Might Bucs Offense Stay The Same?

July 10th, 2020

Numbers say good fit

Many folks, including Joe, are really puzzled how the Bucs’ new short-passing, dump-off-to-the-running-back quarterback, park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Tom Brady, will do in no-risk-it-no-biscuit Bucco Bruce Arians’ offense.

Arians has already stated he believes it is better for one smart guy (Brady) to learn a new offense than it is for 10-15 other guys to learn a new offense. That seems reasonable.

It also seems gambler Warren Sharp thinks this hand-wringing over what offense will be run might just be overblown.

Sharp, a noted handicapper often seen on FS1 and formerly a fixture on local sports radio, dives deep into stats to try to gain an edge in gambling. His 2020 NFL Preview was just released Thursday and naturally Joe downloaded a copy.

It seems when it comes to Brady, he will slide into Arians’ offense quite nicely, Sharp suggests.

Ignoring the interceptions, Winston was great from an efficiency perspective. Against these stacked boxes he averaged 10.1 YPA with a 59% success rate both far superior
to what he averaged against light boxes.

Like Winston, Tom Brady was great passing against stacked boxes. His 2019 splits:

8+ man box: 8.4 YPA, 52% success, 109 rating
7 or fewer: 6.5 YPA, 49% success, 90 rating

The difference for Brady was that he didn’t throw the interceptions that Winston did.

Just a tip (these days you need a glossary in your lap while reading some football stories): A “success rate” is when a play gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down. YPA = Yards per attempt.

So, per Sharp, Brady should slide into Arians’ offense rather well.

This is good to know because the offseason has been a total trainwreck, and it seems so too will be training camp.

5 Responses to “Might Bucs Offense Stay The Same?”

  1. Buczilla Says:

    I like gobbledygook stats about as much as I like ugly women and warm beer. I just wanna watch so damn football already. 😛

  2. Bucsfanman Says:

    Buczilla- Don’t forget karaoke and bad food!
    The “scheme” argument”/debate is so overblown, it’s ridiculous. Besides NOT throwing INTs, Brady throws to OPEN WRs. Sometimes, guess what? Yea, it’s a checkdown. And ANY yards is better than no yards or an interception.
    Last time I checked, football was about winning, not about how many yards you can throw on a single play.

  3. BigHog Says:

    I’ve seen Mr. 5000 hit many a reciever in stride, no QB is pin point perfect, as you will soon see…the interceptions should go down, NE12 has a lot more experience than Mr. 5000….if we have no running game NE12 might feel the pressure to make a few extra plays down field (we pray for a respectable ground game) The game on Offence will look a lot different but will the wins and loses add up differently …we shall soon see!!!

  4. SOEbuc Says:

    Godwin and Evans are All-Pro route runners. People that have their numbers wrong about Brady not being be able to go deep and he’s won 6 rings because he always had a check down RB. Not to mention all the other WR/TE, Brady, Godwin, and Evans are gonna gut secondaries.

  5. Oneilbucs Says:

    The only thing I’m worried about is the defense and if we can get a 1,000 yards rushing with 1 runningback . Yall keep talking about Brady but Brady doesn’t play defense or do he kick field goals . You have to look at the hold team .