The Hype Continues
May 7th, 2020
“Brady has been around the block, fellas.”
When Joe reads something like this and factors in where it came from, Joe gets the shivers from all the playoff talk.
The Bucs have become the darlings of the offseason. That’s what happens when you sign a quarterback who has six rings and pull off a trade for a Hall of Fame tight end that may have a personality bigger than his big-personality head coach.
So when Joe read Albert Breer’s new mailbag column from Sports Illustrated hyping up the Bucs, it made Joe pause. Remember the SI jinx?
Asked what team that missed the playoffs last season has the best chance to make the playoffs this year, Breer said that is a no-brainer.
From seed (@seed32041243): What is the non-playoff team that improved their chances the most of making the playoffs during the offseason?
Albert Breer: Easy answer: Tampa. They added a legendary quarterback and a legendary tight end, even if those guys aren’t quite what they were a few years back, and got a tackle that some considered to be the best in the draft in the teens. The defense, with a top-shelf coordinator in Todd Bowles at the controls, started to ascend at the end of last year. …
I don’t know if we’ll get vintage Brady in 2020, but I feel comfortable saying that Bruce Arians’s crew will turn it over a lot less this year. So the Bucs would be on my short list.
Maybe Joe is just paranoid but this shutdown as a result of The Sickness really is worrisome. It doesn’t matter how good your quarterback is or your receivers are. If they aren’t on the same page, they will struggle.
Could this be something like Chucky’s first season with the Bucs? You know, the players were trying to learn a complex playbook and while the offense sputtered, the defense bailed them out time and again.
And once the Bucs hit the playoffs, all the rust and kinks on offense were worked out and the Bucs offense was rolling.
May 7th, 2020 at 5:25 am
We were on the verge without the acquisitions, IMO. We lost several games in the waning moments that might’ve put us at 10-6. With Brady? With Gronk? With all the DL returning?
It’s not a stretch to think that we’ll be competing for a playoff spot.
May 7th, 2020 at 6:05 am
Hmmm, I see that you’re still bragging on Chucky’s offense. Sorry, but the story of our 2002 Super Bowl year was totally the Bucs’ DEFENSE, one of the Top-5 defenses of all times by many accounts.
That DEFENSE set the Bucs’ offense up for success in BOTH the regular season and in the playoffs. TURNOVERS tell the story IMO. During the season, our 2002 DEFENSE forced 38 takeaways (yup, 38), while our 2002 offense turned the ball over 21 times in the regular season. That Turnover Differential of PLUS 17 is why we went 12-4 in the regular season. In our 4 losses, the Bucs’ offense turned the ball over 9 times (and 3 times each in 2 of those losses).
In the playoffs, it was the DEFENSE that turned it up a notch (actually many notches). The Bucs’ DEFENSE forced 13 takeaways in just 3 games (an average of OVER FOUR per playoff game), allowing our offense to capitalize (COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL?).
Our #1 ranked DEFENSE that year only allowed 196 points in 16 games, and only 37 points in the playoffs. What’s most remarkable to me is that it had 31 INTs that year (yup 31), of which DB ran back 3 for TDs.
Our #18 ranked offense that year scored 346 points (of which 5 TDs came from the defense), so the offense really only scored an average of 19.4 PPG (and after all those defensive takeaways no less). But yes, they did score a bunch (106 points) in the playoffs, aided by 13 takeaways that included 4 Pick-6 by the Bucs’ DEFENSE).
DEFENSE wins championships.
May 7th, 2020 at 6:39 am
As a Bucs fan, I’m cautiously optimistic.
May 7th, 2020 at 6:45 am
Great analogy, Joe. Also, is there talk about Bowles taking over when Arians retires again?
May 7th, 2020 at 6:55 am
“Defense wins championships” ?????
It’s certainly true that in all sports defense is important. In baseball, having a dominant pitcher can win a team the World Series (well unless the other team is stealing the signs). In football, we’ve seen recently that defense has definitely helped teams win the Super Bowl.
For example, in Super Bowl 50 the Denver Broncos had the number one defense and won against a dominant Carolina Panthers offense. The MVP was not Peyton Manning but linebacker Von Miller.
Clearly, a dominant offense wins most Super Bowls. Of the last 30 Super Bowls, 22 (73%) had a dominant offense.
Of course, a dominant offense AND defense is expected to win Super Bowls (bottom right, 9 games), but surprisingly a dominant offense without a dominant defense (13 Super Bowls including last year’s) is also a (more proven) recipe for success.
On the other hand, there are only 5 games where a dominant defense without a dominant offense wins the Super Bowl (including the aforementioned 2015 Denver Broncos).
For the 2019 season, the San Francisco 49ers were ranked #2 in the league with a DVOA of -19.8% only second to New England. Their offense although ranked #7 in the league only had a 7.2% DVOA.
The Kansas City Chiefs are on the opposite spectrum. They were ranked #2 on offense, second to the Ravens, with a DVOA of 22.7%. On defense, they ranked #14th in the league with a DVOA of -3.4%.
Looking at Super Bowl losers, we see a similar story.
Of the 30 Super Bowls, there were only 3 where the winner didn’t have a dominant offense but the loser did; these games were: 2015 Broncos beat Panthers, 2013 Seahawks beat Broncos, and 2002 Bucs beat the Raiders.
Of the 7 games with teams that had dominant defenses but not dominant offenses, 4 of those games lost including the memorable 2006 Manning lead Colts beating the Urlacher lead Chicago Bears. Of the 5 games where a dominant defense without a dominant offense won (bottom left in chart above), only 3 of those did they beat a dominant offense.
In summary, “defense wins Super Bowls” has been debunked. Last year, the four teams making it to the NFC and AFC championship were the top 4 offensive teams (Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots).
This year, Green Bay had neither a dominant offense or defense with a 6.5% and -1.1% DVOA in offense and defense respectively.
The Titans did have a dominant offense posting a 12.9% DVOA on offense and a weak 1.0% defense, clearly not enough to stop the Chiefs.
The 49ers held the Chiefs to 10pts well within the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. As dominating as a defensive performance by the 49ers , it was the Chiefs high powered offense that put up 20+ points within the final few minutes of play that determined the winner.
“Defense wins a championship , not championships”
May 7th, 2020 at 7:03 am
Please remember the phrase ” Pound The Rock” which was Gruden’s mantra and a moniker for ” Run The Damn Ball”. Our highest paid Oline in the league should be able to allow us to do that again , and it is imperative if you want to see the best out of TB12 . The real question is will BA commit to the running attack???
May 7th, 2020 at 7:18 am
Well, they say that teams can take their personality from the head coach, and is there a more “OVERHYPED” coach then ole stale biscuit?????
Forget what the win totals will be, how many national interviews will ole stale biscuit do??? Ole stale biscuit loves the camera more than She-mc93 did!!!!!!!! Now that is saying something!!!!!!!!!!
It’s time to herd the sheep, and put them back in the pen!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2020 at 7:22 am
And it’s time for the Buc realist to come up with something new.
May 7th, 2020 at 7:23 am
If you have a drag race, and you put a Corvette engine in a Mustang, and win. Is it a Ford win, or a GM win? I would love to see the Bucs be the first NFL team to win a SB in their home stadium. I have never rooted for the Patriots. Their reputation of cheating for any advantage taints their record.
May 7th, 2020 at 7:31 am
Think sheep, if the Bucs did go on to win the superbowl, that would bring ole stale biscuit’s career playoff wins to a total of 4 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s time to herd the sheep, and put them back in the pen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2020 at 7:41 am
We squandered at least 3 games last year….perhaps 4……the NY game, and the last two…..
In the Tenn game Jameis turned it over 2 times early for easy scores for Tenn…
Not at all a stretch to get to 10 games.
May 7th, 2020 at 7:53 am
Every year we are champs until..we get punched in the mouth. I see nothing different this year other than an overpaid 43 yr old has been who..bamboozled the Bucs.
May 7th, 2020 at 8:25 am
Anyone know where T-Max went? I see idiot Realist is trolling constantly now to fill the void. Bucs are on the verge of doing great things with one of the most exciting offseasons ever. I mean they bring in the GOAT, the greatest TE of all time, and have a draft that looks to be outstanding. How anyone can look at what is going on and not be optimistic means they are just miserable losers in life. Now when the Bucs make the playoffs this year you need to STFU, get back in your mom’s basement and stay there Fakist!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2020 at 8:26 am
Can we please play a game before we crown us
May 7th, 2020 at 8:31 am
@TheBradyB!tch
Maybe the “real” fans would be more excited about this team, if it was 2015!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No confidence in ole stale biscuit and licht bulb!!!!!!!! Some fans are impressed with on the field performance and not the offseason shopping!!!!!!!! The “real” fans have only seen player “replacement” and not player “development”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It time to herd the sheep, and put them back in the pen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2020 at 8:45 am
^^^^Seriously Realist, someone needs to put YOU back into your padded room.
May 7th, 2020 at 8:52 am
I’m sure Backstabbin’ Jason Licht is cringing at all this playoff talk and fan expectations before the season starts.
May 7th, 2020 at 8:55 am
Could this be something like Chucky’s first season with the Bucs? You know, the players were trying to learn a complex playbook and while the offense sputtered, the defense bailed them out time and again.
It can’t be like chunky first season if everybody already knows the playbook except two free agents and rookies.
May 7th, 2020 at 8:57 am
Let’s take a vote…If you could have one troll no longer commenting on here, who would it be?
A) El Buco Realisto
B) Kobe Faker
C) Other
My vote is A, one of the reasons being he/she has used other people’s names on here. Not cool.
May 7th, 2020 at 9:14 am
D1 … Excellent analysis. We don’t agree on the bottom line, but I loved the methodology.
About a week ago, there was an article on JBF about Brady and ‘Father Time’. My bottom line was that winning championships is about TEAM, not specific individuals. My research led me to the following conclusions:
(Quote) If you look at the last 20 Super Bowl champions (2000-2019), there are a few ‘abnormalities’, BUT … for the most part, DEFENSE wins championships. The SB Champion had a Top-10 defense 16 times (80%), and the Top-5 defense won it in 12 of those 20 years. BTW, the #1 defense won the SB 6 times in those 20 years.
The SB Champion had a Top-10 offense 13 times (65%), and the Top-5 offense won it in 8 of those 20 years. BTW, the #1 offense won the SB only once in those 20 years.
In 10 of those 20 years the SB Champion had BOTH a Top-10 offense AND a Top-10 defense (the word BALANCE comes to mind). However, in only 3 years did the SB Champ have BOTH a Top-5 offense AND a Top-5 defense. (Unquote)
Bear Bryant once said ‘Offense sells tickets, but defense wins championships’. Being a huge Bama fan, I’d never contradict the Bear. But in the ‘modern era’ (2000s), I think that’s changed somewhat. Nowadays, BALANCE seems to be the key. The Chiefs were the perfect example IMO. They’ve had a great offense (Top-10) for several years, but it wasn’t until they improved their defense (to a Top-10) that they finally won the SB.
There’s an excellent analysis of all this (breaks it down by decade) located at https://thefreshtake.net/2020/01/11/what-wins-super-bowls-offense-vs-defense that’s titled ‘What Wins Super Bowls: Offense vs Defense’. The author’s conclusion is that this past 20 years has been overwhelmingly in favor of the defense, BUT with a twist. He claims that ‘Offense gets you to a championship, but defense wins you one’. And that’s where the BALANCE thingie comes in IMO.
May 7th, 2020 at 9:16 am
Yeah A. Right or wrong, his schtick is just getting old.
May 7th, 2020 at 9:24 am
Joe in Michigan my Christmas list includes an ignore button in here
May 7th, 2020 at 9:32 am
Bucs are going all of the way. This year. Maybe next year as well.
May 7th, 2020 at 9:34 am
Heck, haters have been saying Tampa is where players go to retire. In regard to QBs, I’m fine with that! Brady for 1-2 years, then Rodgers for 2-3 years.
May 7th, 2020 at 10:20 am
Let’s temper the hype. There is no given to the playoffs let alone the SB. It would be great, but it has to develop.
May 7th, 2020 at 10:23 am
@joe in Michigan
That is fake news!!!!!!!!! I was Impostered as well as I have gave you the facts already!!!!!! You can ask Joe for a ruling!!!!!!!!!
I and the “real” fans don’t like the false gm and overrated head coach!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2020 at 10:25 am
….and turnovers will lose games no matter how good your offense or defense is
May 7th, 2020 at 10:33 am
I honestly believe from the perspective of effectively positioning us to win…..Gabbert could still get the job done if something happened with Brady. He knows the offense, he’s got a ton of weapons and the defense looks ready. You could literally get a Tannehill 2.0 scenario from Gabbert. I’m not worried either way but I think Brady at 60% is equal or better then Gabbert and I believe Arians feels he can win with Gabbert.
May 7th, 2020 at 10:33 am
With 7 teams making the playoffs there is no excuse for this team not to.
If they don’t ALL management and coaches need to get the axe! Pretty simple.
May 7th, 2020 at 10:38 am
@SC Buc Fan
You have been ignoring the truth most of your life, do you really need a button for it as well???????
IRA ask The Buc Realist: ” Mr Realist, Do sheep really cry?????”
El Buco Realisto says: ” They do in Tampa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
It’s time to herd the sheep, and put them back in the pen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
go bucs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 7th, 2020 at 10:40 am
Pewter
All of Grudens offenses here averaged about 20 ppg. About two tenths of a point better than Dungys.
May 7th, 2020 at 11:27 am
El Buco Realisto Says:
“is there a more “OVERHYPED” coach”
Yes his name is Jon Gruden.
May 7th, 2020 at 12:12 pm
D.R. and D1
Excellent debate between two of my favorite posters. You need to brush up on your ad hominem though. *snark font off*
Your points are so well taken I don’t have anything to debate other than a consensus seems to be forming around whether defense wins championships or offense…the very best teams have BALANCE.
Can’t match you guy’s analysis I’ll be lazy and simply observe as an old dude when I think of great teams…the greatest were balanced. I will also concede that anecdotally I can remember far more defense oriented teams succeeding,,,Bears…Ravens…Bucs…than offensive teams…Jets and Namath?
But the great teams are balanced. When I think of the Steelers I can think of the Steel Curtain or I can think of two HOF WR’s…great running backs..great OL..talented if perhaps not great QB.
Mostly though when I think of great coaching and strategies and styles I think of Don Shula. One of the very RARE coaches who demonstrated flexibility frequently and easily. He always developed strategies around the talent he had…great QB like Johnny U…even the running backs like Lenny Moore ended up being great receivers.
Griese…time to go to a great ground and pound with Csonka, Kiick and Morris.
Don Shula passed this week. Perhaps because I grew up watching Shula I am prejudiced. But in all the great coaches I’ve seen…I’m pretty partial to Paul Brown…nobody is as good as SHULA.
RIP DON SHULA. GREATEST NFL COACH EVER.
May 7th, 2020 at 12:20 pm
Last time I checked, the QB that won last year hasn’t been around the block.
Bucs may improve a lot. The possibly they improve very little is much greater than we think.
The Ravens are the clear Super Bowl favorite on paper, IMO.
May 7th, 2020 at 1:35 pm
Just go past go and go straight to negative …in JBF we trust!
May 7th, 2020 at 1:53 pm
Stpete,
Thank you for your kind words. I haven’t posted in awhile and the last time I recall you were ” under -the-weather “. I hope you’re well.
Regarding the defense wins championships;
I don’t disagree with D.R. when the scope is enlarged to include all sides of ball. In fact, I agree with both you and D.R.. The teams that wins championships , (85% -historical data ) is the teams with the least disparity between their offensive and defensive rankings. Complete teams.
Teams that have had the leagues greatest defenses, Bucs, Bears, Ravens, all 3 won a championship . Therein, lies my point. The NFL’S greatest defensive units only account for 3 titles between them. The question isn’t really answered
May 7th, 2020 at 1:59 pm
Some people are just born stupid.
May 7th, 2020 at 2:14 pm
Stpete,
Cont- unless we ask another question. “Why is offense easier to be consistent than defense ? Specifically, in the course of a regular season as well as playoffs and from season to season?”
D.R.s rebuttal is quite compelling and He relied on strictly facts, as did I. There’s evidence to support either opinion. By asking a different question perhaps the paradigm shifts and we’re left with information that’s forward looking rather than backwards.
In my opinion, and it’s just that..opinion,the process of constructing a team in the current NFL era is statically smarter to build around an offense than defense. I believe there’s no convincing evidence to challenge that premise. But I’m open to any information.
On a personal note, I was shocked by the passing of Coach Shula. I played for him twice and I remain externally greatful for the opportunity He extended to me not once but twice. He was a great coach, and even better Human being.
May 7th, 2020 at 3:22 pm
Defense rules,
The article you referenced is really interesting, thanks for sharing the link.
I’m going to read it again and take a second or two to process some of the information before replying. Again, Interesting article.
Btw, what are your thoughts on the Draft and UDFA signees? I haven’t been on the site lately and would like to know what you think about the players and anything else you’d like to include.
May 8th, 2020 at 6:14 am
D1 … I’m in awe that you played for Don Shula, and I do mean in awe. There are a lot of good coaches IMO, but some are GIANTS. That was Don Shula IMO … a GIANT among coaches.
I appreciate the kind words, and will be the first to say that your opinion was very compelling also. This is gonna sound like a cop-out, but I believe that there’s an element of good old-fashioned LUCK behind every Super Bowl winner. Injuries, strength-of-schedule (and timing of who-you-play-when), a ball tipped here or there … it all adds in the end. There are times IMO when a great offense will whoop a great defense; there are times when the opposite will happen. What do they say in show business? Timing is everything? Ask the 2019 Ravens … 14-2 in the regular season, #1 offense and #3 defense, and they get whooped 28-12 by the much lower-ranked Titans in Rnd 1 of the playoffs. (I bet a lot of people lost money on that one).
StPete nailed it, as always, when he used the term COMPLETE TEAM. I think that’s especially true in this last 20 years or so. Again the Chiefs are a good example. Until they brought their defense ‘up to snuff’ they were only also-rans. Hard to beat a COMPLETE TEAM over the course of a season IMO, because they have not only quality coaching and gobs of starting talent, but also adequate DEPTH to overcome the inevitable injury bug. Just an opinion though; no easy answers.
And on your question about the 2019 draft … beyond Rnd 1, I always take a wait-and-see attitude. To me, after Rnd 1 it’s a crapshoot, and even more-so after Rnd 3. Wirfs I’m convinced is a keeper (and a desperately needed one). Winfield is also a keeper, but not necessarily at Safety in Todd Bowles’ defense (I personally expect to see him play more nickel & dime in this defense this year). I also though wish we’d taken a RB in Rnd 2 (we passed on several potentially good ones, but hey, Vaughn’s no slouch & may be an excellent fit for this particular offense).