Win Total Projection

September 5th, 2020

She doesn’t look like a stat geek.

On Thursday, Joe was on the “Jeff Cameron Show” on ESPN Tallahassee. There, Joe mentioned that anyone who had the Bucs at over-9.0 in their season-win totals with their short-term investment broker was enjoying life after the Bucs signed Leonard Fournette this week.

Well, if you laid down cash in Vegas with Bucs over-9.0, the only way you would be enjoying life is if NFL Network stat nerd Cynthia Frelund — she doesn’t look like a nerd — was throwing down vodkas with you at the craps table in the Mirage.

That’s because, based on Frelund’s projections, the Bucs will be fortunate to end the 2020 season likely with nine wins. She projects the Bucs with 8.9 wins. (Yeah, Joe knows the NFL doesn’t calculate wins in fractions.)

Frelund explains to some degree her findings in the NFL Network video below.

If the Bucs end up with a .500 record and miss the playoffs, Joe knows one guy who will be screaming to blow up the roster and coaching staff.

31 Responses to “Win Total Projection”

  1. Sport Says:

    She’s gonna have to update the WOPR. Maybe the Fonz could give it an adjustment. I’m thinking more like 11 wins. It’s only a 23.59% difference.

    I feel so much smarter now that I didn’t use a whole number to express wine and losses.

    In BA I Trust!

  2. unbelievable Says:

    LOL, she lists all these reasons our offense will be unstoppable, but then Says only 9 wins?

    Boo this woman. Boo her!!!

  3. Sport Says:

    Wine…Bah! Wins.

    In BA I Trust!

  4. Sport Says:

    UB – exactly right. I’m guessing Lost Dog and Little Bo Peep, who lost his sheep (but not his !!!!!!!!!) were in on the fix.

    In BA I Trust!

  5. REDZONE BA Fan Says:

    8-8. JMHO. Brady will be injured in Game 8 vs Giants – avoiding sack. Joe Judge is under-estimated as a head coach. Bucs will take Giants too lightly.
    Blaine Gabbert will lead Bucs through last 8 games. Uninspiring.

  6. Ftmyersbuc Says:

    She says our defense is crap is the reason. But to be fair I don’t think she ever has any team higher than 11 every year she does these. Also her models don’t take into account that Winston threw 7 touchdowns to the other team, thats 35 points over 16 games is about 2 pts/game. An additional 28 ints and fumbles leading to an average of 3 pts a turnover Is 84 points total. Over 16 gms is about 5 points a game. Grand total of 7 points a game gifted from Winston to the other team.

    2019: 28.1 ppg allowed. 28th in NFL
    2019 (adjusted -5 ppg without Winston) 23.1 ppg – 18th in NFL

    This is higher than Seattle and Houston, both playoff teams.

  7. Crockett69 Says:

    Yeah, boo her in can butt!

  8. REDZONE BA Fan Says:

    @Ftmyersbuc – Am sure “she” was focusing on 2020 Bucs roster for her metrics.

  9. FortMyersDave Says:

    @ REDZONE BA: I think FMYbuc knows that he is just pointing out how metrics can skew everything and you do have to base 2020 on 2019 data and JW did do a number on the Bucs metrics defensively with all those ****ing turnovers. Now if you want the Buc to go 8-8 then you like what she says and if you have them pegged to go 10-6 then you simply brush her off as a stat geek. A lot of people are a bit jealous of the Bucs roster and probably will hype anything that has Brady and the Bucs not succeeding just like people did with the Pats for the past 15 years and the hated Cowgirls for as long as I can remember……

  10. Blue-footed Booby Says:

    I bet the reason she is pessimistic on our Buccaneers chances this season is because Brady turned her down in the past and feels jilted that Brady would choose Gisele over her and had to settle for someone less. Oh wait are we talking about Frelund or Ndog?

  11. REDZONE BA Fan Says:

    Dude -@FortMyersDave – you are all over the place in your response. What is your point??? Stop drinking hard stuff or smoking weed. Hard to follow your unintelligible rant….

  12. Looking At YOU! Says:

    Red zoner, your statements are pretty clear concerning your intentions.


    Let me guess, a Pats fan right.

    Not really sorry for your loss.

    Shouldn’t you go hang out at that sight or did you get run? You got run right.. Kicking Rocks… Or are you T MAXX’s illegitimate children? Is your hair red?


    Why don’t you head on back to the Pats blogs. If you’re good boy, or girl, and you ask REAL NICE with CHERRIES ON TOP, well maybe they’ll let you back in.

    Get the hell out of here TROLL!


    GO BUCS!

  13. Bucsfanman Says:

    Bottom line, the Bucs have not earned the respect. If we were coming off of consecutive 10+ wins seasons, I’d have more to say.
    1st WIN, then get respect.

    Everything always looks good on paper!


  14. adam from ny Says:

    she dead wrong!


  15. adam from ny Says:

    27 tds……lol

    if brady stays healthy he will average at least 2 tds per game
    (32 tds)…

    he has a shot at 35-40…maybe 3 per game which equals 48 tds…

    offensively this team could rival the best in nfl history if everything goes right…

    of course that probably wont happen, but who knows…

    brady could have 5,000 yards 48 tds and 11 ints…it is possible


    4,200 yards 33 tds and 15 ints…who knows…

    she certainly doesn’t know sheeeeeet !

  16. adam from ny Says:

    i’m still staying at:

    11-5 with playoffs…

    no superbowl…

    next year:

    13-4 or 14-3 (i’ve heard we have 1 more regular season game)

    and yes…

    superbowl win !!!

  17. Kobe Faker Says:


    Shaman Kobe Faker performed nonstop 48 hours spiritual ritual to the Gods to recieve the secrets of the 2020 tampa Buccaneers future

    Chicken feet, goat blood, the whole nine yards

    The ouija board screamed out numbers

    10, 3, 2

    #10 – 10 wins and playoffs for the 2020 bucs season

    #3 – 3 times the Bucs and Saints will play each other this season

    #2 – the winning quarterback of the final 3rd game in the playoffs will be wearing the #2 uniform

    The Divne Kobe Faker has spoken

    And it shall be”

    Kobe Faker

  18. SufferingSince76 Says:

    Here’s hoping that all the negativity is bulletin board material for the Bucs!!

  19. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Projections are only good to measure performance afterwards……if a team is projected to have 9 wins & has 7…..that’s poor….and so fourth.

    And, projections are especially meaningless when they come from unworthy sources.

  20. geno711 Says:

    taking a shot at Kobe Faker projections

  21. Topdoggie Says:

    If Brady stays healthy we will win 15 or 16. I just hate having to play Brees without Brady getting at least one preseason game.

  22. Hodad Says:

    Woman should be seen, and not heard! lol

  23. AKicknTheBucNuts Says:

    She’s dead wrong and her nose is too big.

  24. Ndog Says:

    This team should be 13-3 bottom line, that should be the worst they should be this year.

    One lost to the Saints, a loss to the Vikings and a loss to the Chiefs that should be it.

  25. Hodad Says:

    The Vikings are nothing special, we’ll role them too.

  26. Says:

    She is the one who picked the Saints to win in 2018, and said her calculations don’t lie. So let’s prove her wrong!

  27. BA Redzone Says:

    @lookingatyou – me think thou doth protest too much

  28. Ftmyersbuc Says:

    Um besides 1 person the entire defense is back. So her metrics differ the 2020 roster is definitely based off their 2019 performance smh. Winston’s turnovers negatively affected the entire defense in 2019 therefore making her metrics wrong about them. It’s 2020 and 2019’s lead sail has been removed from the pirate ship. Go bucs!!!!

  29. Buczilla Says:

    Gosh, there’s just something about hot, nerdy women…She’s wrong of course, but still smokin’.

  30. BucEmUp Says:

    I dont care what the record is, if this not held in tact through 2021 season its brainless! No preseason games, limited offseason. I dont think that would havppen but only a complete idiot would pull a trigger that prematurely

  31. Carter Young Says:

    Sorry, this is gibberish. Only team Bucs have to worry about is KC. #1 against the run, bye-bye SF, Baltimore, Seattle. Saints, Green Bay are tired. And now with a running game Bucs can win time of possession and keep down KC scores. Most of all though, how can anyone stop these weapons in the red zone?