Rookie QBs And The Bucs

September 20th, 2019

The plight of rookie QBs.

The fact the Giants decided to throw rookie quarterback Daniel Jones into the fire that is the Den of Depression is a glass half-full/glass half-empty deal for the Bucs.

In the half-full prism, Bruce Arians has never lost to a starting rookie quarterback as a head coach. Neither has Todd Bowles, as both a defensive coordinator and as a head coach.

Recent Bucs history against rookie quarterbacks demonstrates why the Bucs have been the dumpster fire of the NFC this decade. Per Greg Auman of The Athletic, rookie quarterbacks are 12-3 against the Bucs since 2011.

The most famous of those games was the shameful embarrassment of the Tennessee Ready game to open the 2015 season, when gimmick quarterback Marcus Mariota looked like Fran Tarkenton in his prime.

That was the beginning of the end for inept Lovie Smith.

So something has to give, right? Well, John Breech of CBS Sports thinks the Giants are hanging Jones out to dry Sunday when the Bucs host the Giants. And he has NFL history on his side going as far back as 2009.

Out of the 28 games that rookies have started, 17 of them have come after Week 1 and the quarterbacks have gone 5-12 in those games, a winning percentage of just .294. However, two of those starts (Patrick Mahomes and Kyle Allen) came in Week 17 games where competition is harder to judge. For instance, the Saints were resting their starters when Allen made his start for the Panthers last season. If you throw out Week 1 and Week 17, then the record is down to just 3-12 (Rookies getting their first start on the road in Week 1 or Week 17 have gone 7-6).

Breech makes a fair point that rookies who start Week 1 likely have had first-team reps throughout training camp and preseason, so they have a head start over a rookie coming off the bench in the middle of a season.

So what’s going to give? Are NFL and Arians trends against rookie quarterbacks starting on the road going to hold up? Or will Bucs history rear its ugly head? You know, Bucs being Bucs? Same ol’ Bucs?

29 Responses to “Rookie QBs And The Bucs”

  1. Jean Lafitte Says:

    It’s like a 50/50 ball in these parts. It seems historically we play down to the level of struggling teams and have a penchant for making rookie QB’s look like future HOF’s

  2. PriMech54 Says:

    Daniel Jones will make some nice throws. He’ll escape pressure an occasion or two.

    He’ll also get picked off at least twice, sacked 4 times (Vita, Nassib, LVD, Whitehead/Buccanon) and lose the game by 13.

    Saquon will have about 180 from scrimmage but it won’t be enough firepower as the Bucs offense rolls. Mike Evans says hello to the league this sunday and Jameis says F*** you.

    30 Bucs
    17 Giants

  3. unbelievable Says:

    The records of Arians and Bowles in these situations give me hope.

    The record of the Bucs, well…

  4. Tye Says:

    This could either be really good for the Bucs (rookie Qb with no receivers, iffy oline and a lackluster defense) OR really, REALLY bad (lose to a lacking Giants team)…
    YEAH! it’s the Bucs so of the two, a win would be the shocker!

    I’ve heard analysts pick Jones of all the backups starting to have the greatest chance to get the win this week.

  5. GetOverIt Says:

    History against rookie QBs is irrelevant. This is a completely different team. The only carryover from last year is the negativity of fans.

  6. Sport Says:

    What this guy just said ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

  7. Buc Raybolt Says:

    GetOverIt gets it. Rookie QBs have gashed the Bucs because they ran the Tampa 2. That defense only works with a hall of fame player at every level. Otherwise, offenses could rack up yards on short passes. It’ll be different this time, but still have to go out there and execute. Make Jones’s debut one to forget.

  8. Jason S. Mclaurin Says:

    What’s truly sad is that we are shaking in our boots as a fan base and football team over this guy. I like our chances with the new blitz scheme. I think we gonna see a lot of work from the linebackers again this week too. I say we perform and stop Sagone Barkley too. It’s gonna really look like they chose the wrong game to start Jones. They may want Eli back after halftime

  9. FortMyersDave Says:

    If Tampa was in this situation last year with Smith as DC I would say that the Giants would win 42-35 with the Bucs making a comeback after falling behind 35-7 in the third to tie it with 1:02 left only to see Daniel J throw a winning TD to Engram as time runs out making Jones the talk of the NFL for the week…..

    This year: well I am more optimistic that Bowles and BA will not allow the Bucs to let Daniel Jbeat them. Yeah he might make a good play or 2 and Barkley could get some yards so its up to Winston and the offense to put some points on the board and make the Giants play from behind and not have 4 turnovers like they did 2 weeks ago. I say the Bucs win, but knowing Tampa Bay it could be like the Carolina game where it may be a bit tight down the stretch.

  10. ClodHopper Says:

    The coaching vs the culture.

    This is going to be 2 big rams butting heads. Only one can win

  11. Slugglife Says:

    They will be calling screen passes to Barkley all day to neutralize the blitz. It will be up to the cornerbacks and Lbs to win this game and limit his production.

    Like Jordan, you cant stop him. Just gotta contain him.

  12. VA Tom Says:

    Rookie QBs are our bane historically in my opinion because the Coaches have never wanted to change up the offense. Also anytime a new QB plays he going to show you looks you haven’t seen a lot of on tape. His tendencies arent solidified as they are after a few games of NFL play. Just my opinion. Hopefully Bowles embraces mixing it up to find what rattles him.

  13. VA Tom Says:

    Should read defense.

  14. Anonymous Says:

    saquon barkley was seen shopping at the container store this week


    bucs win 29-17

  15. 813bucboi Says:



    GO BUCS!!!!!

  16. Greg Says:

    I’m not feeling very confident either. It’s not that I doubt our defense but which Jameis Winston is going to show up. The turnover machine? The neutered quarterback afraid to make a throw? Or is he going to be unleashed this week against a crappy defense? I’m hoping for the latter.

  17. Bucnjim Says:

    Have no fear Batman’s not here. Word of the new Day in Tampa Bay is Aggression. Plus Ronde Barber is being inducted into the ring of honor. I’m pretty sure the Defense will continue to show up on Sunday’s.

  18. Sport Says:

    Some of you are talking about waning confidence. Understandable. Even if our record had been .500 win % after a win it’d be normal to feel uneasy.

    I say to you, Just watch and have fun. Their is a different air about this team.

    An identity is brewing!

    In BA I Trust!

  19. orlbucfan Says:

    Bucnjim Says:
    September 20th, 2019 at 9:00 am
    Have no fear Batman’s not here.
    Batman (Richard) Wood was a very good defensive player. Most of the defenses he played on were horror shows, too.

  20. diggler Says:

    I hope the coaches and players don’t listen to you “pundits” stop focusing on the QB for this one, it’s all on Barkley and if they can stop him. If they biltz and try to own a rookie QB Barkley will run all over them. Best way to stop a rookie is to make him throw and take away the run. Bucs lose this one sorry guys Defense not that dominate YET!

  21. Bucnjim Says:

    Batman Wood was excellent Batman McCoy not so much. I think he’s still peeling himself off the Panthers turf and wiping the Grass stains off the back of his Jersey.

  22. 74 Bucs fan Says:

    Bowles defense is complex and hard for even a veteran to read. That alone give me hope as there is no question that we will be aggressive and in Jones’ face. The other comfort level for me is that fact that our OL has been taught how to zone block, creating actual holes. I would like to see a great deal of Rojo pounding away at that D.

  23. Jmarkbuc Says:

    What’s our record in ROH games?

    Methinks not good.

    12-3 record for rookie QB’s? Wow, and that doesn’t even count back up QB’s who come in and look like HOFers.

    Hoping for the best, and that the culture is truly changing. This game on paper is a signature trap game for the Bucs.

  24. Wes Says:

    As long as we can stop Saquon, we will be fine

  25. LordCornelius Says:

    This doesn’t mean much to me. If a rookie QB is starting AFTER week 1 it means that wasn’t the plan for the season and things were going bad for the team making the switch.

    Giants not being a good team is why we should win this game more than anything. Suspect defense + sketchy weapons beyond Barkley with a rookie QB starting is why we should win in general.

    But we are the Bucs so we can’t expect to win anything easy lol.

    GO BUCS!

  26. Mike Johnson Says:

    Right LC. We should Win this game. Now how many times have we said this throughout Buc history? I’m hoping this is not a trap game for us. Rooks and backups are known to have feasted on us in the past. Nothing has been or will be easy for these Bucs. They have to play fired up and lights out. They gotta bring it and then some.

  27. LordCornelius Says:

    @Mike Johnson

    I feel like every game is a trap game for the Bucs lol. And the first month of football is just super unpredictable.

    GO BUCS!

  28. D-Rome Says:

    I think the last rookie QB the Bucs lost to was last year against the Ravens where Inept Irk couldn’t come up with a game plan to score more than 12 points. Lamar Jackson out-dueled Jay-Miss with 131 yads and one TD compared to Jameis’ 157 yards, 0 TDs, and one INT for.

  29. BigMacAttack Says:

    Bucs 27 – Giants 10