Arians Molding Offense For Brady

September 26th, 2020

Bill Belichick with a beard?

Last year the offense was fun as hell to watch. Mr. Entertainment, America’s Quarterback, Pro Bowler Jameis Winston, winged the rock all over the yard, mostly way downfield.

Those days are over for Bucs coach Bucco Bruce Arians.

Earlier this week, former Bucs quarterback Chris Simms swore after watching tape of the Bucs beat the Stinking Panthers, that the Bucs were running a lot of concepts normally run by the Belicheats.

Simms, who spent a year with the Belicheats as an offensive assistant, believes that’s why park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady looked so much more comfortable than in Week 1.

Upon doing a stats dive using NextGen stats, which tracks players using equipment sensors, Seth Walder of BSPN found that Simms wasn’t seeing things.

The Bucs are no longer running routes way downfield as they did for Jameis. Now, the Bucs are running shorter routes that mimic New England, Walder documented.

In other words, Arians has changed his offense.

Last season, with Winston at quarterback, the Bucs’ average pass attempt was more than 10 yards downfield, which was the deepest in the league. Three seconds after the snap, all Tampa route runners — regardless of whether they were targeted — were, on average, 8.5 yards downfield, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

Both of those numbers have dropped substantially in 2020. The Bucs’ average air yards is just over 7 now (20th in the league) and receivers are only 7 yards downfield 3 seconds into a play (24th). That second part is particularly important. In order to see how Arians is adapting to Brady, we ought to consider what all route runners are doing, not just the pass-catchers to whom Brady is throwing.

Upon seeing those numbers, my assumption was that Arians was cutting out vertical routes — like posts, corners and goes — which his receivers ran at the highest rate in the league last season. But that actually wasn’t the case. Tampa is running slightly more vertical routes. There are big changes elsewhere, however.

In 2019, 5% of all of Tampa Bay’s routes were deep outs, according to ESPN route classification based on Next Gen Stats player tracking data, the highest rate for any team. This season, that number has dipped all the way below 1%, the second-lowest rate in the league.

Deep outs aren’t the only route group to drop off in usage: the Bucs have lowered their rate of hook routes (comebacks and curls) from 8% to 5% and dig routes from 5% down to 3%. Those might not sound like big differences, but in total that’s a sizable shift.

So what does Walder say the Bucs’ offense looks like? New England.

Walder calculated all the routes the Bucs have run the first two weeks of the year and compared them to what New England did last year. The difference was one percent. In other words, Arians’ revamped offense appears nearly identical to what New England ran last year.

So Simms wasn’t lying when he said the Bucs offense last Sunday looked a whole lot like New England’s. That’s because, it basically was the New England offense, with New England’s quarterback, too.

51 Responses to “Arians Molding Offense For Brady”

  1. Ndog Says:

    This is disgusting!!? They will make the offense easier for this papered, spolied, selfish QB but asked the player that should be here to make the most difficult throws with a worse oline and worse running game.


    Why change the offense if the QB was the problem?

    The QB was not the problem, the system and situations were the problem and that’s called COACHING FOLKS!!!

    How does if feel to have me proven right AGAIN!!!!!??

  2. Jaymiss Pick6 Again Says:

    Makes perfect sense.

  3. mark2001 Says:

    You mean frustrating as H. Too bad we hadn’t drafted the future HOF’er Johnny Football…then we would have been really entertained. Just as entertaining as Jameis, on and off the field.

  4. Buc1987 Says:

    Ndog…if they’re like me…most of us don’t care what you think anymore.

    It’s always the same old BS…

  5. Youngbucs Says:

    This loser ndog still crying dude get a life you’ll see winston throwing picks again soon enough. But shut up someone said it best you have nothing relevant to say your old news stale and boring!!!!!!

  6. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    A great strategy would be to hold back using the TEs…….and then unleash them all of the sudden in a game…..say, vs Green Bay… a gameplan with heavy TE usage.
    No team would be expecting that.

  7. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    And, for those who are not in favor of this…..what ever happened to molding to take advantage of a player’s strengths…..I thought that was always considered a good thing.

  8. Youngbucs Says:

    Yea let’s not use our brains 2gms compared to a whole year smh. Keep stacking them wins Bucs thts all the Real Fans care about!

  9. 40TDs Says:

    Little puppy dog is upset. Boo whooooo

    Give me Ws over yards and ints.

    Whatever it takes. 12 or 13 wins are coming our way fellows.

    Go Bucs!!!

  10. 40TDs Says:

    By mid October Realisto and his puppy dog will hibernate.

    I will repost then. Lol

    Go Bucs!!!

  11. Youngbucs Says:

    That was not entertaining last year it was torture stats are for losers!!!!!

  12. Buc1987 Says:

    TBBF…it’s only been 2 games and if they are using more of NE’s O like some are suggesting….I’m sure the TE’s will eventually be used. Could depend on the opposing teams D too. What they’re doing and all that…

  13. OneBuc55 Says:

    NDog you’re my Buc brother and I love your passion but it’s time to let it go homey…

    No body was a bigger fan of Jameis than me but his carelessness with the football really hurt this football team… Everything around him wasn’t perfect but Winston refusal to utilize his checkdowns, his tendency to take unnecessary risks, and just his out right bone-headed play at times really put our defense in alot of bad situations. It also made him hard to coach and ultimately lead to the reason the Bucs turned the page on him…

    I’m not all that excited about having a 43 year old QB either but I trust Tom to manage the game and keep us in better down and distance situations than Winston did…It’s not as fun to watch but it’s alot easier on the heart that’s for sure….

  14. Topdoggie Says:

    If you hover over ndogs name it shows that the email is jwinston@gmail so Jamis hows the weather in New Orleans?

  15. Youngbucs Says:

    Bet the players in locker room didn’t think it was entertaining joe how about that. We trying to win all this other talk is fluff keep winning watch this stuff disappear just wait.

  16. BigHog Says:

    [Enough. You’re out. Your racebaiting has gone far enough. — Joe]

  17. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    New England has proven to be a winner for quite a long time. Why break something that works. Better to mimic than to come up with something new.

    I really don’t care how we win. Just along as we do win.

  18. AlabamaBucsFan Says:

    Just one point that does not make sense to me concerning Joe’s article. It hard to believe that the Bucs offense is like New England when we barely use our TE in the passing game.

  19. Bush's Coke Spoon Says:

    Photo caption: “Bill Belichick with a beard?”

    Nope! I finally figured out who he reminds me of. It’s the South Park Santa character!

  20. Kobe Faker Says:

    “Still missing th he #1 pass route

    That is the crossing pattern

    Hopefully they run Godwin some crossing routes with YAC

    Kobe Faker have watched alot of patriots/Brady football and the play design and sequence is still way off

    There is no isolation and rub concepts

    Leftwich runs design pick plays in the endzone but nothing in the rest of the field

    The Leftwich sequence of calling plays is pathetic”

    Kobe Faker

  21. Alexander Nascimento Says:

    Só, with lesser long routes, it is possible to imagine that our receivers will be less prone to pull a hamstring? It seems to me that way. Am I overthinking this?

  22. Ndog Says:

    You people miss the entire point, this is clearly a better strategy in today’s football so why did it takes us bringing in QB to change? Shouldn’t a coach thats worth a crap have done this instead using an offense from the 70’s?

  23. Ftmyersbuc Says:

    JOE you forgot to include a jameis nut hugger trigger warning. NDOG 👀 at you… don’t want you to have a heart attack from these kinds of articles.

  24. hammerhead Says:

    Well, who’s going to complain if they’re winning games?

  25. Ndog Says:

    Oh yes you guys are right I’m pissed now. The problem is we’re all going to be pissed pretty soon when this team is an absolute crapfest and they have no players and we’re done for the receivable future and Jameis is destroying us every year in New Orleans. So now it’s me soon it’ll be all of us, I just got a head start.

  26. Anonymous Says:

    Ndog is speaking facts. Most hate to admit it

  27. Rayjay1122 Says:

    Ndog, I personally don’t give a crap about your point. You are a Winston fan and not a Bucs fan. Bucs fans just want their team to win regardless of what it takes. Now shut your pie hole.

  28. Karma Says:

    Lol…Did you see Mike Evans catch that long bomb from Tom Brady?

    He expected to get pummeled yet it was thrown in stride and he got massive YAC.

    That is the difference between the Goat and Winston. Winston was sharp on comebacks and curls. He couldn’t hit receivers in stride often enough. Hence DJax couldn’t unload like he was designed for.

    Plus the aggrevation of so many turnovers, plus the off field antics, plus he was given 5 years to impove, plus the knuckle head wanted $30+ mil, plus a greater than 50 chance Licht would have lost his job if he kept him for one more year as would have BA. Can you blame the GM for saving his own arse and reputation?!

    Tommy was not given a run game either…Fournette fell into our lap! Stop looking backwards and look to getting to the dance floor we call Playoffs…GO BUC’S!!!

  29. El Buco Realisto Says:


    What an insult to Mr Coach Bilicheat!!!!!!!!!!!! ole stale biscuit should never been even considered, let alone mentioned in the same sentence as to a winning coach!!!!!!!!!!!!! You better count how many seasons ago was that winning season back in 2015 for ole stale biscuit!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The sheep better start to compare ole stale biscuit’s one playoff victory to all of Mr Coach Bilicheat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    How about you compare ole stale biscuit with the most “overrated” coaches in NFL history!!!!!!!!!! And that would be hard because bruce arrogance is tops on that list!!!!!!!!!!!! The “real” fans know that the sheep and so-called fans are drunk and stupid and that is why they buy all of bull spit that ole biscuit spouts!!!!!!!!!!! But what is the local media’s excuse??????????
    The truth will be exposed!!!!!!!!!!!

    Go Broncos!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! errrrrrrrr I mean, go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  30. Bush's Coke Spoon Says:

    Alexander Nascimento Says:
    “… with lesser long routes, it is possible to imagine that our receivers will be less prone to pull a hamstring?”


    I still believe that it has more to do with hydration, but it’s possible, I guess. Arians seems to believe that workload has something to do with it.

  31. El Buco Realisto Says:

    Rayjay1122 Says:
    September 26th, 2020 at 11:09 am
    “Bucs fans just want their team to win regardless of what it takes.”

    This is the “Real” fans opinion as well!!!!!!!!!! But “winning” could require the firing of old stale biscuit and bringing the “right” kind of regime!!!!!!!!!!!! Not the overrated and desperate ole stale biscuit that is supposedly “all in” but will fall short in the desperate one year window that will leave the roster in shambles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. Buc1987 Says:

    Ndog….6-10 in 2015… 9-7 in 2016…5-11 in 2017….5-11 in 2018….7-9 in 2019.

    All of THAT is a crapfest.

  33. Clean House Says:


  34. Buc1987 Says:

    Realist…you act as if Arians has been here for 3 years and you’ve had enough.

    It’s only been 1 season and 2 games….

    Your schtick is getting as “stale” as Ndog’s biscuit…

    Who’s Arians replaced with? Some other crappy coach as usual?

    You 2 need to get a grip!

    Go Bucs! (Where? I have no idea.)

  35. Jmarkbuc Says:

    Clean House


  36. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    So long as we’re winning I’m happy.

    Some people just want to complain. That’s part of the reason I post here less. I’m not burned out on the team, I’m burned out on the trolls and negativity.

    We’re going to the Superbowl this year, and people still find reason to whine.

  37. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    El Buco Realisto Says:
    “…one year window that will leave the roster in shambles!”

    How so? We’ve got some good players finally. Young ones. Most of the veterans are on one year deals.

    Now, you might wonder what happens next year? Well, I wondered the same thing, and they still resigned JPP and Suh.

    Losing Gradkowski will be no big loss certainly. If we go to the Superbowl, then we might lose Brady. If not, he’ll stay another year. That would make it worth it in my book.

    In the end, the truly expensive players are all on short term contracts, and the good young players are mostly on long ones.

    Your claim therefore make zero sense.

  38. Buccaneer Bonzai Says:

    Karma, DJax didn’t get yards because he sucked. He still does suck. He’s done absolutely nothing since leaving.

  39. Defense Rules Says:

    Good stuff Joe. Brady looks ‘uncomfortable’ Week 1 against the Saints, but then again it was his FIRST GAME with his new Bucs’ teammates & without any preseason games. He looked a lot more comfortable in Week 2 against the Panthers, and it looks like the Bucs focused on running plays that were more inline with his past experiences. Kudos for that.

    Whether that same approach would’ve worked against the Saints in Game 1 is anybody’s guess. But at least they made adjustments, and it worked against the Panthers. Can’t help but wonder what adjustments will be in store this week against the Broncos.

  40. PSK Bucs Fan Says:

    And Evan s. Being slowed with an injury, Godwin missing a game , and Scotty getting hurt had no effect on tge routes being run……

  41. Cainishere Says:

    No Joe, We witnessed the birth of our defense and became angry placing 3rd in total offense. Why were we angry at placing 3rd?
    Because we had Jameis KING of the PAPER CHAMPIONS!!
    The defense was playing for nothing the offense played for nothing.
    With Jameis, the team had to dummy up the offense so that he could handle it.
    Here is a typical conversation in the huddle, “hey guys somebody get open,
    I can’t remember what we just called in. I forgot what we do on this play” Wanna put a few dollars on it?
    Let’s not forget the all-time favorite, getting mad at teammates and then going out onto the field to throw away the game, deliberately.
    Then he goes out and says that he wasn’t taught anything in Tampa,
    BY ALL THOSE COACHES. Saints feel sorry for the man.
    Poor Jameis, perhaps after Jameis reaches that magical age where you begin to see yourself, only then will he begin to be a great QB.

  42. Karma Says:

    Question: How many Super Bowls did Bellicheat win before Brady got to NE?

    Answer: Same as B.A.

  43. Bellingham Bucs Fan Says:

    Pats ball can be boring for casual fans. Also, Winston is a headcase. Can’t fix that with weapons, schemes, or game plans.

  44. Bird Says:


    Hey little guy.
    Jameis thru a better 15-25 yard ball. That was his bread and butter
    How is that hard to realize?

    Short passes /touch passes were terrible

    Not that difficult to figure out

    Brady ran patriots shorter throws. Why not keep it like that when no preseason and limited practice Oh yah. And he is 43. No need to wear out his arm throwing deep all the time.

    Seems obvious to me.

    But again …its disgusting to you.
    I think you are in your 50’s. You act like 5
    Keep it up though . We all enjoy a good laugh.

  45. m0j0 Says:

    Brady is the master at timing throws. Throwing to a spot before the receiver is there. Just like the back shoulder throw to Evans for a TD. Arians and Leftwich are adapting their playbook to suit the QBs strengths. Good decision imo.

  46. BA Redzone Says:

    @Bush Coke —- 🤣😂🤣😂. Southpark Santa caption – perfect! Hilarious

  47. El Buco Realisto Says:

    Bruce arrogance is NOT molding the offense!!!!!!!!!!!!

    ole stale biscuit is just MOLDY!!!!!!!!!!!!

    No winning seasons since 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  48. Darin Says:

    You beat me to it. Ndog actually proved himself wrong in his post. Winston was a better passer at distance than short. Brady not. So the offense is tailored to the qbs strengths. That’s good coaching. Rest comes down to execution. Now having said that Brady is looking tight on those deep balls. Keep firing away coach! Glad you listened to me on the Fournette flea flicker too! How bout popping a couple 4 wide draw plays in there this week?

  49. Dapostman Says:

    Winston’s best was outside the pocket. They didn’t run any of that roll out stuff. It was 7 step drops and “keep firing”.

    I think Arians had an epiphany. He wants to win a SB. No one is going to win it with his no risk it offense so he is going to ride Tom Brady’s coattails and offense to do it. I don’t think it’s going to happen but I believe Arians does.

  50. Mirrormirroronthewall Says:


    You hit them with the truth. But they knew they were liars to begin. Tom is done. They will have to live with that truth soon enough.

  51. Cdog Says:

    To coach Arian. Your coaching experience is a mile long with nothing accomplish no NCAA championships n no Superbowl wins n n only as a assistant u got2 u get it a assistant not the man head coach u get it nothing so stop picking on the GOAT. He has 6 rings with one head coach in 9 superbowls. So y don’t u wake up n smell the coffee