Still Leaning To The Under

July 8th, 2020

Skittish on betting the over

When sportsbooks first released NFL season-win totals, the Bucs were sitting at 9.5. And for one former general manager and NFL suit, there are too many questions in a weird, weird NFL year for him to lay cash on the over.

A brand new quarterback in an offense foreign to the one he ran (with great success) for nearly two decades and no offseason, that combination is too much for Michael Lombardi to swallow.

A former gopher for Bill Walsh, Al Davis and Bill Belicheat, Lombardi is just uncomfortable about park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady having no offseason.

“My instincts tell me under,” Lombardi said of the 9.5 win total. “To me, when you change systems, and you go from something you are very comfortable with and you really feel is tailored for your game, and you have to go meet someone new and try to start all over without any offseason program without any kind of real ability to kind of know and feel out your teammates, I think that is problematic.

“I think Bruce Arians … but you have to be honest with yourself and see that Tom likes to throw the ball in the middle of the field. And if you watch the Patriots offense, that’s what he does.

“That’s not necessarily what the Bucs offense is all about.”

Lombardi believes the Bucs won’t have any easy wins or blowout victories because the team will be banking on so many new parts with no offseason. In addition to Brady, those players include rookies Tristan Wirfs (right tackle) and Antoine Winfield, a projected starting safety.

Lombardi does believe, however, the Bucs have the defense to make a run. He’s just worried about the offense starting too slowly.

“Look, I think they played really well on defense last year,” Lombardi said. “Give all the credit in the world to Todd Bowles. They were No. 1 against the run last year. They were No. 15 in yards. On third down they were the fourth-best team. Shaq Barrett played lights out. He was sensational.

“They have a lot of things they built on [from] last year. But now you take a step up. Now they have become the hunted one.”

Joe thinks Lombardi hit the nail on the head with the rookies. Factoring in the rookies and Rob Gronkowski and Brady, the Bucs could have five new starters on offense. Yes, Joe thinks there is a chance Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson will start.

Could four rookies be ready to contribute with so little experience come Week 1 in New Orleans?

The way Joe looks at it, this could be like the Super Bowl-winning season when Chucky came to Tampa. The offense didn’t hum until Brad Johnson got healthy for the playoffs.

Then again, that team had a full offseason to learn the new offense.

6 Responses to “Still Leaning To The Under”

  1. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Don’t sleep on our Defense. We have the entire starting 11 back and we have added Winfield. Our younger players, White, Davis, Dean, SMB, Whitehead & Edwards have all gained valuable experience.
    Keeping our #1 run defense and improving our secondary is likely.

    And, when you have an offense that turns it over less….

  2. Rayjay1122 Says:

    So, pick the under because Brady can’t win 10 games with loads of great talents to throw to? All because of no off season practices so far? I guess the sickness only impacts the Bucs.

    Total nonsense.

  3. Joe Says:

    I guess the sickness only impacts the Bucs.

    On face value, you are correct. All teams are in the same pinch. Bbbuuuttt…

    The two teams the Bucs will have to battle to win the division, the slimy Saints and the Dixie Chicks, aren’t breaking in new quarterbacks.

  4. james west Says:

    may be true, but we ain’t talking bridgewater, rivers, goff, johnny football, or any other QB you want to mention we are talking about the GOAT, who we know has been having private workouts, with his squad, he already has chemistry with gronk, how long do you honestly think him evans and godwin going to take to click? come on evans made manziel look like all world in college, won’t be no more balls thrown behind his receivers unless it’s a backshoulder pass on purpose, ya’ll stressing bout nothing imho, brady going to know what the defense is running and check to the appropriate play, at the line, we going to shock the world when we go into new orleans week one and beat the dirty taints, bank on it

  5. Ron Says:

    Everyone always feels a coach is the one who develops the system, a system is usually develop from a coach and a franchise QB working for a time together and then those who were around that system feed off of it and when given a chance to be a head coach then develop and draft a QB that fits that system or a variation of that system. But when you have a established coach and establish QB the system is tailored to what the QB does well and the coach orchestrates the play calling to the feel of the game with just a little variance for times when the defense is dominating. As the saying goes a champion is one who can take victory and defeat and treat the two imposters the same. Brady is not going to have any issues running the offense, chemistry is always the biggest issue, but if the QB is not shy in saying what he wants from each player and the players are receptive and let the QB know their strengths and weaknesses, the chemistry will come much faster.

  6. unbelievable Says:

    Do we Actually have the defense though?

    What’s the status of JPP’s surgery?

    What’s the status of Vea’s surgery?

    Has Shaq signed his contract yet?

    Those 3 guys are kinda important…