Unlikely Worst-To-First
August 16th, 2019
“Rock, have you flown coach to Seattle?”
Each year, there are eight basement dwellers in the NFL.
The Bucs, which have embraced losing so well in the post-Chucky era, have made the NFC South basement their home. So much so, Joe refers to last place in the division as “Buccaneers Cove.”
Every once in a while a team rises from the ashes and wins the division after finishing last. Typing for BSPN, Aaron Schatz, the father of Football Outsiders, takes a look at each of last year’s last-place finishers.
Of those eight, the least-likely team to win the division this year, Schatz believes, is the good ol’ Bucs. Now Schatz isn’t shatting on the Bucs, necessarily. He believes the offense may not be as good but the defense will be better.
So why is he down on the Bucs winning the division? Blame the schedule, Schatz said.
Two other facts make a division title particularly tough for the Bucs. First, they lose a home game to play in London, giving them only seven true home games. Second, they have the third-hardest projected schedule in the league, playing strong teams in their division as well as the deep AFC South (and more top-heavy NFC West).
Yeah, that schedule is a killer. And it isn’t just who the Bucs play, but where and when.
The Bucs go nearly two months without a home game. One of those road games is in Los Angeles, and two weeks later the Bucs travel halfway around the planet from Los Angeles to play in London. Roughly three weeks after that, the Bucs head back to the west coast to play in Seattle.
The way the NFL jammed the Bucs so badly on the schedule, no wonder Bucco Bruce Arians is taking regular physicals.
August 16th, 2019 at 9:09 am
Put your suit on and hop on the plane folks. Just another business trip. You think the Patriots would care where they play? No, they’re still going to win. Not an excuse. The bar has been set.
August 16th, 2019 at 9:09 am
Kinda sounds like the doom and gloom BS we had to hear last year when our Savior QB was suspended.
“There’s just NO way we can win any of the first 3 games”…….
Blah blah blah.
Sack up, quit looking for excuses to lose and just WIN.
GO BUCS!
August 16th, 2019 at 9:21 am
Perfect setting for a coach of the year award.
August 16th, 2019 at 9:22 am
6-10.
August 16th, 2019 at 9:24 am
One game at a time…no excuses!
August 16th, 2019 at 9:30 am
We shall go on to the end. We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender,
August 16th, 2019 at 9:37 am
Sweeter after adversity.
August 16th, 2019 at 9:38 am
We open 6-0.
That’ll shut everyone the hell up!
August 16th, 2019 at 9:43 am
I get the home field advantage aspect but really it’s just a plane ride right?
August 16th, 2019 at 9:49 am
GBO:
For you and Joe, a plane ride to Atlanta or Charlotte or New Orleans once in a while is no big deal. Jet-hopping to LA, London then Seattle in a short window catches up with the body. There is a reason NFL teams kvetch about road games
August 16th, 2019 at 10:06 am
If we are 3-2 by London I think we make the wildcards. Really that Thursday Carolina game is a lynchpin
August 16th, 2019 at 10:33 am
From kicking the dirt that Mike McCarthy wasn’t hired ( no team wanted him, obviously) as head coach to declaring coach of the year candidate for B.A.?Interesting…
August 16th, 2019 at 10:36 am
It’s funny when “experts” “analysts” and talking heads think just cus a team was good in 2018 they will be good in 2019
Chew on this
No NFC team has made the playoffs 3 years in a row
Drew Brees finished 2019 playing not like himself and is another year older
Cam Newton has a new throwing motion & had surgery
Falcons have a new offensive coordinator
Panthers are implementing a new defense
Saints lost their center and Mark Ingram
All NFC South teams play the same opponents minus two teams, meaning all teams make at least 2 west coast trips
This time of year no one knows anything
August 16th, 2019 at 10:40 am
Keep an eye on those Raiders. They are young but stacked. A pretty good coach to boot
August 16th, 2019 at 10:46 am
I’d agree, it’s a long way for worst-to-first, but let’s see if I got that right:
This talking head says, it is more likely the Cardinals upset the Rams AND the Seahawks???
And it is also more likely the Jets overcome NE? Never ever!
August 16th, 2019 at 11:00 am
And we will have even extra motivation to beat the Panthers after McCoy kept whining and running his big mouth! Comparing himself to the greats of the Buc’s past, and grumbling that his number wasn’t retired. Also we haven’t had a great home record because we were not good enough to fill our stadium with our fans so giving up a home game is no big deal for the Bucs. As for jet lag go to Seattle two days before the game, etc. Trust BA to find a way! He always does his first year everywhere!
August 16th, 2019 at 12:05 pm
The Raiders have a competent GM that runs their team and are rebuilding the Raiders with emphasis on the OL and defense
August 16th, 2019 at 12:09 pm
Easily the worst job of NFL game scheduling I’ve ever seen.
August 16th, 2019 at 12:46 pm
Travel didn’t seem to bother the Rams a couple years ago when they came into RayJay, dealt with a lightning delay, and left with a win.
Just execute, stop with the BS excuses
August 16th, 2019 at 12:57 pm
None of these supposed ‘experts’ has the foggiest idea what the Bucs record will be this season. The only thing meaningful that Schatz said IMO is that (1) the offense may not be as good as last year; (2) the defense will be better than last year; and (3) we play a tough schedule. That doesn’t tell me a whole bunch that I didn’t already know.
What I do know is this … the Bucs went 9-7 in 2016; they won 3 games by 3 points or less and lost none within that margin. The Bucs went 5-11 in 2017; they won 1 game by 3 points or less but lost 3 games by 3 points. The Bucs went 5-11 again in 2018; they won 1 game by 3 points but lost 4 games by 3 points or less.
A key difference between winning & losing seasons is winning the close games. We accomplished that in 2016 but got eaten alive in 2017 & 2018 in close games. A lot of those close losses had to do with the defense obviously, but a lot also had to do with turnovers. As an example, the turnover differential in the 2017 close losses noted was MINUS 7 and MINUS 11 in 2018. That’s gruesome. BOTH sides of the ball have to play better this year if we expect to win.
August 16th, 2019 at 1:04 pm
Love the picture Joe. The two nicest dudes in local media. Survivors. Queue “Eye of the Tiger”. P.S. miss Roxanne Wilder hanging out with Rock, good times!
August 16th, 2019 at 2:09 pm
Joe Says:
August 16th, 2019 at 9:49 am
GBO:
For you and Joe, a plane ride to Atlanta or Charlotte or New Orleans once in a while is no big deal. Jet-hopping to LA, London then Seattle in a short window catches up with the body. There is a reason NFL teams kvetch about road games
_______
I don’t think it’s as much as a kvetch as it is a “hassle” Joe.
August 16th, 2019 at 3:24 pm
There’s no way they can win any of their first 15 games. Low expectations are good.
August 16th, 2019 at 4:12 pm
Sounds like the usual crap. Go Bucs!!
August 16th, 2019 at 4:13 pm
Falcons 11-5
Saints 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Bucs 4-12
Not likely to even get 2nd place… May (somehow) battle Panthers for 3rd place but it’s hard to see where that could be happen!
August 16th, 2019 at 5:22 pm
Tye Says:
August 16th, 2019 at 4:13 pm
Falcons 11-5
Saints 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Bucs 4-12
Not likely to even get 2nd place… May (somehow) battle Panthers for 3rd place but it’s hard to see where that could be happen!
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