Danger!

July 16th, 2020

So Joe just got the Football Outsiders 2020 Almanac last night. Between that and Joe’s copy of Warren Sharp’s 2020 Football Preview, many eye-opening Bucs trends and deep-stat studies will be seen here before training camp is scheduled to start in 12 days.

The Bucs’ chapter on Football Outsiders Almanac is written by jet-flyin’, kiss–stealin‘, data-analyzin’, Bucs-film-studyin’, limousine-ridin’ Thomas Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times. And Joe can just hear Bassinger.

“Danger, Bruce Arians! No, Bruce Arians!”

Now Joe has written that Arians’ shelf life with the Bucs is limited. He turns 68 in October and has three more years on his contract and park-violating, home-invading, NFLPA-ignoring Bucs quarterback Tom Brady, soon to be 43, who Arians lusted for this offseason, sees his contract expire after next season.

Feel free to do the math.

Bassinger sort of wonders if Brady has one more good season left in him. Bassinger noticed disturbing trends with Brady last year in New England that should raise red flags in Brady’s fight against Father Time.

In what has become an annual Football Outsiders tradition, let’s review the warning signs that we’re on the precipice of Bradymaggedon. Last season, he posted:

• his lowest touchdown total (24) since 2006.
• the lowest touchdown rate (3.9) of his career.
• his lowest completion rate (60.8%) since 2013.
• his lowest yards per attempt (6.6) since 2002.
• his lowest yards per completion (10.9) since 2008.
• his lowest passer rating (88.0) since 2013.

Bassinger went on with other elements, but you get the drift. Brady’s age may be beginning to show.

Now the NFLPA is still trying to hatch out a battle plan with the NFL to come up with official procedures and protocols thanks to “The Sickness.” Some have been established. Some have not.

Both sides expect the salary cap to drop next year. Some, like NFL and former general manager talking head Michael Lombardi, believe the cap could drop as much as $20 million next season unless the two parties can agree on borrowing money from future cap space.

So what appeared to be a two-year window for Brady and Arians to get the Bucs to the Super Bowl may be a one-year shot if the cap is going to drop next year. Joe is fully convinced the 2021 defense will look completely different if the cap drops.

But if the trends Bassinger’s spotted are not just flukes, it puts all the more pressure on the Bucs to win now. As in 2020.

33 Responses to “Danger!”

  1. Blind Melon Says:

    or more likely, Brady’s ‘decline’ isn’t able to carry the people around him any more… Completely different situation in Tampa.

  2. Tampabaybucfan Says:

    Just don’t throw it to the wrong team

  3. Youngbucs Says:

    And watch what a difference a year makes.

  4. Rayjay1122 Says:

    Apples and oranges. The Patriots offense was very low on talent overall. I think Brady will post career best stats this season.

  5. Pryda...sec147 Says:

    Yeah you can’t compare our offense which was top 5 vs the crap they had yet they still made playoff. Don’t turn the ball over and last year we were 10 win team easy possibly 12

  6. PSL Bob Says:

    Agree! I think/hope Brady’s decline last year was more a reflection of the weapons he had around him than a decline in talent. Sure, there’s going to be a drop off with age, particularly at his age, but he’s still Brady. Plus, this year, I think he’s got a lot to prove to Belicheat and his other detractors. That chip on his shoulder will be bigger than ever, and the Bucs have the firepower to bring his stats back to a HOF level.

  7. Cobraboy Says:

    Even Tom Terrific can’t make up for lack of talent.

    There is a reason he wanted out of NE.

    Ask Steve Young if talent makes a difference.

  8. Sport Says:

    An average Brady is more than enough for significant improvement and a playoff run.

    And as stated above the Patriots were bereft of talent. Cam is gonna get creamed behind that Oline. They will get exposed. And Brady will unleash our oline.

    In BA I Trust!

  9. Cobraboy Says:

    I also do NOT buy the “Arians is getting old” line.

    68 was older 40 years ago, but not today. Arians is in the meat of his coaching ability and knowledge.

  10. DavidBigBucsFan99 Says:

    7 less tds and 22 less ints than Mr. 30/30. I believe this year he will throw at least 31 tds and no more than 15 ints 65% completion rate . If that’s the case watch these same people try to make excuses it was the people people around him.

  11. idiaznet Says:

    I watched all of the games for NE for that last 2 years. In 2018 Tony Romo said that Brady has enough knowledge to know who to throw to before the snap based on the defense. Which allows for a quick release. His arm is still strong enough and his knowledge will prevent teams from blitzing so much like they did against Jameis. As well as last year Brady had really young guys he couldn’t get on the same page with that constantly ran rounded or short routes on him. Causing him to lose faith in their abilities to get the job done.

    On the flip side Cam and Jameis have long throwing motions and both were slow to read the defenses to see where to throw. Jameis constantly was forcing throws and that was one of his problems. you could see that even when he made good throws other guys were wide open and he skipped them to get the ball to Evans or Godwin. He lost faith in his boy TE80 and rarely hit the back out of the backfield opting for the big hitter instead.

    I think we will see a Brady that has the fire and determination along with a rejuvenated Gronk allowing for his outlet to get the ball down the middle is only going to help us so much. Brady’s quick decision is going to make the OL look like stars. Less time to block means less sacks and less problems on offense.

    Just my humble Opinion.

  12. Waterboys Says:

    Joe- I love your use of “the Robot” from original Lost in Space TV series in the 60’s. I actually preferred this series to Star Trek as the special effects seemed less hokky. Watching re-runs in the early to mid 70’s, I developed a crush on Penny Robinson! As for the Bucs and Brady, we dont need him to be vintage 2000’s Brady, if he performs as well as Brad Johnson did here in the early 2000’s, we will all be happy!

  13. Bradinator Says:

    Tom Brady is getting older?! Who knew? Of course he’s “lost a step” but he’s a stationary, pocket passer, not Michael Vick. He can still throw it long enough since we don’t have anyone outside of Miller that has long speed. He’ll get the ball where he needs to, with less INTs than we’re used to seeing. So what if he only throws 30 TDs. His ratio maybe would have put us in the playoffs.

  14. Craig Says:

    Seems like all of those low spots are still higher than our previous QB could do with a bucketful of talent. Brady only had a cupful of talent to work with.

    It might be spectacular in comparison to prime Brady, but this season will be spectacular for Bucs fans. Probably even be spectacular, except for two or three places, for the rest of the league.

  15. Tampabuscsbro Says:

    You know Thomas Bassinger seems to be grinding his axe about Brady since he got here. Essentially making him the new Tom Jones.

  16. Alanbucsfan Says:

    Brady is not the ?
    The ?s are Cappa, Wirfs, Rojo and Vaughn and, of course, whether or not D Smith plays.

  17. Allbuccedup Says:

    Let’s just hope Brady doesn’t go down if he does the seasons lost. No depth except TEs

  18. SKBucsFan Says:

    I agree cobraboy. Your next president will be 74 or 77. Aside from health concerns BA could coach for a few more years

  19. stpetebucsfan Says:

    @Joe

    I grasp your point about a plunging salary cap hurting the Bucs. We expect to lose JPP…SUH…maybe Shaq..LVD?…

    But if the cap is dropping for everybody won’t that mean all teams have the same problem as the Bucs. Starting with KC who just spent their cap for the next few years on the very best QB in football. Mahomes is great but that SB team has a LOT of talent. How are they going to deal with it?

    To be honest I miss D.R. up on Lake Lanier or wherever…he was great at taking the time to truly analyze the cap from the perspective of balance…money for both O and D and he seemed to keep up with teams.

    I do not know which teams will be hurt the worst by the cap I suspect it varies by situation. For example already have a 20 million dollar head start on the Chiefs who will pay Mahomes 45 million while we pay Brady just 25 million.

    I think those salaries are a bargain for both teams but it will certainly require more creativity on the Chiefs part to balance cap issues.

  20. El Buco Realisto Says:

    Wish that the local media would look at ole stale biscuit’s trends!!!!!!!!!!! That old loser of a head coach needs to be exposed for the fraud he is!!!!!!!!!!!! Let us take a peak, sheep!!!!!!!!!!!

    2016 7-8-1
    2017 8-8
    2018 quit like a little [email protected]% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    2019 7-9

    Ole stale biscuit folds like a lawn chair during NFL games!!!!!!! Most overrated and overhyped coach in the NFL!!!!!!!!!!! The sad part is in a year or two when the sheep finally see , in what shambles state, that ole stale biscuit leaves the franchise in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  21. stpetebucsfan Says:

    2012 Taking over for Joe Pagano who got cancer while coaching the Colts…

    Arians led the Colts to a 9–3 record, part of one of the biggest one-season turnarounds in NFL history. The nine wins are the most by an interim head coach in NFL history!

    2013

    On January 17, 2013, the Arizona Cardinals and Arians agreed on a 4-year deal that would make Arians their head coach. In the 2013 NFL draft Arians took a chance on troubled LSU defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, who had been kicked off the LSU football team as well as arrested for possession prior to the draft.

    Arians is the first Cardinals coach since Norm Barry back in 1925 to record at least nine wins in his first season, with a record of 10-6 for 2013.

    The Cardinals finished the 2014 season with an 11–5 record and were the #5 seed in the NFC. The 11 wins tied a Cardinals franchise record for most wins in a season.

    Arians led the Cardinals to a 9–1 start, best in the NFL, but injuries to starting quarterback Carson Palmer (who was 6–0 as the starter) and backup Drew Stanton, (who was 5–3 as starter) led to the Seattle Seahawks claiming the divisional title with a 12–4 record. Roughly half the team was put on IR between week 8 and week 17. The injury plagued Cardinals were eliminated by the Carolina Panthers in the first round of the NFL 2015 playoffs,

    2015

    After starting 3–0 for a second consecutive season, in 2015, Arians led the Cardinals to a franchise record in season wins, ending the season with a 13–3 record.

    As Paul Harvey used to say….”Now you know the rest of the story…”

  22. John Says:

    Good decisions from TB12 and the rest will fall into place.

  23. Nick2 Says:

    And he had his worst receiving corp which correlates to every one of those statistics. He cant be on the other end of his passes can he Joe??????

  24. Beeej Says:

    If near-wheelchair-bound Peyton could win a Superbowl in that last season, Brady has no worries

  25. JimbobBucsFan Says:

    Tom Brady has set all kinds of unprecedented milestones in his long NFL career.  He is in uncharted territory regarding longevity for quarterbacks in the league. He has obviously created an ongoing regime for himself of health and conditioning practices based on the current levels of knowledge of sports science today.

    With that said no one can really predict what might happen in the next two years (or more). It remains possible that mother nature says “OK, you’ve reached your limit now.”.  He could hit a point where a dramatic fall-off due to age occurs at any time.  It might be seen as like falling off of a cliff or it could just be a  slower downhill  regression.

    I am sure that the “brain trust” of the Glazers, Licht and Arians took into consideration the health and age factors for both Brady and Arians when they decided to go all-in for the Superbowl run in the next two years. Keeping the window open after that is going to be a tall order.

    Should we fail to go far in the play-offs this year, who knows what dramatic steps the franchise will be willing to take next year to put the team over the top. 

    For the time being I am anxious to see this season happen and I can’t wait to see how all of this unfolds.

    Go Bucs! Win now!

  26. Joe Says:

    Joe- I love your use of “the Robot” from original Lost in Space TV series in the 60’s. I actually preferred this series to Star Trek as the special effects seemed less hokky.

    Same here! Always thought Star Trek was boring — though significantly better than Gunsmoke (the Robinson girls!). Only problem with Lost in Space was that something stupid would happen at the end to prevent them from returning to earth. Sort of like Gilligan’s Island. He would do something stupid at the end of the show to prevent them from being rescued.

  27. JimbobBucsFan Says:

    Muchas gracias!

    Thank you stpetebucsfan for your enlightened positive counter of the attack on BA by our our illustrious cohort “El Realisto Morono”. He is of course one of the “border line trolls” who seem to revel in dwelling in negativity and who hangs out here among “the real fans”. By fans I mean the sports fan-atics who actually cherish and support our Tampa Bay Buccaneers, year in and year out, win or lose.

    Go Bucs! In BA I trust!

  28. Bucsfanman Says:

    As other posters alluded to above, just don’t throw the ball to the other team. We were a 10-win team last year if not for the high TO rate, among other things.

  29. Cobraboy Says:

    When you’re 12, Penny Robinson is a babe…

  30. Formerly Tampa 2 Says:

    Joe, sure are a lot of negative articles concerning Brady lately! Sure hope Brady remembers all these writers & pundits when he’s kickin ass this season!

  31. Joe Says:

    When you’re 12, Penny Robinson is a babe…

    LOL You are a dirty old man Cobra! 🙂

    Joe was a young tyke when that show first aired.

  32. gp Says:

    Rayjay1122 Says:
    July 16th, 2020 at 8:59 am

    Apples and oranges. The Patriots offense was very low on talent overall. I think Brady will post career best stats this season.

    What he said!

  33. gp Says:

    Joe Says:
    July 16th, 2020 at 9:34 pm

    When you’re 12, Penny Robinson is a babe…

    LOL You are a dirty old man Cobra! 🙂

    Joe was a young tyke when that show first aired.

    HEY!
    I resemble that!