Bank On Brady

September 1st, 2020

The over on passing yards seems smart.

Park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady will throw for over 4,169 yards this fall.

Therefore, claims a fantasy guy, lay cash on the over.

Mike Clay of BSPN thinks a smart bet would be to wager with your local short-term investment broker if you’re within the borders of a progressive state that allows legal sports action — unlike Florida — to bank on Brady flirting with or exceeding 4,200 yards passing in 2020.

Tom Brady over 4,169.5 pass yards (-110)

Clay: Brady has thrown for at least 4,170 yards in six of his past eight full seasons, falling just short in 2014 (4,109) and 2019 (4,057). He has been more conservative in recent seasons, but he suffered from shaky downfield targets in New England and his average depth of throw has remained in the vicinity of league average. He now heads to an aggressive Bruce Arians offense that has been pass-first during seven of the coach’s past eight seasons. In fact, Arians’ offenses have never ranked lower than 10th in aDOT and eight of his past 10 have finished in the top four. Tampa Bay’s high-volume offense ranked fifth in plays and was the sixth-pass-heaviest in 2019.

Brady will have a much-improved supporting cast in Tampa Bay, led by Mike Evans (top 10 in aDOT five of his six seasons), Chris Godwin (fourth-best RAC at WR in 2019) and Rob Gronkowski (No. 1 TE in aDOT during his past three seasons). Brady’s projection checks in at 4,444 yards.

Joe believes this is as close to a lead pipe lock as you can get, if you believe Brady will stay healthy at 43 years old . Yes, Clay explained the obvious. Brady has a set of weapons like he’s never had before.

But Joe comes at this from a different angle: Running backs.

Joe is not sold (yet) on the Bucs’ running backs. Joe knows of no one other than those who belong to the Cult of Ronald Jones who believe the guy is a top-20 running back. He may be, but nothing Joe has seen from the guy (other than brief flashes) suggests he is an average starting running back.

Does Joe hope RoJo is that guy? Yes! But hope and reality are two far different things.

Joe loves Shady McCoy but at his age he’s more of a (good) pass catcher than runner.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn? From what Joe has seen in training camp, he’s OK but little lot better than the next guy on the depth chart at running back… And please don’t get Joe started on Dare Ogunbowale.

So because the Bucs really don’t threaten anyone at running back, Brady will be throwing. A lot. And with those receivers, if Brady doesn’t get to 4,200, that tells Joe that Brady got hurt and missed games.

13 Responses to “Bank On Brady”

  1. Bucnjim Says:

    Teams last year would crowd the line of scrimmage like a NYC subway during rush hour just begging Winston to throw the ball. Barry Sanders would have had a hard time finding an open lane. Brady would pick you apart doing that so teams will have to losen up against the run. I think you will see large holes opening up while teams sell out to stop Brady.

  2. gp Says:

    Brady chose us for the talent and scheme.
    In my opinion, A healthy Brady will be pushing for the NFL record in passing yards!
    Not so much as a goal as because the yards will be there for the taking!

  3. Paul Says:

    GREAT article JOE! Love the Disrespect to the GOAT.

    Park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady will throw for over 4,169 yards this fall


  4. Big_Bucs Says:

    Honestly I think we may see a balanced offense if BA’s ego and Brady’s ego doesn’t disagree. I think honestly he can at 43 put up Aaron Rodgers numbers from 2019. He will throw for 4000 yards 26 TDs and 4 Ints. However if he goes over 4500 yards there should be a little concern? To me that means we are throwing more and just maybe Tampa is playing from behind and that mean the defense is not protecting the lead. Lets not get to hyped Brady struggles with any defense that has a strong front 7 and those first 6 games will be very interesting to see how he plays with those defensive fronts. If he gets hit he turns into an average QB. So with a rookie RT and a below average LT what will the protection scheme look like? I can see OJ staying in to block alot this season on right or left side.

  5. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    Joe says ” he’s OK but little lot better than the next guy on the depth chart at running back”

    Joe I am confused. What does “little lot better” means? Is Vaughn a little or a lot better than the next guy?

  6. August 1976 Buc Says:

    Lol Brady in this offense is going to stumble into 4170. And finally they will get at least double digit wins for the first time in a decade. A trip to the playoffs and maybe even a shot at the big dance. GO BUCS!!!

  7. Youngbucs Says:

    Why y’all act like the pats have been some dominant run team???? SMH

  8. Gofortheface30 Says:

    “The cult of Ronald Jones,” Dare “idunnowhat.” Come for the articles, stay for the money shot zingers!

  9. ben Says:

    Paul … America’s qb is gone . Joe just fell for the wrong guy for 5 years and must not like Tommy “>))

  10. SB Says:

    Hey Ndog and Cleanhouse!
    What is better? 5,109 yards with 35 turnovers, or 4,444 with less than 15?
    Simple question for most “fans”

  11. SB Says:

    I see that you see the truth.
    Kind of a waste of time making others see it but we still try don’t we? lol

  12. Big_Bucs Says:

    We should all only worry about one stat. That is more W’s than L’S no excuses in 2020. Getting the final wildcard spot is not acceptable. Super Bowl or Bust. Brady can throw for 30 Ints all I care and Tampa wins is all I want.

  13. Buczilla Says:

    I’d take the over in a second if I was into betting. I’d much rather Brady throw for 3,500 yards and Fournette (provided we sign him) and Rojo each get 1000 yards rushing.