A Bridgewater-Jameis Bond
October 1st, 2019
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will bring his 19-12 career record and Pro Bowl experience to the table when he faces on the Bucs on Sunday as Drew Brees’ replacement.
He’ll also bring something in common with America’s Quarterback, Jameis Winston.
Joe is not a big quarterback-ratings guy. It’s a misleading stat when looking at players’ careers, but it can tell a story in some situations. Joe, however, is a big fan of the NFL Films team that compiles data for the ESPN NFL Matchup show.
Per the graphic below, they have illustrated that Bridgewater and Jameis have not been special on third down this season. (You know it’s not pretty when you’re in a bottom-5 with Joe Flacco, Josh Rosen and Kyler Murray.)
Overall, the Bucs rank 20th in the NFL in third-down conversion at 38 percent. They were second in the NFL to the Colts last season at 46 percent.
That’s one area Bucco Bruce Arians certainly wants to improve. That stat also helps illustrate just how good the Bucs have been on first and second downs this year.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:15 pm
Jamies was lights out sunday in third down… Analytics are stupid
October 1st, 2019 at 12:16 pm
Last week was a good start. I believe they were 8-12 on thirs downs. Lets beat them aints!
October 1st, 2019 at 12:23 pm
Let’s just hope he does not plan the me of those pregame “eating W’s” speeches.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:24 pm
What even is a passer rating?
October 1st, 2019 at 12:34 pm
LETS GOO BUCS! DESTROY THEM AINTS
October 1st, 2019 at 12:38 pm
Exactly. If you need a glossary and a calculator to figure it out, it’s not worth wasting breath on. But Joe Buck loves passer ratings.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:45 pm
should get better as the offense & arians/leftwich get more comfortable with each other each week
October 1st, 2019 at 12:47 pm
pitt u r pathetic
October 1st, 2019 at 12:47 pm
be positive. just once.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:53 pm
“If you need a glossary and a calculator to figure it out, it’s not worth wasting a breath on”
But it’s worth writing a article on?
Anyhow, third downs are critical (obviously) and they do need to be better overall. What is the Bucs overall percentage on third down conversions, and more importantly in the red zone, that’s what really matters.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:56 pm
Seems like he takes a lot of sacks on third down regardless bith those guys winston is in first year offense and Bridgewater’s playing for the first time in a while, it should improve
October 1st, 2019 at 12:57 pm
If you’re going to compile a third down statistic, it should also incorporate distance into the equation.
If, after four games, one quarterback has fifty third-and-one opportunities and the other has fifty third-and-seven chances then the stat is worthless.
Sure, the seven vs one yard example I outlined is extreme, but hopefully I proved my point.
If one is searching for a meaningless stat, third down QB efficiency tops the list.
To have any merit, the stat should focus only on a specific distance, say third-and-five.
October 1st, 2019 at 12:58 pm
Should say passer/runner 3rd down rating. All those qbs are runners or can buy more time in the pocket than average qb. One can only assume seeing those names they also count scrambles and called runs also. If Jameis starts tucking a few he could get his oh so important passer rating up. Naaaa just win!
October 1st, 2019 at 1:15 pm
pittshore is possibly the lamest poster on this site.
Can’t even enjoy the win due to his hatred of Jameis
October 1st, 2019 at 1:43 pm
I’m struck by all the young guns who have taken the league by storm since we picked first overall.
October 1st, 2019 at 2:13 pm
This is an above average oline and Jameis can not be holding the ball in the pocket for so long. That’s how guys get injury’s and penalties. One of his flaws the he needs to discover if he wants to be a QB.
October 1st, 2019 at 2:14 pm
*be a good QB.
October 1st, 2019 at 2:19 pm
Would like to see a stat:
How many punts
How many FG attempts
How many scores on first or second down
October 1st, 2019 at 2:20 pm
Also how many first downs on first or second down
October 1st, 2019 at 2:30 pm
Joe,
This seems to me a function of the new offense and playcalling more than anything else (predictability). Can we compare this to what JW’s 3rd down passer rating has been in past years?
It’s early. Four games. Bigger number here is the drop in overall third-down conversion. Joe’s not making a big deal of this. Will take a broader look at the halfway mark.–Joe
October 1st, 2019 at 2:54 pm
They were like 1 for 12 in week one. Just like all of Winston’s interceptions that day, it skews the numbers.
October 1st, 2019 at 2:58 pm
How about we see how many yards the offense has compiled this year. Many of the throws Jameis makes are for first downs on first and second down. I would venture to guess that Bridgewater is averaging many more third down situations per game than Jameis. If so, the low percentage isn’t that useful, especially after just four games.
October 1st, 2019 at 3:24 pm
Per Bill Barnwell
-Jameis Winston vs. the blitz, 2019:
31-of-39, 525 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, 158.3 passer rating
Why not an article on this?
October 1st, 2019 at 3:32 pm
Interesting 3rd down stat – because under Dirk they really had no issues converting 3rd downs – at least outside the redzone anyways. I think this is where they need to get OJ more involved. According to NextGen stats, OJ had an average of over 5 yards of separation on each play – and that’s a lot. Getting OJ back involved in things should be the key to getting everything click – well that and removing Perriman from the field, who has been awful.
October 1st, 2019 at 3:48 pm
the offense isnt making it to 3rd down…we’re making 1st downs on 2nd down….
GO BUCS!!!!!!
October 1st, 2019 at 4:04 pm
Stats are fun. This stat is basically factoring huge swings for TDs that happened to be on 3rd down since this is just passer rating. Also huge swings for throwing an interception on 3rd down with no care or context as to the situation (i.e. 3rd and 20 down 14 with 5 mins to go = probably a forced pass with high % of getting intercepted or not converting).
Usually 3rd down passing success is measured by whether or not you get a first down
.
In terms of QB’s % of getting a 1st down on 3rd down pass plays, Winston is 13th in the NFL at 45%, ahead of Matt Ryan / Dak Prescott / Russel WIlson / Tom Brady / Aaron Rodgers who are all at 40-44%.
Doesn’t take into account the down distance. Still – stats are fun lol.
October 1st, 2019 at 5:14 pm
Jameis led the league in third down conversions last season. It didn’t factor in WSU.
October 1st, 2019 at 5:23 pm
@Joe
Agree with your response to DalvinCook.
It’s VERY early and so the sample size is just too small to be predictive or even represent anything to use analytically.
October 1st, 2019 at 9:03 pm
It stinks this year because of Leftwich play calling.
October 1st, 2019 at 10:39 pm
It’s funny how stats get overlooked when a quarterback and team are winning. All he has to do is win and the vultures will stop circling and throw their own analysis out the window to get on board with the masses. Just win and no one will care about stats like this.
October 2nd, 2019 at 12:40 am
Jameis was #4 in the entire NFL in the 2018 season … we’ll see where he ends up this season and my guess is it will be in the top 10.
October 2nd, 2019 at 10:35 am
45.9% on 3rd downs conversion in 2018, #2 in the NFL. Give it time