Deep Misfires

November 22nd, 2020

Losing touch on long balls?

Maybe it wasn’t just the wind?

Remember last week in sort-of-windy Charlotte, park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring, down-forgetting, jet ski-losing Bucs quarterback Tom Brady had a couple of overthrows on deep passes. The Bucs sort of waved it off as Brady was just misjudging the wind. And it was windy.

But it seems this has been a developing pattern of late. Here is something to keep an eye on Monday night and through rest of the season.

Joe understands it is very hard to compare what Brady did in his last year in New England with what he is doing with the Bucs.

Different team, different coaches, different offenses, different schedule, different targets. You get the idea.

Joe brings this all up because, as we all know, Father Time is undefeated. Doesn’t matter how much money you have, who you are married to, what your name is, Father Time eventually catches up and taps you on the shoulder.

Last year Brady’s play slid in the second half of the season. Hey, he was 42 then (now 43). Old guys run out of juice quicker. Think 2008 Bucs).

For example, in the Belcheats’ first nine games last year, only twice did Brady complete less than 60 percent of his passes. The final eight games (including a playoff loss), Brady only completed over 60 percent once.

So the Bucs have played 10 games in 2020, but there is a pattern developing with Brady that raises an eyebrow with Joe. As Michael Baca of points out, Brady’s long ball passing in recent games is awful.

Over the last three games, Brady is a mere 1-of-13 on passes of 20 yards or more. … Brady overthrew a wide-open Antonio Brown on a deep post in the first quarter of last Sunday’s 46-23 win over the Carolina Panthers. The misfire didn’t hinder Brady’s day (28-of-39 for 341 yards and three touchdowns) nor did it prevent the Bucs from setting its season-high point total, but the misconnection was a reminder of the team’s infrequent success on deep balls.

And Brady knows this ugly stat.

“It’s definitely something we’ve got to hit,” Brady said of deep shots. “Our guys are doing a great job of getting open down the field and it’s my job to find him and hit him. If you don’t hit them, they’re just long foul balls.

“We had a few of those last game. [If] we take those shots, we’re going to have to be accurate with them and I know our guys are going to come up with them when I give them a good chance to catch the ball.”

So Brady last year began to tail off nine games in. Brady’s slide in long passes this season has started in Game 8.

A fluke? A coincidence? Joe’s not sure but surely will monitor this.

The Bucs offense, Bucco Bruce Arians’ offense, is largely built on throwing deep. If Brady has lost his magic throwing deep balls, what then? Does the offense then morph into a full-blown dink-and-dunk team?

Joe will guess the Bucs did not sign furniture-tossing, bike-throwing Antonio Brown to catch look-in passes.

18 Responses to “Deep Misfires”

  1. meh Says:

    Gotta do better if you’re going to take these shots, but I’m a lot happier with him overthrowing them instead of underthrowing them. The alternative is picks instead of misses.

  2. Bob in Valrico Says:

    My initial thought after seeing that pass, was better wait till he gets his arm limbered up before we go deep.

  3. Defense Rules Says:

    Tom Brady was brought in here to WIN, not to validate Bruce Arians’ ‘Bombs Away’ philosophy. We did that in 2019, accumulated lots of yardage, and it earned us a losing record. Sean Payton figured out several years ago that Drew Brees’ long ball wasn’t nearly as effective as his short stuff, and parlayed that into consistent winning seasons. Hmmm, he ‘adapted’. BA (and BL) need to adapt in a similar fashion for us to be of any consequence later in this season. Don’t disregard the deep ball; just use it more selectively.

    Beyond our coaches being more selective in terms of when the deep ball is used, meh is absolutely right that Brady has been overthrowing folks deep almost every time. I’d guess that deep ‘timing’ takes a bit more practice than hooking up on the short stuff; just a guess though. These guys really haven’t practiced together all THAT much this season is another guess.

    Here’s a thought. Be more selective, throw a few less deep passes and RUN THE FRIGGIN BALL MORE.

  4. Jason Says:

    I think maybe it’s taking more effort to throw long than in years past. That is affecting his accuracy on deep balls. Kinda like in golf where the longer your backswing and the harder you try to hit the ball, the less accurate you tend to be.

  5. Scotty in Fat Antonio Says:

    Color me confused. If father time is catching up with him, wouldn’t his supposed “noodle” arm be weaker? Instead of overthrowing, wouldn’t he be underthrowing?

  6. Scotty in Fat Antonio Says:

    And Scotty the speedster hasn’t been playing as much with AB on board. Around game 8?

  7. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    It’s simple…..just like Jameis’s overthrows…..our receivers just aren’t fast enough to catch up to the ball….we need better speed (sarcasm)

  8. Jason Says:

    Can someone please explain how to get your picture in the little box of your comment. Thanks.

  9. Chris L Says:

    Still throws it better than jameis. Also it isn’t like Peyton where the balls were ducks. Brady had been OVER throwing guys. That’s a timing issue, not an arm issue. He’s the best QB we have ever had. Let’s be thankful

  10. Robert Says:

    He overthrows in effort to keep it from defenders just like he throw it low to do so. I’d rather him er on the side of caution to have a miscomplete than a pick. Just my opinion anyway. I could see him overthrowing gronk rumbling down the field….but AB……nah, he has to do it for a reason to some degree, and I think he’d rather have the incomplete than the pick. Give him a 50 yarder to the corner of the end zone like the one to Scotty and he’s on point.

  11. SKBucsfan Says:

    Off topic, but it looks like Jaboo is not starting for the hated Saints. Taysom Hill gets the nod. It looks like the Bucs chances at winning the NFC South has slipped a bit.

  12. Bird Says:

    Yup. Cause you made these same arguments with jameis
    Jameis was gaudy at times but you made sure to say a mixed bag

    Banned in the usa

  13. Augsut 1976 Buc Says:

    SKBucsfan Says:
    November 22nd, 2020 at 8:58 am
    Off topic, but it looks like Jaboo is not starting for the hated Saints. Taysom Hill gets the nod. It looks like the Bucs chances at winning the NFC South has slipped a bit.

    The Gadget man Taysom Hill has thrown like 18 passes in his career, so the jury is out on him as a full time starter. And the way he plays, how long to he gets injured? So Jameis may be playing still. We will see. GO BUCS!!!!!

  14. DoooshLaRue Says:

    Has anyone else noticed that Tommy keeps saying WE when talking about his overthrows?
    Curious if when he does well if he still says WE.
    Pretty sure he does but can’t quite remember.

  15. PSL Bob Says:

    Just like several posters have said, I think his main concern is not to underthrow the ball where it could get picked off. And because of his age, he probably thinks he has to put everything into it to make sure it gets there. Sometimes (or most times), that’s too much. Is he not confident in his own strength? Just a thought.

  16. BucheadEd Says:

    Ok, I’m not saying the long ball is or is not a issue for Brady. I WILL say this. I live in Charlotte (GO BUCS!!) and the wind picked up real hard,REAL fast! I would say, pregame warm up, there was very little wind but around 330pm, the front came through and it got gnarly real quick! It was a topic of conversation around kick off, at the house I was at to watch the game. I see no real issue unless it continues to happen. Don’t make something out of nothing Joe.

  17. stpetebucsfan Says:

    As an old guy myself I take issue with the premise. Yes nobody cheats Father Time but we have several players who probably can play another 3-4 years if they want despite their ages.

    Brady is the exception but let’s face it…he doesn’t play the most violent position and he keeps himself in top commercial shape. I say commercial because he’s literally leveraged his fantastic physical fitness into another money making enterprise. IE He has twice the money making reasons to have a dietician set up his diet and a cook to prepare it. I doubt he cheats that diet much.

    Brady knows his body better than anybody. If his arm needed rest he would take care of it…no bombs in practice and fewer throws.

    Meanwhile JPP…SUH appear to still play at a high level.

    I absolutely do not contend that all three of these players have faded compared to their primes…not that much though. I believe that 90% of some star players is still far better than the NFL average. Any spot you can plug in an above average player is a good thing.

  18. Mike Johnson Says:

    So much for Brady being our Savior. I told you guys last yr he was too old. he can’t throw on the run and pressure flusters him. And I’m betting we do not beat the Chiefs next week. So where does this leave us. Not to worry, the buc players will be home with us sitting on the couch watching the Superbowl in tampa, Stop hoggin the chips brady and get me a beer,