip issue of luck.

  13. David Says:

    It seemed like OJ Howard was going to bust out. Unfortunately, he’s been injured a lot.
    If he can stay healthy this year with Brady, I think he has a big year

  14. David Says:

    As for Devin White, seems like an awfully small sample size to rate him that highly. Don’t get me wrong, I think he is a beast and will be a Hall of Famer but I’d like to know what the competition was the last decade at that slot

  15. Cainishere Says:

    OJ has proven that he is fragile. That’s it. Gifted hands though.

  16. Cainishere Says:

    When my nephew stood at the 2019 draft podium and announced that the Bucs were picking Devin I knew we had a winner.

  17. “That guy” Says:

    The stats are skewed big time, how is it possible to rate players on production when the sample shows a spread of 7 years. That’s an entire career for some nfl players. I bet you give some (not all) of these 2019 picks 3 more years and they don’t make the worst/best performers lists here.

  18. Doctor Stroud Says:

    So, in other words, it’s possible for the Bucs to draft a Lamar Jackson or a David Wilson at #32.