Playoff Percentages

November 20th, 2020

Just by judging various models (no, not *that* kind), it seems as we stand just days before Thanksgiving and hours before the Bucs play their 11th game of the season, there’s a damn good chance the Bucs will play a meaningful football game in January.

John Breech used software designed and/or bought by CBS to run the numbers on the Bucs’ chances of a playoff berth.

Unless the Buccaneers have a total meltdown, the computer sees them landing in the fifth spot and that’s because they don’t have a great shot of winning the division (17.5% chance), but the computer does view them as a near lock to make the postseason (84.6% chance).

Joe also checked PlayoffStatus.com. It has the Bucs with an 86 percent chance of a playoff berth, a 54 percent chance of getting to the second round and a 13 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

FootballOutsiders.com is a bit more kind. They have the Bucs with a 94.4 percent shot of the playoffs.

The website FiveThirtyEight.com, which is a full-blown numbers site, isn’t as kind, with the Bucs’ shot at 87 percent.

All in all, on the last Friday before Thanksgiving, most data is very bullish on the Bucs making the playoffs.

17 Responses to “Playoff Percentages”

  1. Cobraboy Says:

    One’s memory needs to go back no further to the 2008 season to understand what “84.6%” or “94.4%” actually means.

  2. Augsut 1976 Buc Says:

    If they win 1 of the next 2, it is book’em Dano. GO BUCS!!!

  3. Joe Says:

    One’s memory needs to go back no further to the 2008 season to understand what “84.6%” or “94.4%” actually means.

    Boy, isn’t that the truth.

  4. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    We have 3 teams of concern right now and really only 2 because one of the three will win their division…..So, unless someone else creeps into play, we should get in.
    Seattle, LA Rams & Arizona…..and the good news is that they have games against each other like last night.

    A win against the Rams would be huge…..we would take a 1 game lead on them & have the head to head tiebreaker.

    But….we have to focus and win regardless of what other teams do

  5. SlyPirate Says:

    For the Bucs to win the NFCS they only have to be one game better. It’s doable.
    1. Winston’s at the helm, so anything can happen.
    2. Falcons play close games. Winston TOs = Falcons’ win. Same with Denver, in Denver, in November.
    3. Brees will be less than 100% facing KC and surging MIN.

    Don’t write off the NFCS because there is still a good chance the Bucs come out on top.

  6. Casual Observer Says:

    One week at a time.

  7. [email protected] Roof Cleaning Tampa Says:

    “A win against the Rams would be huge…..we would take a 1 game lead on them & have the head to head tiebreaker.”
    Tampabaybucsfan is 100% correct.
    Even though the Rams are not a division opponent, it is highly doubtful we win our division.
    We are playing for the playoffs right now, and you can bet the Rams will also be in the playoff hunt.

  8. ArmchairGM Says:

    Feels good to not be talking about the draft this late in the year.

  9. Swampbuc Says:

    Cobraboy nailed it.

    Thanks, Monte.

  10. Show Me the TDs Says:

    Recycled article. Not one game has been played since the last time this article appeared on JBF.

  11. tickrdr Says:

    If Brees truly has bilateral rib fractures and a pneumothorax, I cannot see him playing in less than SIX weeks, even with the protection from a flak jacket.

    That likely means Jameis, “I just gotta play better”, Winston will be at QB; OR
    Taysom, “I’ve only thrown 18 passes in my career”, Hill will be at QB.

    If the Bucs stay healthy, I like their chances to win the division outright.

    tickrdr

  12. Steven007 Says:

    Tickrdr, Brees was already wearing a flak jacket during sunday’s game. He’ll wear one for the rest of the year regardless now. And he’ll be less than 100% for sure. Which means there will be few intermediate passes and pretty much no deep passes. Will be interesting to see how they do with JW and the gimmick guy at the helm.

  13. Godlovesbucs Says:

    There are 5 teams really playing for 3 wildcard spots. Ill put seattle as the div winner.

    Buccaneers
    Rams
    Cardinals
    Bears
    Vikings

    The cardinals are now 1 game back. The rams are 1/2 game back. Losing to them would not help the chances. Bears are looking bad, but have the tie breaker. Vikings are 4-5 but have a soft schedule coming up (cowboys, panthers, jaguars). If we lose both games against rams and chiefs, that vikings game could be huge. My gut says we are gonna be in along with cardinals and rams, but I wouldnt be suprised if we end up 10-6 and out of it if we lose to the vikings and rams.

  14. Mitch Says:

    Taysom Hill took all of the starter reps at practice today. Anything could happen Sunday but it looks like at least initially JW will be on the bench.

  15. 813bucboi Says:

    1week at a time…

    GO BUCS!!!!

  16. The Red Mirage Says:

    I like talking about these kind of odds versus talking about the odds of getting the number one draft pick.

  17. Anonymous Says:

    So your saying there’s a chance!

 

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